# General > Politics >  In or out of EU Poll

## andyw

Poll for in or out of Eu

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## tonkatojo

11 out to 1 in, at present when I voted for out, so looking good to me.

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## Rheghead

I've not voted cos I haven't made my mind up yet.

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## Kenn

I too am pondering the matter, common sense says IN, but history says OUT.

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## Rheghead

> I too am pondering the matter, common sense says IN, but history says OUT.


History is history but the future is the future.  :Smile:

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## neilsermk1

> 11 out to 1 in, at present when I voted for out, so looking good to me.


 So Tonka what's the argument for leaving the EU then.

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## tonkatojo

> So Tonka what's the argument for leaving the EU then.


I would say reasons more than arguments, them being based on the erosion of original idea for joining the European economic union back in January 1973, politicians in " their "wisdom changed the goal posts so many times we are left with the mess as is at present. I personally would like to favour the commonwealth trading as we used to do, also the rest of the world to trade with along with the European countries. Now I know the shout would be " imposed tariffs " that would work both ways and considering he amount of importing we do it would not matter, consider the £11.3 billion that go to Brussels just to be in the club saved, we would be better off.

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## Rheghead

> consider the E11.3 billion euros that go to Brussels just to be in the club saved, we would be better off.


Well that isn't correct is it?  The UK receives back money, the difference being E4.7bn euros adrift.  But exports to EU are worth more than twice this deficit per month.  So you could say the membership fee to the club is small potatoes compared to what we get out of being in the club.  Of course we can keep trading with the EU after Brexit but at what cost?  

On another matter, I think nations who are encouraged to trade with eachother are far less likely to go to war with eachother.  Europe has not got a good track record before the EU at being peaceful.

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## bekisman

Far from offering every consumer and business the benefits of a wider  domestic market, after 40 years of membership, less than 5 per cent of  UK companies directly export to the EU yet all are forced to bear the  burden of its regulations. Were the UK to leave, it would continue to have access to the EU’s  markets, as *World Trade Organization rules* prevent the EU from imposing  unfair, punitive tariffs on UK exports. Furthermore, Britain could quite  legally ‘compensate’ exporting firms for costs that they may face.

One of the biggest errors  the pro EU advocates advance is the idea  that the EU prevents war in Europe. As we are now seeing, there is the  opposite danger. The EU’s actions and words in the Ukraine have helped  create a dangerous power vacuum which Mr Putin is exploiting for Russian  advantage. Whilst it is Russia which today threatens the peace and has  acted illegally and rashly, we do need to study carefully the origins of  this flare up. The intervention of the EU in the break up of the former Yugoslavia  also failed to prevent war, and some would say made that conflict more  bitter and damaging. 

There were no wars in Europe from 1945 until 1973

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## tonkatojo

> Well that isn't correct is it?  The UK receives back money, the difference being E4.7bn euros adrift.  But exports to EU are worth more than twice this deficit per month.  So you could say the membership fee to the club is small potatoes compared to what we get out of being in the club.  Of course we can keep trading with the EU after Brexit but at what cost?  
> 
> On another matter, I think nations who are encouraged to trade with eachother are far less likely to go to war with eachother.  Europe has not got a good track record before the EU at being peaceful.


Your a grand one for graphs Rhegy here's one for you. I suppose we should be grateful for the wee bit of our money we get back in the form of grants and rebates. Trading with other nations does not deter war, ask the Ukraine, The French are only our friends when it suits them ask the port of Calais or the UK farmers when bse was lifted by Europe how long did it take the French to acknowledge it (in years will do). Nah Tam2000 is right on the other thread "brexit" get well away and try salvage whats left of our industries without the EU regulations.

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## neilsermk1

This is getting good, reasoned debate with the occasional graph for good measure, what's gone wrong,, no one has got snippy about the Scottish government (yet) or mentioned Hitler (yet). Best thread in a long time

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## tonkatojo

If and when after brexit this is a quote from this link  ​http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/after-br...u#.Vrutq_KLSM8 We run a massive trade deficit with the EU (but a surplus with the rest of the world). On the day we left, we’d become the EU’s single biggest market, accounting for 21 per cent of its exports – more than its second and third largest markets (the US and Japan) combined.

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## bekisman

> This is getting good, reasoned debate with the occasional graph for good measure, what's gone wrong,, no one has got snippy about the Scottish government (yet) or mentioned Hitler (yet). Best thread in a long time


 Yes, tiz rather nice - hope it continues until June!

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## Scout

I do not think it was good when we joined the common market. My father who had small holding in the south said the money difference was bad for the UK so EU has really never been good for UK.

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## bekisman

Good to see orgers voting, pity this poll keeps slipping down the page, wonder if it could could be a 'Sticky' for such an important opinion gauge?

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## rob murray

Italys in real bad Greek like economic shape, and are now subjected to brutal Brussels austerity measures see :  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...-eurozone.html

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## andyw

Poll ending in 7 days

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## bekisman

Midday news (17th Feb) "Four Eastern European Countries reportedly ready to block PM's proposal to limit benefits for migrants living in UK" Surely they are not that thick and uncomprehending to realise that by simply stating that, that  another % of Brits have gone to: "lets get out" result; those Eastern Countries will get nowt? 
I know it's only a small poll on the Org but with 31% to stay in and 68% to get out, not looking good ::

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## rob murray

> Midday news (17th Feb) "Four Eastern European Countries reportedly ready to block PM's proposal to limit benefits for migrants living in UK" Surely they are not that thick and uncomprehending to realise that by simply stating that, that  another % of Brits have gone to: "lets get out" result; those Eastern Countries will get nowt? 
> I know it's only a small poll on the Org but with 31% to stay in and 68% to get out, not looking good


This whole EU debacle is  largely about Cameron plactating his anti EU MP's, he is  just like all tory heads, since Majors time. EU reforms could be consensual and led by UK / Germany. Well its blowing up in his face, as if polls are right, the popular vote will be for out, and thats the end of Cameron : So given scottish EU support ( by polls anyway )  will  the SNP put a clause in their manifesto on  clearly what will trigger indy 2 ie if UK leaves EU then indy 2 rather than being in a non EU country  ?....what a complete mess

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## dozy

I agree this what you say to an extent ,Cameron would never back anything that he'll lose .  The Westminster system will make sure the vote goes his way, already the fix must be in. The same lot that sprinkled the Camreon fairy dust on the scottish referendum have no doubt got a mountain for the EU one. 
Sorry but no one in their right mind would bet on a NO vote that could see Cameron out and Scotland independent .

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## bekisman

> I agree this what you say to an extent ,Cameron would never back anything that he'll lose .  The Westminster system will make sure the vote goes his way, already the fix must be in. The same lot that sprinkled the Camreon fairy dust on the scottish referendum have no doubt got a mountain for the EU one. 
> Sorry but no one in their right mind would bet on a NO vote that could see Cameron out and Scotland independent .


 30% in and 70% out by the above poll - thought it was a 'Reserved Matter' ref referendums? can someone put me right legally on that one? I always though I had dandruff - but appears to have been Fairy Dust - well you learn something new every day ::

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## Tam 2000

Have you never heard the saying,  you can here the wind, but you cannot see it.   cameron the great pretender,  great to see the vast difference in the pole, just a snippet of the real thing   we hope.

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## rob murray

> I agree this what you say to an extent ,Cameron would never back anything that he'll lose .  The Westminster system will make sure the vote goes his way, already the fix must be in. The same lot that sprinkled the Camreon fairy dust on the scottish referendum have no doubt got a mountain for the EU one. 
> Sorry but no one in their right mind would bet on a NO vote that could see Cameron out and Scotland independent .


Cameron is Pro EU but for a reformed EU and is taking a huge gamble, he has to be seen to do something to negotiate better terms for UK in EU ( well over due )  but historically a large section of his party are anti EU, no matter what he secures it doesnt matter, as he wont have their support, as for the country at large, people will see the issue as nationalist and not european, if polls work out as predicted then the vote will well be for out, so Camerons "vision" is rejected by a large swathe of his own party and the public at large, he will be toast as his creditibility will be shot.............. bye bye Cameron hello Gideon or Boris take yer pick

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## dozy

> Cameron is Pro EU but for a reformed EU and is taking a huge gamble, he has to be seen to do something to negotiate better terms for UK in EU ( well over due )  but historically a large section of his party are anti EU, no matter what he secures it doesnt matter, as he wont have their support, as for the country at large, people will see the issue as nationalist and not european, if polls work out as predicted then the vote will well be for out, so Camerons "vision" is rejected by a large swathe of his own party and the public at large, he will be toast as his creditibility will be shot.............. bye bye Cameron hello Gideon or Boris take yer pick


Camerons cronies must be handing out waterproofs to those EU leaders to save them from drowning in the SWEAT streaming off Cameron. Never have I seen a World Leader look so bad, looks more like a man searching for a llifeboat. Heres hoping he gets the same stone filled life belt, he's happily thrown to many of he own people.

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## Bystander1

Aye right enough. That Thatcher fellow really screwed things up at Waterloo.

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## bekisman

> Camerons cronies must be handing out waterproofs to those EU leaders to save them from drowning in the SWEAT streaming off Cameron. Never have I seen a World Leader look so bad, looks more like a man searching for a llifeboat. Heres hoping he gets the same stone filled life belt, he's happily thrown to many of he own people. The mans just another Thatcher in the making ,maybe this will be his Waterloo.


 Waterloo eh? we won that one!.. Obviously you've not been following all this, try watching Euronews, France24, even RT instead of the Sun or maybe Morning Star.. I'm pretty certain that the Country WILL vote to stay in, I was concerned about the Human Rights act and the mention that The British Bill of Rights would replace it, so wrote to the Central Correspondence team The Ministry of Justice in Petty France, and they very nicely wrote back, which certainly put my mind at rest.. Whatever way it goes, David will still be running the show until the next election.. Anyway I'm off to Italy tomorrow, might find out what the Italians think!

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## rob murray

> Camerons cronies must be handing out waterproofs to those EU leaders to save them from drowning in the SWEAT streaming off Cameron. Never have I seen a World Leader look so bad, looks more like a man searching for a llifeboat. Heres hoping he gets the same stone filled life belt, he's happily thrown to many of he own people.


Well what Cameron has publicallly said he wanted from EU will be considerably watered down as talks are proving very difficult, some countries in EU are taking a nationalistic view on the whole matter no matter what Cameron says, hence his sweat, if he does get a deal, he will then call a referendum and present the spin to the public, issue is the majority of the UK public will  not "get" Camerons reforms and see the vote purely on narrow nationalistic terms ( migration, right to entry to UK, welfare benefits period  ) and not the bigger picture, thats why I think an out vote will be achieved. Me, ..stay in dont sacrifice EU to please little englander tory dissidents and hold onto power.

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## tonkatojo

> Well what Cameron has publicallly said he wanted from EU will be considerably watered down as talks are proving very difficult, some countries in EU are taking a nationalistic view on the whole matter no matter what Cameron says, hence his sweat, if he does get a deal, he will then call a referendum and present the spin to the public, issue is the majority of the UK public will  not "get" Camerons reforms and see the vote purely on narrow nationalistic terms ( migration, right to entry to UK, welfare benefits period  ) and not the bigger picture, thats why I think an out vote will be achieved. Me, ..stay in dont sacrifice EU to please little englander tory dissidents and hold onto power.


A wee bit narrow minded of you Rob, why are the "OUT" voters all classed as "englander tory dissidents" or is that a bit of nationalistic rallying on your behalf ?.

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## rob murray

> A wee bit narrow minded of you Rob, why are the "OUT" voters all classed as "englander tory dissidents" or is that a bit of nationalistic rallying on your behalf ?.


Narrow minded oh really well, plenty of like minded people abound ? Ive just heard the news and an ex EU MP is trumpeting on about Camerons high stakes gamble re EU reforms, challenging the reasoning and being upfront on the fact that the entire exercise is aimed at placating the anti EU wing of his own party ( tories ) and Cameron risks UK pulling out as the issues no matter how he spins them, will only be seen from a nationalistic view point and not a wider EU perspective, as I said earlier anti EU attititide in Tory party has been uppermost prevalent since majors premiership. Its a fact that polls record out as being predominatly english, though a % of Scots want out just as a % of Welsh etc but polls suggest Scotland is very pro EU. Im no Scottish nationalist and I use the term little englander towards narrow minded anti EU folk, although I accept that England has a hell of a lot of migrants etc than Scotland and anti migrant feelings run high there. Where does the UKIP vote come from ? DO you think UKIP voters will vote to stay in..no...and theres a lot of them about, they might not have gained any power at a first past the post election but a referedum is entiely different.  Time will out as they say but the snake oil sales man I rather suspect is going to get a bloody nose on EU. AS we speak theres still no deal either !  For the record I am pro UK / anti indy and want UK in EU !

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## Sgitheanach

I voted for independence (not SNP supporter) but I think it better to be out of the EU and part of the UK than be in an independent Scotland and governed by the EU instead of Westminster . The whole EU thing is just cover for Germany to take over Europe through political means instead of war this time

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## tonkatojo

The ex EU mp must be one of the ones you can name, me personally couldn't name my European MP or any other and I doubt 80% (guesstimate) of the UK could either that is how important they are, the EU has had its chance but it is out of control of the ordinary folk that voted for the original recipe now find it has grown to be a menu that is completely unpalatable. Cameron is giving it his best shot but I did not think he was very optimistic from the start but was backed into it to save face and have the referendum he promised in the previous elections but didn't and he blamed the LIB Dem lot but has no one to blame this time so a referendum we will have at last. As for the term you use "little englander" as narrow minded folk, I presume because you don't agree with them, and anti EU folk is just daft do you call the 70 odd % on this Poll being of the same ilk ? there will be a few upset if so. It is not just immigration that people want away for, ask around you might be surprised as to the other reasons than the narrow minded view it is about immigration only.

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## Manxman

If the deal isnt what WE want and we come out do we get to close the tunnel so that the French dont make it a pathway to the UK

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## rob murray

> The ex EU mp must be one of the ones you can name, me personally couldn't name my European MP or any other and I doubt 80% (guesstimate) of the UK could either that is how important they are, the EU has had its chance but it is out of control of the ordinary folk that voted for the original recipe now find it has grown to be a menu that is completely unpalatable. Cameron is giving it his best shot but I did not think he was very optimistic from the start but was backed into it to save face and have the referendum he promised in the previous elections but didn't and he blamed the LIB Dem lot but has no one to blame this time so a referendum we will have at last. As for the term you use "little englander" as narrow minded folk, I presume because you don't agree with them, and anti EU folk is just daft do you call the 70 odd % on this Poll being of the same ilk ? there will be a few upset if so. It is not just immigration that people want away for, ask around you might be surprised as to the other reasons than the narrow minded view it is about immigration only.


Ok I'll drop the litttle englander tag I respect it doesnt apply on this local thread but it is a common media term for narrow minded anti EU people ( uKIP ? ), I didnt make the term it up. Cameron will announce the referendum date today, and cabinet ministers will declare their hands, so we will see pretty soon what will happen come what may

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## Rheghead

If someone wants 'ever closer links to the EU' then there is nothing to vote for in this referendum.

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## Rheghead

23rd of June is the date.

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## dc1

rob I am no little Englander have lived in Scotland all of my 71 years ,and I will be voting to leave , when we had the vote about  becoming a member in the first place I voted no

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## dc1

and by the way I am not a tory voter

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## Rheghead

I voted for the Referendum party in 1997 with a view to get to where we are now, having a referendum and then vote to leave.  Back then was the right time to leave before we got too involved into the EU.  I still feel the same way but I also feel that because we are too involved into the EU that we may damage ourselves more by leaving than by staying.   It is a tricky one, and one which I will decide by the heart rather than by the head.  Probably about 10 seconds before I walk into the booth.  Though if during this campaign one side is obviously being thin with the truth then I will vote for the other side.  I will be watching sites like Fullfact with extra diligence to help me make that decision.

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## bekisman

> I voted for the Referendum party in 1997 with a view to get to where we are now, having a referendum and then vote to leave.  Back then was the right time to leave before we got too involved into the EU.  I still feel the same way but I also feel that because we are too involved into the EU that we may damage ourselves more by leaving than by staying.   It is a tricky one, and one which I will decide by the heart rather than by the head.  Probably about 10 seconds before I walk into the booth.  Though if during this campaign one side is obviously being thin with the truth then I will vote for the other side.  I will be watching sites like Fullfact with extra diligence to help me make that decision.


Blinking heck Reggie, although I'm down in Edinburgh ready for flight to Italy, I am impressed with your honesty! - not often I give you kudos over all these years, but I do now.. I must admit over the last week I have agonised which way to go, one second 100% for staying in, and then 100% for out.. Give him his due, Cameron has flogged his guts out - 99% of the European papers acknowledge this - still don't know what will happen in c5 years when Turkey joins the EU. 75 million more poor(ish) people who can enter Britain? but then Theresa May says she has more power?.. Like you still a LOT of listening to do. This is not a knee-jerk vote, it NEEDS careful consideration...

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## Manxman

I would like to see the list that Cameron went in with and see what he came out with without any political waffle or spin

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## bekisman

So Boris is for out - always thought of him as a bungling prat, but must admit he hit a nerve with me with part of his announcement a short while ago in which he said that above the EU sat the lawmakers who made the laws for the 742,000,000 of the EU. The same laws (presumably for the intended United States of Europe?) but how the hell can you have the same laws for such diverse nations? look of a map of Europe of just 300 years ago, most EU nations did not exist!. Applying exact same laws to us will not work. OK we're so-called 'Europeans' - no we're not, we're an insular race, often leaving these shores to save the arse of the French or Germans, we ARE different, and cannot be combined as 'European' in the terms of being the same as an Italian, An Hungarian, a Luxembourger. The same size fits all does not and never will work. The Brits are slow to anger and put up with a lot, but me thinks the worm has turned..

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## Rheghead

I sympathise with both sides of the debate, on the one hand, the no camp, they want total sovereignty so that we can decide on all our laws etc.  That is great then there is the other side who probably feel that modern life is so more connected now and arguably safer and much more fuller and more rewarding for that interconnection.  Countries are trading more, we are going further afield, we are even playing and meeting people online and making friends.  Shouldn't we be reaching out rather than retreating back to our island?  This decision will be the biggest of our political lives, it even calls into question what sovereignty means, is it something to be traded away for a better horizon or jealously guarded and have the right to decide with it? So we should set the stage that feels right for the next chapter, what we want the future to be.

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## Rheghead

There is also the argument that if you think that types like Gove and Boris Johnson etc are part of an elite political class at Westminster who hunger for more powers to mess around with then it may be a good idea to vote to stay in the EU to prevent them making your life an even worse misery.  :Grin:

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## bekisman

The biggest turn-off for me was seeing that be-hatted George Galloway, what the hell is his agenda?
28% vs. 71% Wot's SNP going to do now?

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## tonkatojo

> The biggest turn-off for me was seeing that be-hatted George Galloway, what the hell is his agenda?
> 28% vs. 71% Wot's SNP going to do now?


The same as usual probably, go against anything Westminster does, but she is a crafty one is Sturgeon she knows she has a backdoor key if she can persuade the Scots to leave the UK and that backdoor key is named the Common Wealth. 
Galloway has spotted another bandwagon me thinks as the wheel fell off of his last one.

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## rob murray

> The same as usual probably, go against anything Westminster does, but she is a crafty one is Sturgeon she knows she has a backdoor key if she can persuade the Scots to leave the UK and that backdoor key is named the Common Wealth. 
> Galloway has spotted another bandwagon me thinks as the wheel fell off of his last one.


The out case and all the intriciies involved has not been really made, ithe comming months will see what oot looks like, SNP can parade to stay in and throw in the  if UK out then that triggers off indy 2 scenariso, but people will have been exposed to the realities of the out scenario,  these a real irony here as the in campaign will lead on fear as they did yesterday, ie we dont wholly know the risks involved, better the devil you know, dont take the chances with the unknown etc etc, forcing the out campaign to be on the back foot, the ins will lead with a project fear approach just as the NATS called the yes vote campaiagn a project fear, so STurgeon wil end up with the ins running and  supporting EU project fear.

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## tonkatojo

> The out case and all the intriciies involved has not been really made, ithe comming months will see what oot looks like, SNP can parade to stay in and throw in the  if UK out then that triggers off indy 2 scenariso, but people will have been exposed to the realities of the out scenario,  these a real irony here as the in campaign will lead on fear as they did yesterday, ie we dont wholly know the risks involved, better the devil you know, dont take the chances with the unknown etc etc, forcing the out campaign to be on the back foot, the ins will lead with a project fear approach just as the NATS called the yes vote campaiagn a project fear, so STurgeon wil end up the ins running and  supporting EU project fear.


I can see where your coming from, it will be like the last general election the fear factor it worked for the Cons against Labour last time using the Nats as the demonic factor throwing in with Labour, now Cameron is using Farage and Galloway as the demonic examples. but I cannot see the electorate being taken in again with such deliberate slight of tongue.
One thing I will say I personally am disapointed in the stance of the Labour party stance of out, but that said a lot of their current policies I would not vote for.

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## rob murray

Sturgeon seems to be equating a scottish stay in EU vote as being a yes for scottish independance ie EU stay in voters will revert to yes for independance in any new scottish indy vote, which is rash to say the least : see what ex leader Gordon Wilson has to say on situation :  http://www.scotsman.com/news/politic...ndum-1-4035288

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## Rheghead

> Sturgeon seems to be equating a scottish stay in EU vote as being a yes for scottish independance ie EU stay in voters will revert to yes for independance in any new scottish indy vote, which is rash to say the least : see what ex leader Gordon Wilson has to say on situation :  http://www.scotsman.com/news/politic...ndum-1-4035288


Well that is your unique interpretation I suppose.

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## Bystander1

My interpretation as well - but then I am of the undermensch class

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## Rheghead

I think what is really worthwhile to note is that Friends of the Earth are campaigning for staying in the EU.  Although they accept that the common agricultural policy has been a disaster for the countryside, they say that the EU has brought us cleaner beaches, less air pollution, safer products and more protection for wildlife.  

If we think that Westminster would strengthen environmental law over and above what the EU already does then I think we would be deluding ourselves.

Here is their report on how they stand on our relationship with the EU

https://www.foe.co.uk/sites/default/...ship-81703.pdf

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## tonkatojo

> I think what is really worthwhile to note is that Friends of the Earth are campaigning for staying in the EU.  Although they accept that the common agricultural policy has been a disaster for the countryside, they say that the EU has brought us cleaner beaches, less air pollution, safer products and more protection for wildlife.  
> 
> If we think that Westminster would strengthen environmental law over and above what the EU already does then I think we would be deluding ourselves.
> 
> Here is their report on how they stand on our relationship with the EU
> 
> https://www.foe.co.uk/sites/default/...ship-81703.pdf


For decades I have been disillusioned with the fisheries policy forced on us to appease other member states I wonder how many million tons or tonnes if you want have been thrown away dead under EU rules, strange your "friends of the earth" don't mention the likes, mind greenpeace have done great with the highlighting of the whale persecution , but I totally agree the CAP was and is there for the benefit of the French and not the UK.

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## rob murray

> Well that is your unique interpretation I suppose.


Nothing unique about it....did you not read what gordon wilson ( and others ) are saying ? I happen to agree with what theyre saying and theres  nothing unique about that. ANyway its all bluff and bluster by STurgeon, she has already came out with the significant event triggering indy2 statment to keep hard line SNP yes voters on board t but lets see whats in their manifiesto re indy, as theyve dodged what if anything they would put in it as regards indy2, remember the language changed fom indy to..lets get on and govern, long term forecasting etc. Of courses if Swinney doesnt get the fiscal framework that he requires, they will drop the long term budgeting on grounds that they rightly cannot budget unless formuala is right and fair. Anyway its nonsense to assume that In EU voters will vote indy thats just taking a very simple view or rather trying to tie the two things, EU / INdy together.  They are 2 seperate issues and most people will see it like that

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## bekisman

IF we left EU, does that mean Scotland gets it's 200 mile fishing limit back, instead of a few miles north of Shetland? This was that prat Heath:
*SECRET papers, released today, have revealed  how the Scottish fishing fleet was betrayed by the government 30 years  ago to enable Britain to sign up to the controversial Common Fisheries  Policy.* 		 		 		 				 		 		 		Prime Minister Edward Heath’s officials estimated that up to half  the fishermen in Scottish waters - then 4,000 men - could lose their  jobs, but the decision was taken to go ahead with plans to sign up  because it was believed that the benefits to English and Welsh fishermen  would outweigh the disadvantages in Scotland.

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## gleeber

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ln4SRnt4VE0

I think we would do well to listen to someone who guided Britain through its last encounter with disaster. Its only 70 years ago. Human beings have short memories.

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## Rheghead

> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ln4SRnt4VE0
> 
> I think we would do well to listen to someone who guided Britain through its last encounter with disaster. Its only 70 years ago. Human beings have short memories.


Your post made me think that a brexit would risk the break up of the EU and from then on there would be a risk of raising political tensions that could lead us to war again.  Peace is a blue chip that I cannot risk losing.

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## bekisman

The EU may break up but as only Austria, Cyprus, Finland, Ireland, Malta and Sweden. are NOT members of NATO in EU, think Article 5 (Collective defense means that an attack against one Ally is considered as an attack against all Allies.) so a kind of MAD in a way?

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## bekisman

Well this Thread is to do with the EU In/Out.. 
According to the just released GERS figures: _"On that measure, the current spending deficit for 2014-15 was  £11.9bn, according to GERS - or 7.8% of GDP, compared with a UK figure  of 3.3%."_ and as Ms Sturgeon says IF the UK votes to leave the EU she will get Independence and apply for EU membership, Hmm _"As a benchmark of a sustainable level of deficit, the  rules for eurozone membership require deficits to be no more than 3% of  GDP."
_Makes you think don't it?

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## Rheghead

I find it funny the furore over the Queen's alleged belief that the UK should leave the EU in order to regain control over its own laws.  If we took that thought one step further, I'm sure the Queen would privately like to regain the control of the UK herself!

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## tonkatojo

> I find it funny the furore over the Queen's alleged belief that the UK should leave the EU in order to regain control over its own laws.  If we took that thought one step further, I'm sure the Queen would privately like to regain the control of the UK herself!


Hmm, I think your presuming too much, on the other hand you must/may be privy to HM thoughts to say with your surety what are her private thoughts, or just prattling on in your thoughts.

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## Rheghead

> Hmm, I think your presuming too much, on the other hand you must/may be privy to HM thoughts to say with your surety what are her private thoughts, or just prattling on in your thoughts.


If you really think that the royals don't yearn for more power then you are seriously deluded.  History has shown that the royals interfere and try to influence on dealings of state.

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## Rheghead

I see that Martin McGuinness has said that he will push for a referendum on Irish reunification in the event of Brexit.

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## Rheghead

In my opinion, the most likely consequence of Brexit would be a swift agreement to join the European Economic Area as agreed with Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein.  Under this trade agreement with the EU, UK would have access to the single market but would also have to accept the freememovement of peoples, goods and services which the xenophobic UKIP is bitterly opposed to.  The UKIP's core values are stymied at every turn.

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## tonkatojo

> In my opinion, the most likely consequence of Brexit would be a swift agreement to join the European Economic Area as agreed with Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein.  Under this trade agreement with the EU, UK would have access to the single market but would also have to accept the freememovement of peoples, goods and services which the xenophobic UKIP is bitterly opposed to.  The UKIP's core values are stymied at every turn.


What you and the stay vote do not comprehend is the EU need our market just as much as we need theirs and preconditions would have to suit both parties/sides it would not be as you suggest their way or no way. Two days ago British commonwealth day passed and without much hurrah perhaps when we start using their markets more with out the constraints of the EU we will appreciate it more.

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## theone

> In my opinion, the most likely consequence of Brexit would be a swift agreement to join the European Economic Area as agreed with Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein.  Under this trade agreement with the EU, UK would have access to the single market but would also have to accept the freememovement of peoples, goods and services which the xenophobic UKIP is bitterly opposed to.  The UKIP's core values are stymied at every turn.


I think you're right on the trade agreement but wrong with the free movement. The UK is Germany's 3rd largest export market. Failure to agree a trade deal means import taxes that suddenly make VW's, Audi's and BMW's a lot less affordable than Toyota's and Nissan's.

The UK gives Germany €51 BILLION per year more trade than comes the other way.

Failure to agree a trade deal on terms that are acceptable the UK (i.e. still having closed borders) will hurt Germany more than it will hurt us. It's a similar story with France. 

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigu...ublicationFile

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## bekisman

Well given it a lot of thought; Head v Heart and I'm an 'Outer'. A lot of burble going on about following the Norwegian model or the Swiss model.. Considering that the GDP of Switzerland is $685 billion and that Norway's GDP is $512billion it's comforting to see that good ole UK trumps them all with a massive $2.67TRILLION. In reality we don't need the EU in it's present state, would have been nice to stay in IF it had been 'reformed' and had reverted simply to a collection of trading nations, but it's not.. 
I heard someone twittering on about not having those from eastern EU coming to cut the cauliflowers, as 'free-movement of peoples' eh? easy, they just have to apply for a visa/permission and they come in - like they did way before the EU - we control our borders who comes, and who does not.. all this nonsense about Canada taking 7 years to negotiate trade with the EU, let's not forget that's from a standing start - we've been with the EU trading for decades. 
There is, under EU law a period of TWO YEARS to possibly renegotiate.. and as *theone* above says Germany ain't going to say they are not going to play anymore.. the PANIC is that even the Czechs say they will follow us out - the breakup of the EU on the cards I thought it was a strong organisation - what with grey-man Obama coming over to tell us to stay in will be met with typical British phelm  - just like those Colonials did in Boston with our tea - don't like being controlled..

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## Rheghead

> I think you're right on the trade agreement but wrong with the free movement. The UK is Germany's 3rd largest export market. Failure to agree a trade deal means import taxes that suddenly make VW's, Audi's and BMW's a lot less affordable than Toyota's and Nissan's.
> 
> The UK gives Germany €51 BILLION per year more trade than comes the other way.
> 
> Failure to agree a trade deal on terms that are acceptable the UK (i.e. still having closed borders) will hurt Germany more than it will hurt us. It's a similar story with France. 
> 
> https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigu...ublicationFile


As I understand things from my own research, membership of the European Economic Area comes with the condition of accepting the free movement of peoples, goods and services and the Single Market.  The UK can't pick and choose what it likes if/when it enters the EEA.  The crazy thing is that the UK would have to abide with all the EU regulation but it wouldn't have a further say on the nature of the regulations.  So the upshot of an exit from the EU would be an increase in the democratic deficit compared to what already exists.  The popular notion that we constantly get from BOJO et al is that we would be more in charge of our laws when the complete opposite could be true.  You couldn't make it up.

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## tonkatojo

> As I understand things from my own research, membership of the European Economic Area comes with the condition of accepting the free movement of peoples, goods and services and the Single Market.  The UK can't pick and choose what it likes if/when it enters the EEA.  The crazy thing is that the UK would have to abide with all the EU regulation but it wouldn't have a further say on the nature of the regulations.  So the upshot of an exit from the EU would be an increase in the democratic deficit compared to what already exists.  The popular notion that we constantly get from BOJO et al is that we would be more in charge of our laws when the complete opposite could be true.  You couldn't make it up.


I presume by what you say every country that trades with a member of the EU must have these preconditions, does that include China USA et al ?.  Regarding British Laws I am led to think the European court would no longer have jurisdiction over UK law making and the ones we no longer want would simply be repealed.

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## Rheghead

> I presume by what you say every country that trades with a member of the EU must have these preconditions, does that include China USA et al ?.  Regarding British Laws I am led to think the European court would no longer have jurisdiction over UK law making and the ones we no longer want would simply be repealed.


No, you have not read my posts properly and have failed to understand.  Please research the European Economic Area and its conditions.

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## theone

> As I understand things from my own research, membership of the European Economic Area comes with the condition of accepting the free movement of peoples, goods and services and the Single Market.  The UK can't pick and choose what it likes if/when it enters the EEA.  The crazy thing is that the UK would have to abide with all the EU regulation but it wouldn't have a further say on the nature of the regulations.  So the upshot of an exit from the EU would be an increase in the democratic deficit compared to what already exists.  The popular notion that we constantly get from BOJO et al is that we would be more in charge of our laws when the complete opposite could be true.  You couldn't make it up.


I'm not suggest membership of the EEA.

I'm suggesting a trade only deal with the EU as a whole, or member countries individually.

Of course it can be done.

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## tonkatojo

> No, you have not read my posts properly and have failed to understand.  Please research the European Economic Area and its conditions.


But that is just the point we would not be a member of the EU so why have these preconditions, that was why I asked does China USA or others have these preconditions.

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## Rheghead

> But that is just the point we would not be a member of the EU so why have these preconditions, that was why I asked does China USA or others have these preconditions.


If you want to trade with the EU then you have to abide with the regulation or you won't get to trade.  I'm talking CE marking and straight bananas here.  If UK is outside the European Economic Area then we would be subject to import/export tarriffs which would make our goods uncompetitive as business would have to pass on the cost to consumers.

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## Rheghead

> I'm not suggest membership of the EEA.
> 
> I'm suggesting a trade only deal with the EU as a whole, or member countries individually.
> 
> Of course it can be done.


I know you are not suggesting it but in reality if Brexit happens, the UK government will clamber to enter the EEA as it offers the closest resemblance of our existing trading arrangement.

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## tonkatojo

> If you want to trade with the EU then you have to abide with the regulation or you won't get to trade.  I'm talking CE marking and straight bananas here.  If UK is outside the European Economic Area then we would be subject to import/export tarriffs which would make our goods uncompetitive as business would have to pass on the cost to consumers.


As it has been previously pointed out trade is in their interest more as we buy more than sell to them therefore tariffs would/could be completely different or cancelled depending on what is agreed, can you imagine the uproar from EU company's that sell vast amounts to us if huge tariffs were imposed on their goods, it would not make sense to do it therefore more would want away from the EU and possibly we could even go back to the original blueprint of an economic trading block not all the extra rules and regys dictating.

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## tonkatojo

> I know you are not suggesting it but in reality if Brexit happens, the UK government will clamber to enter the EEA as it offers the closest resemblance of our existing trading arrangement.


I cannot see the UK government doing it against the wishes of the electorate if they vote OUT, it would be political suicide look at the Lib Dems situation.

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## Rheghead

> I cannot see the UK government doing it against the wishes of the electorate if they vote OUT, it would be political suicide look at the Lib Dems situation.


But they would be honouring the wishes of the British people.  It is just that they would be just doing what is right, the next best thing, to protect British jobs to mitigate the situation.

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## Rheghead

> As it has been previously pointed out trade is in their interest more as we buy more than sell to them therefore tariffs would/could be completely different or cancelled depending on what is agreed, can you imagine the uproar from EU company's that sell vast amounts to us if huge tariffs were imposed on their goods, it would not make sense to do it therefore more would want away from the EU and possibly we could even go back to the original blueprint of an economic trading block not all the extra rules and regys dictating.


You have just given me all the more reason why the UK government would quickly enter a European Economic Area agreement in the event of a Brexit.  We would disenfranchise ourselves from the decision-making process in the EU.  We would truly be subject to the whims of the EU without a say.

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## tonkatojo

> But they would be honouring the wishes of the British people.  It is just that they would be just doing what is right, the next best thing, to protect British jobs to mitigate the situation.


That is not what the out want though and would not be voting to do, can you not imagine the furore in parliament from the out MP's also as you have previously said what would be the point of making the situation worse than at present. The fear factor does not add up neither.

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## Rheghead

> That is not what the out want though and would not be voting to do, can you not imagine the furore in parliament from the out MP's also as you have previously said what would be the point of making the situation worse than at present. The fear factor does not add up neither.


Exactly my thoughts even though I think I am on the opposite side of the debate to you.

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## Rheghead

One other crazy scenario on a Brexit and joining the European Economic area is the effect on UK's employment law.  Currently the UK has an opt-out on the 48 hour working time directive, it has done this by getting enough allies with other EU member states to gain the opt-out.  In the event of a Brexit and joining the single market through the EEA, the UK would have to implement the 48 hour working time directive in full because the opt-out alliance would crumble and the directive is a condition to access the Single Market.

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## Rheghead

Another consequence of Brexit would be the reduced influence on World Diplomacy.  Take for instance our stance against rogue states like Zimbabwe.  Mugabe and his henchmen are stung for more by the lack of travel arrangements, weapons embargos and banking rights in 28 states rather than one.   We were instrumental to get that set up because we were a part of the EU.  If we left, I am concerned that the stance against Mugabe and other rogue states would crumble because we aren't there to maintain it.

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## tonkatojo

> Another consequence of Brexit would be the reduced influence on World Diplomacy.  Take for instance our stance against rogue states like Zimbabwe.  Mugabe and his henchmen are stung for more by the lack of travel arrangements, weapons embargos and banking rights in 28 states rather than one.   We were instrumental to get that set up because we were a part of the EU.  If we left, I am concerned that the stance against Mugabe and other rogue states would crumble because we aren't there to maintain it.


An excellent example, just what use has it been? the despot still pleases himself.

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## Rheghead

> An excellent example, just what use has it been? the despot still pleases himself.


It could be argued that the economic pressures have forced him into power sharing agreements with political rivals and has stopped his tyranny from murdering more of his citizens and  spilling violence over into neighbouring countries.  He's cornered.

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## Rheghead

There seems to be a common misconception that the EU is less democratically structured and more autocratic than our own political set up.  But the more I read into it then I find that the reverse is true.  One common fault is that we tend to confuse a _loss of sovereignty_ with a _democratic deficit_ which something entirely different.  Would you agree or disagree and why?

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## tonkatojo

> There seems to be a common misconception that the EU is less democratically structured and more autocratic than our own political set up.  But the more I read into it then I find that the reverse is true.  One common fault is that we tend to confuse a _loss of sovereignty_ with a _democratic deficit_ which something entirely different.  Would you agree or disagree and why?


Not sure about "democratic deficit" but the odds of 27/1 are not very good if you want to win. Or another look 751/74 in the EU parliament, it is a bit like the chances of Scottish MP's ruling Westminster.

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## Rheghead

> Not sure about "democratic deficit" but the odds of 27/1 are not very good if you want to win. Or another look 751/74 in the EU parliament, it is a bit like the chances of Scottish MP's ruling Westminster.


It is not so much winning as you put it, it is about gaining support throughout the member states for mutual benefit.  The way it is structured is for agreement through compromise, not discord.  Though the appointment of Eurosceptic MEPs will cause disagreement for its own sake.

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## tonkatojo

> It is not so much winning as you put it, it is about gaining support throughout the member states for mutual benefit.  The way it is structured is for agreement through compromise, not discord.  Though the appointment of Eurosceptic MEPs will cause disagreement for its own sake.


Not a chance of harmony/consonance as all are looking after their own countries interest, some will collectively group if it is in their interests and if they have the odds in favor all well and good for them and sod the others. Not a good out come for the sods though. A bit like the Nats sticking their oar in on English matters that have no bearing on Scotland as it has been devolved already, Just spite mischief and the same thing goes on in the EU cronies/countries sticking together even if it does not matter to them, but it goes into the black book of favors owed.

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## Rheghead

> *Not a chance of harmony/consonance as all are looking after their own countries interest*, some will collectively group if it is in their interests and if they have the odds in favor all well and good for them and sod the others. Not a good out come for the sods though. A bit like the Nats sticking their oar in on English matters that have no bearing on Scotland as it has been devolved already, Just spite mischief and the same thing goes on in the EU cronies/countries sticking together even if it does not matter to them, but it goes into the black book of favors owed.


Mutual interest is also _self-interest_.

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## tonkatojo

> Mutual interest is also _self-interest_.


Here is Farage at his best, watch the faces of the French and German contingent, I admire the restraint lol.   https://www.youtube.com/embed/R5lXYw...l=0&autoplay=1

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## sprint95m

If I may butt in please, I have a question of a different nature....

Over the UK has been successful in attracting companies wishing to set up manufacturing in the EU.
With the rise of the Asian economies, I expect to see more of this type of investment in the EU.
The UK has a distinct advantage over other EU nations because we are English speaking, this being the international language of trade.


If we leave the EU will be able to attract any of this new manufacturing?



Thanks.

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## tonkatojo

> If I may butt in please, I have a question of a different nature....
> 
> Over the UK has been successful in attracting companies wishing to set up manufacturing in the EU.
> With the rise of the Asian economies, I expect to see more of this type of investment in the EU.
> The UK has a distinct advantage over other EU nations because we are English speaking, this being the international language of trade.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Butt in as you want but propose at least one legible question for us to grasp at. Your observation of attracting manufacturing companies will continue in or out, how far UK wide these companies are is for debate.

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## Rheghead

> If I may butt in please, I have a question of a different nature....
> 
> Over the UK has been successful in attracting companies wishing to set up manufacturing in the EU.
> With the rise of the Asian economies, I expect to see more of this type of investment in the EU.
> The UK has a distinct advantage over other EU nations because we are English speaking, this being the international language of trade.
> 
> 
> If we leave the EU will be able to attract any of this new manufacturing?
> 
> ...


You are quite right.  American and Asian markets see the UK as a gateway into investing into the Single Market.  Nissan is a classic example of this as the UK levies 18% corperation tax compared to 30% in France and Germany.  A Brexit would be disasterous for foreign investment.

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## tonkatojo

It looks like one of those good Asian investors is dumping on what's left of the steel industry, at present the governments cannot do much to help unfortunately the EU rules yet again forbid it, so yet another reason to be free of their fetters I think.

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## Rheghead

> It looks like one of those good Asian investors is dumping on what's left of the steel industry, at present the governments cannot do much to help unfortunately the EU rules yet again forbid it, so yet another reason to be free of their fetters I think.


The EU tried to slap on a 66% import tarriff on Chinese steel that is currently flooding the market.  The UK was the ringleader at the European Commission to stop that from happening because it was prepared to see British steel go to the wall in order to appease the Chinese.  

I'll take some convincing that a Brexit would do anything for British steel or British trade as a whole.

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## Rheghead

I might think about leaving the EU if it was agreed that all the returned powers were to be immediately devolved to the Scottish parliament.

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## tonkatojo

> I might think about leaving the EU if it was agreed that all the returned powers were to be immediately devolved to the Scottish parliament.


According to your leader that is what she intends doing anyway, so vote to BREXIT and get your wish, solved.

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## Rheghead

> According to your leader that is what she intends doing anyway, so vote to BREXIT and get your wish, solved.


Not my leader.  I am a member of a political party and it ain't her.  You presume too much.

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## Rheghead

Nigel Farage's vision for UK trade with the EU has to be one of the biggest Schrodingers Cats of the EU debate.
On the one hand he says there is an intolerable democratic deficit with EU law and that we face too much regulation on products from Brussels. That sounds great on face value.
But the truth is, upon a Brexit any trade with the EU which is 60% of UK exports, has to conform to EU regulation. So the UK would have to conform with the EU and we will have 100% democratic deficit in the nature of that regulation.
It would be a double whammy against the UK

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