# General > General >  Coronavirus

## orkneycadian

The Chinese don't hang about when they set their minds to it;

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ital-WEEK.html

*Hundreds of heavy-duty vehicles and armies of workers are gathered overnight as China vows to build a 1,000-bed coronavirus hospital from scratch in ONE WEEK*How long have they been at the Sick Kids Hospital in Edinburgh, and when does it open?

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## mi16

Another SNP clusterf...

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## Alrock

On the bright side, with any luck this is natures way of fixing the global overpopulation crisis.

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## orkneycadian

Without a crystal ball, I doubt that anyone can make any kind of predictions.  But lets, just for a minute, imagine the suggestion in the following link were to play out;

https://metro.co.uk/2020/01/24/coron...emic-12116616/

*This is how the coronavirus could spread across the world and become a pandemic*



and specifically the text;

_Last year, one study about a fictional coronavirus pandemic claimed 65 million people could die within 18 months._

Horrendous as it may sound, losing 65 million people in 18 months is still not enough to stem worldwide population growth.  Without any pandemics, the population will rise by about 121 million in 18 months.  Subtract the 65 million and there will still be a population rise of 56 million.  OK, might not be as simple as that if the pandemic claims people of reproductive age, but its in that ball park.

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## orkneycadian

And for some perspective to date, if the outbreak is considered to have started on the 31st of December, when it was notified to the WHO, then in that time, 41 people have died from it, whilst the worlds population has increased by about 5.625 million

So as yet, its not going to be the end of us.

As an aside, the latter number above is greater than the population of Scotland.  So for anyone trying to imagine the scale of the "population emergency", another Scotland has been added to the world since New Years Day.

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## orkneycadian

Just happened upon a debate on Radio Scotland where they are discussing a programme on population, that must have been on in the last few days;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000dl6q

*Chris Packham: 7.7 Billion People and Counting*Not seen it, but sounds like interesting viewing if I can figure out how to get it played back again.....

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## Gronnuck

Mibbies its time to get Greta Thunberg to switch her attention to the global population crisis.....

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## Alrock

> *Chris Packham: 7.7 Billion People and Counting*.....


Interesting programme, explained the situation quite well but shied away from any real solutions.

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## orkneycadian

> Mibbies its time to get Greta Thunberg to switch her attention to the global population crisis.....


She might as well.  All she seems able to do is rant at anyone older than her about how bad they have been, whilst tweeting away to all and sundry on her tech gadgets, contributing to the rise in energy demand of the internet.

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## orkneycadian

> Interesting programme, explained the situation quite well but shied away from any real solutions.


Just like everyone else then?  "Oh yes, we must (we = the Government) must do something about the increase in CO2 emissions caused by mankind, but oh no, we could't even dream of limiting the explosion in numbers of mankind - Lets have a School Strike - That will make all the difference"

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## orkneycadian

Interesting graphic;



Suggests that the number of cases approximately doubles every 2 days.  Oh well, the entire global population will have it within 3 weeks.  But with only a 2% mortality rate, its not going to do anything lasting to the population emergency.

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## Gronnuck

> So for anyone trying to imagine the scale of the "population emergency", another Scotland has been added to the world since New Years Day.


Mibbies its time for the grubbiement to give notice that they will stop Child Benefit for all new-born children from one year hence.  People might then reevaluate the planning of their families.  Unfortunately this will do very little to change familial practices in many other areas of the world.

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## Goodfellers

What I find interesting is the way the virus has spread throughout the world. Useful information for the WHO for when a serious virus occurs. 

Anyone remember Survivors tv series in the 70's about such a spread. I always thought I had the skills to survive if I was one of the lucky ones.

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## orkneycadian

BBC reporting that the number of cases today standing at about 12,000.  So the approximation of the number of cases roughly doubling every 2 days still stands.  Friday the 21st of February and the whole planet will have caught it!  But then again, there was a Chinese nurse on some news sites about a week ago saying there was 90,000 cases.  Who to believe.....

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## Bill Fernie

I googled - "will the virus change" and got this  - https://www.sciencenewsforstudents.o...virus-outbreak

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## orkneycadian

Though the BBC are reporting officially 14000 cases today on https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51345855 the same webpage suggests that the University of Hong Kong are estimating 75,000 in Wuhan alone.  If so, then the doubling every 2 days is a day or 2 behind....

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## 988

So, here's the thing. All of the deaths have been amongst heavy smokers developing complications such as Pneumonia etc, China is a country of very very heavy smoking. Good job Caithness folk do not partake in this disgusting habit ?

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## orkneycadian

So the one week China hospital is open for business and admitting patients. Now why can't Scotland do that? That's not a political question. I don't believe any political party, if in charge, could do that. We can learn a lot from the Chinese, when it comes to productivity.

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## orkneycadian

So one thing that it's puzzling me about the reporting of this coronavirus.

The mortality rate is being reported as being about 2%, that being the number if deaths divided by the number of reported cases. With the latest figures, that's about 700/34000

Given that the time between symptoms and death is on average 14 days (source = worldometers) although there were 41 days between the first reported case and the first reported death, should the true death rate not be total number of deaths to date divided by total number of cases 14 (or 41) days ago?

So 700 divided by, lets see, 2000. So a more realistic death rate of 35%?

According to worldometers, only 2,034 folk have actually recovered from it.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Hang on, someone at the door asking me to open up. Saying they are delivering a Chinese takeaway?  I never ordered a Chinese takeaway.........

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## orkneycadian

Seems that folk are cottoning on that deaths to date divided by cases to date is not an accurate measure.  Worrldometers now report the death rate as being deaths to date divided by (deaths plus recoverees). Presently gives a mortality rate of 19%

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## orkneycadian

So had anyone in Caithness got it yet or thinks that they have got it? 

I thought I might have got it last week, after eating curried bat at the Chinese. Had a terrible cough after it, and felt gey wabbit.  As it turned, out, it was vindaloo strength, which went for my throat, and I misread the menu. It was cat, not bat!  Doh!

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## Corky Smeek

The following is a quote from Paul Kavanagh's latest blog post.

_"....new cases are appearing elsewhere in the UK and all across Europe. Yet today the British Government announced that its quitting the EUs pandemic warning system. According to reports, the Department of Health in England wanted to remain a part of the EUs Early Warning and Response System, but it was vetoed by Number 10. The EWRS is an online platform which allows health authorities across the EU to share information about serious cross-border health threats, but Number 10 has ruled that the UK wont be a part of it because its fixated on a clean break from the EU._

Isn't it nice to know that Boris and Dominic are at the helm; looking after us at a time of crisis and not letting political dogma get in the way of saving lives? As Kavanagh goes on to say, it is highly likely that the Health Ministers in the devolved parliaments were advised of this decision rather than being consulted on it.  They are playing with lives.

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## orkneycadian

Looks like it won't be so long before the Chinese containment effort looks magnificent, whilst the rest of the world's efforts look farcical. China builds 2500 beds worth of hospitals in a week, Scotland comes up with "drive in testing". China have it under control, whilst it runs rampant elsewhere. 

The growth rate of cases outside China is deeply concerning. For those that say "it's just 40 odd cases out of 65 million" they should look at the charts of cases outside of China. Even on a logarithmic scale, that line is curling upwards.

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## Corky Smeek

I knew the SNP were to blame for Coronavirus. It's high time Nicola resigned and Scotland just capitulated and let others decide how best we should be looked after.

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## Neil Howie

> they should look at the charts of cases outside of China. Even on a logarithmic scale, that line is curling upwards.


Exactly - Graph of coronavirus outside of China

Keeping a close eye on things as extremely neurotic about health at the best of times,

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## Alrock

Unfortunately the *counter* is still going up...

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## orkneycadian

I'm afraid coronavirus will not solve the population emergency. Even if some of the predictions played out,  and 80 million people died of it, (who weren't ready to die of something else anyway) then that would simply cancel out 1 year of population growth.

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## orkneycadian

> Keeping a close eye on things as extremely neurotic about health at the best of times,


No neuroticism here.  But I recognise and understand an exponential curve when I see one.  I understand a logarithmic scale on a graph too.  It's not about the absolute numbers at this second in time. It's all about the rate of change.

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## Corky Smeek

The view from Sweden

https://twitter.com/TheRosie/status/1234812467898916864

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## orkneycadian

Orkney Islands Council still seem to be intent on having 150 deliveries of coronavirus made to Orkney this year aboard cruise liners.  Whilst the rest of the worlds ports are turning them away.

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## orkneycadian

The goverments (I use the plurality) are having a bit of a laugh - They say we are still in the "contain" phase, before moving to the "delay" phase.  What of course they mean is that they have completely failed to contain it, so are now having to think of plan B, despite having the perfect opportunity to contain it a month or 2 ago.  But no, letting folk go on skiing trip was far more important that protecting our weak and vulnerable citizens.  

China has been a shining example of containment, and thats reflected in the first peak and decline of cases - OK, a few folk had to get manhandled out of their flats and into boxes on the backs of pickups to be carted away for isolation - But it worked.  Now all the liberal countries are finding that letting folk get on with life as normal results in a spread like wildfire.  At the end of all this, China will be well down the table of cases and deaths, and the liberal states will be the ones who lose the most amount of citizens.

So, delay phase next - Yup, that wont work well - What comes next?  The mass cremation and burial stage?

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## Fulmar

Oh, you are such a barrel of laughs Orkneycadian. The number of cases here always was going to rise but so far, so good and the system for self isolation is in place and seems sensible to me.
If you want to go and live in a totalitarian state, you go right ahead. (The Uyghur people no doubt will soon be able tell you exactly how it is and how the system works).
No sign of panic buying yet in Wick anyway.

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## orkneycadian

The exponential rise in cases would seem to suggest otherwise.....

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## orkneycadian

What will be interesting, is to see how the rest of the world copes with the 2nd rise;


The first rise and fall above is obviously China, complete with the anomaly due to the way cases were reported.  The second rise is largely the rest of the world aside from China, with several countries, notably Iran, South Korea and possibly Italy, each managing to conjure up more new daily cases than China.  If all this "containment" is working, then that second rise should peak and fall, just like it did when the majority of cases were in China.

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## mi16

Coronavirus isolation hotel collapses in China trapping many.
It never Rains but pours eh.
If it wasnt for bad luck they would have none at all

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## Neil Howie

> What will be interesting, is to see how the rest of the world copes with the 2nd rise;




Consider - America -  

CDC issued faulty testing kits and prevented other labs from using their own tests
*CDC staffers only found out about a suspected case of the coronavirus at the agency when Trump told reporters (result was negative so trip to CDC was back on!)*The American numbers for covid-19 are badly wrong

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## Neil Howie

But for some of those that recover from covid-19 it could lead to lasting damage :

The effects of Covid-19 on the human body ‘is like a combination of SARS and AIDS as it damages both the lungs and immune systems’, Peng Zhiyong told the Global Times.




> "The autopsy results Liu shared inspired me a lot. Based on the results, I think the most important thing now is to take measures at an early stage of the disease to protect patients' lungs from irreversible fibrosis," Peng noted. 
> 
> If irreversible damage is done, other measures, like those to prevent patients from oxygen deficit, will not be of much use, he said. 
> 
> Liu's team published a paper on an autopsy they conducted in the Journal of Forensic Medicine on Tuesday. 
> 
> The paper said there was apparent damage to the patient's lungs. An excess production of mucus spilled out of the alveoli, indicating COVID-19 causes an inflammation response that damages deep airways and pulmonary alveoli. 
> 
> The patient, an 85-year-old man, exhibited similar pathological changes to those caused by SARS and MERS. Fibrosis in his lungs was not as serious as was seen in SARS patients, but an exudative reaction was more apparent, possibly due to the short course of his disease.

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## ecb

There are two Corona virus related petitions on the UK Government and Parliament petitions web site:

"Close Schools/Colleges down for an appropriate amount of time amidst COVID19":

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/300403


"Include self-employed in statutory sick pay during Coronavirus":

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/300336

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## orkneycadian

The schools petition no doubt signed by 99% schoolkids hoping for a holiday, whilst those that are are self employed really need to get a grip and understand what self employment means.  As their own employer, they will have course made provision for such events.  Either that, or they have spent the last while bragging about how cushy it is being your own boss, working when you like, etc.  Just like all the gig economy snowflakes did when they though that they had landed their dream job and could work when they fancied, then discovered there were in fact downsides....

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## orkneycadian

Are there any handy mnemonics, songs to sing, like the 20 second handwashing one, that I can use to remind myself what folk keep saying.  "Its less infections than a cold, it'll nevere come to anything, put it in perspective......"


Because try as I might, I cannot find any evidence of seasonal flu increasing its number of cases like the above.  So in perspective, the growth factor of the rate of increase of coronavirus cases is squillions of times higher than the rate of seasonal flu cases.  Ah, that's what they mean by putting it in perspective?

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## Better Out Than In

Only the wise die

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## orkneycadian

Try telling that to "Mad Mike" Hughes, the chap who last month pancaked himself on the curved earth, trying to prove it was flat.

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## The Horseman

Seems Mercenary that Newspapers charge to get details on COVID19.

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## aqua

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ produces graphs for all countries excluding China, but I cant find the equivalent for China alone. If the China figures are accurate, they seem to have curtailed the spread and we should learn from their success. Next weeks numbers from China will be crucial.

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## orkneycadian

Though there are no specific graphs for it, the tables lower down show the Chinese already have it well under control;


Meanwhile, everyone else is making a right haggis of containment, and may as well give up now.  The Italians are at least a month late in their action.  Had they locked down all incoming travel from Asia, then 233 of their citizens may now not have died.  Instead, Italy has, so far, lost the equivenlent of a major air disaster.

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## aqua

Agreed on all counts.

I’ve been watching those tables all along, but it would be good to have graphs like the one you posted earlier but for China alone. ‘A graph is worth a thousand figures’.

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## orkneycadian

Your wish, Aqua, is my command (within reason.....)

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## orkneycadian

A lot of folk say in relation to coronavirus "Oh, look at in perspective and compare it to how many folk die of seasonal flu"

OK, we can do that.  Italy has had a very bad day - 133 folk died of Coronavirus since yesterday, bringing their total to 366.  Whats the "ordinary" flu season been like in Italy so far this winter?

https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu...down-in-a-week

*Flu outbreak in Italy: Half a million people struck down in a week*


OK, so that report was posted on the 23rd of January, so a bit ago.  But whats it saying?  Since October 2019 to January 2020, 240 flu deaths have been reported, vs the expected 258 by that stage in the season.  It also says that January is the expected peak.  So lets just double the 240 to 480 for easy counting.  480 Italians expected to die in the 6 month long flu season.  And 133 have died of coronavirus since yesterday.

OK, that puts it in perspective for me.  To all the folk that suggest coronavirus is compared to seasonal flu deaths, thanks for the hint!

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## aqua

> Your wish, Aqua, is my command (within reason.....)


Wow, I didnt expect that! Thank you!

How did you get the data?

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## orkneycadian

Simples - Just subtracted the "Rest of the world" numbers from the "Total numbers", then plotted all 3 - All from the Worldometers site

For a bit of extra fun, I have redistributed the big spike they had when the changed the recording method.  In the below version, there's still the same number of cases, I have just redistributed them a little bit in the days leading up to the spike to make a "best guess" of what it could look like.

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## Corky Smeek

Interesting video - "Why new diseases keep appearing in China".

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## orkneycadian

An update for you Aqua.


Not much new there.  What I do note of interest today on the Worldometers site is that when ranked in order of "cases per 1 million population", China has dropped down to 5th today, from 4th yesterday.  Pro rata, they are already far from being the worst inflicted country

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## mi16

It has invaded Shetland now, getting  a little close to home for my liking.

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## aqua

> An update for you Aqua.
> 
> 
> Not much new there.  What I do note of interest today on the Worldometers site is that when ranked in order of "cases per 1 million population", China has dropped down to 5th today, from 4th yesterday.  Pro rata, they are already far from being the worst inflicted country


Thanks for the update!

I hadnt realised you could get the numbers for individual days by mouseover on the Worldometers bar charts. I thought you would have to follow the reference link they provide elsewhere on the site for each data point. 

Your guess of the numbers leading up to the spike is probably as good as anyone elses.

So far so good for Chinas efforts to can the virus. Italys response has been truly pathetic, I fear the rest of Europe wont do any better.

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## orkneycadian

It very much looks like the first rise and fall is almost exclusively China, whilst the second rise is almost exclusively everyone other than China. I fear that in months to come, China's response will have put them at the top of the list for reaction, and bottom of the list for cases / deaths. The farcical part of all this is that China showed the way, and the rest of the world had the chance to watch and learn. But didn't.

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## Fulmar

Do you include the major cover up that took place in the beginning and silencing people who tried to speak out- and that is still happening right now? The Chinese people are by no means universally happy with their government's response. I would have more respect if they banned the disgusting, utterly horrendous so called wet live 'meat' markets where the problem originated. Bat to pangolin (pangolin being on the brink of extinction) to humans. Could you watch that video that Corky posted the link to yesterday, I could not get to the end of it. As we all know, it is not only meat it is the illegal trade in endangered animals for traditional medicine that also put humans at risk not to mention the immorality of it all. So excuse me if I don't join in with your adulation.

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## orkneycadian

Fortunately, I don't see any of Corky Smeeks posted drivel, thanks to the ignore list. 

Regards China, I can only go on the figures in the public domain. I think there will be errors in all countries submissions. How many folk in the UK have had it, but had no symptoms of note, or put it down to a cold? 

Yes, I agree that China probably tried to cover it up at the beginning, but I think they soon learned and I would have a lot more faith in their current figures. 

China's eating habits are part of their culture.  We are encouraged to embrace cultural diversity, and accommodate it, even if that is significantly different from our own. So whilst I would probably pass on the lightly kebabed bat, I appreciate that that's what their culture is.

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## Fulmar

From BBC Scotland website:
Globally, authorities have confirmed more than 109,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 3,800 deaths.
The vast majority of cases - more than 80,900 - are in China, where the virus originated in December.

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## Neil Howie

> The farcical part of all this is that China showed the way, and the rest of the world had the chance to watch and learn. But didn't.


Well if Italy has now copied China in order to contain the virus, _maybe we should do that too_? _And do it now?_

*'This is Britain in a fortnight': Scientist reveals UK is on same trajectory as Italy and is two weeks away from a similar coronavirus lockdown*How many days behind

Sorry dailymail but was the first site I found with graphs!

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## Neil Howie

Meanwhile in the UK:

'No one has told me to self-isolate...I just want to get back to work': 

Uber driver is among hundreds returning to Britain from locked-down Italy who say there are NO coronavirus checks or advice at UK airports (same site)

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## Goodfellers

I've just got back from a trip to the dark continent. Transiting in Doha. So that was four packed flights full of people from every corner of the globe.

Not a single check on anyone. Sat next to an Italian who was clearly not well for a seven hour flight. No checks or questions at Edinburgh on arrival. Plenty of Chinese seen milling around in Doha airport. 

Nobody seems worried (apart from me).

I will be keeping away from the general population for the recommended 12 days, just to make sure. Probably over cautious, but I don't want to be the cause of the first Highland infection.

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## Fulmar

I don't think that is being over cautious as it is precisely what is being recommended, it seems to me. It must be a worry for you and I hope you stay well- the problem is, none of us know, do we and a rapidly evolving situation. Look after yourself.

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## Corky Smeek

Goodfellers, you are doing the right thing. Thank you. I sincerely hope you stay well. Take care.

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## Goodfellers

Thanks to both. I feel absolutly fine, no symptoms of anything just a tiny bit concerned because you have no idea who is on the plane with you! Always get a sniff/cough from flying long haul, but this time it just felt a bit more concerned!

Still have both freezers full and plenty of UHT, so can easily manage for a fortnight. Just glad we are retired and don't have to go to work.

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## Fulmar

Now a pandemic according to WHO.

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## orkneycadian

So China has already dropped down to 9th in the league table of cases per head of population.  Below even Denmark and Norway.  Meanwhile the boss of the WHO is "deeply concerned" about "alarming levels of inaction"

What were the naysayers saying the other day?  "Its none worse than seasonal flu - In fact, many more folk die form that".  Ah-ha.

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## orkneycadian

> I've just got back from a trip to the dark continent. Transiting in Doha. So that was four packed flights full of people from every corner of the globe.
> 
> Not a single check on anyone. Sat next to an Italian who was clearly not well for a seven hour flight. No checks or questions at Edinburgh on arrival. Plenty of Chinese seen milling around in Doha airport. 
> 
> Nobody seems worried (apart from me).
> 
> I will be keeping away from the general population for the recommended 12 days, just to make sure. Probably over cautious, but I don't want to be the cause of the first Highland infection.


Welcome back!  Though don't take it personally, but the very fact you are back shows the root of the problem.  Even at this stage, our coastal borders are as porous as a tea bag.  The UK should be easy to "defend" from "foreign" virii, but our insistence on having invisible borders has, in this case so far, cost 6 UK citizens their lives.  The same policy has cost 827 Italian citizens theirs.  All in the name of "freedom of movement".  Its little wonder the WHO are dismayed by the inaction.

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## orkneycadian

> Meanwhile in the UK:
> 
> 'No one has told me to self-isolate...I just want to get back to work': 
> 
> Uber driver is among hundreds returning to Britain from locked-down Italy who say there are NO coronavirus checks or advice at UK airports (same site)


Unfortunately, common sense is not common.

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## Neil Howie

Yeah, also I don't think there's a general understanding out there of what containment is for.
So that the intention so far is to 'flatten the curve', that is delay the outbreak so that the NHS can absorb it.
Here's another graph :Smile: 

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/scie...fight-n1155636
Why flattening the curve may be the worlds best bet to slow the coronavirus

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## Neil Howie

Dr. Fauci sought to rebut the claim — repeated often by President Trump — that the coronavirus was no worse than the flu.


“People always say, ‘Well, the flu does this, the flu does that.’ The flu has a mortality of 0.1 percent. This has a mortality of 10 times that,” Dr. Fauci said.

New York Times

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## orkneycadian

So today could be the day where we "move from the containment phase to the delay phase". What that really means it's that we have totally failed to deal with this, due to the policy of maintaining transparent borders, and foolishly thinking that "contact tracing" would work.

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## Goodfellers

I was only thinking about contact tracing this morning laying in bed. 

I jump when the phone rings, just in case its Qatar airways telling me someone on the flight has tested positive, you then think how many people have I come into contact with. Too many to work out is the answer. Even the car park bus was pretty full, who would know who they were? From the car park forward would be ok.

The way governments around the world are starting to react, I wonder if there is more to this virus than 'they' are telling us. I remember Survivors TV series in the 70's with its intro...passports from all around the world being stamped!   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzKQJXhTUC0

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## Kevin Milkins

They must be starting to take it serious in Wick now, I had an appointment with the nurse at doctors surgery for next Wednesday and it has been cancelled because of the virus containment issue.

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## aqua

> It very much looks like the first rise and fall is almost exclusively China, whilst the second rise is almost exclusively everyone other than China. I fear that in months to come, China's response will have put them at the top of the list for reaction, and bottom of the list for cases / deaths. The farcical part of all this is that China showed the way, and the rest of the world had the chance to watch and learn. But didn't.


Yes, it’s been clear to me for some time that the reaction of most countries has been insufficient. China has had very few new cases per day for more than a week now. At this rate, they could be close to eradicating it by the end of the month!  Except that they probably won’t because it’s hard to stop the occasional reinfection. Ironically, the biggest threat to China may be from outside the country in a few weeks! I’m assuming of course that the China figures are believable.

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## aqua

> Do you include the major cover up that took place in the beginning and silencing people who tried to speak out- and that is still happening right now? The Chinese people are by no means universally happy with their government's response. I would have more respect if they banned the disgusting, utterly horrendous so called wet live 'meat' markets where the problem originated. Bat to pangolin (pangolin being on the brink of extinction) to humans. Could you watch that video that Corky posted the link to yesterday, I could not get to the end of it. As we all know, it is not only meat it is the illegal trade in endangered animals for traditional medicine that also put humans at risk not to mention the immorality of it all. So excuse me if I don't join in with your adulation.


I agree with everything you say. I was referring only to China’s reactions to minimise spread of the virus after the first few weeks. The whole world should put pressure on the Chinese government to close down the wet markets, and to take more action to halt the illegal trade in endangered species.

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## aqua

> I've just got back from a trip to the dark continent. Transiting in Doha. So that was four packed flights full of people from every corner of the globe.
> 
> Not a single check on anyone. Sat next to an Italian who was clearly not well for a seven hour flight. No checks or questions at Edinburgh on arrival. Plenty of Chinese seen milling around in Doha airport. 
> 
> Nobody seems worried (apart from me).
> 
> I will be keeping away from the general population for the recommended 12 days, just to make sure. Probably over cautious, but I don't want to be the cause of the first Highland infection.


I hope you stay well Goodie. 

Im trying to figure out which part of Africa you visited if you had to travel via Doha. It seems a long way round!

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## Goodfellers

Thanks Aqua

Kenya! It was a very good airfare from Edinburgh via Doha.......Would fly direct next time even though it cost far more. 

 Usually fly to Gatwick from Inv then get international flights, but thought I would give Edinburgh a go...shame the Wick flight  to Edinburgh is so expensive, that would have saved a six hour drive.

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## aqua

Ok, that makes sense. I hope you had a good trip. 

The rest of us should try to keep you entertained (or exasperated) during your isolation!

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## aqua

> The way governments around the world are starting to react, I wonder if there is more to this virus than 'they' are telling us. I remember Survivors TV series in the 70's with its intro...passports from all around the world being stamped!   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzKQJXhTUC0


I’ve had that thought too. Think Planet of the Apes!

Fear and paranoia have a bad effect on my brain.

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## Goodfellers

So, BBC just announce 10 deaths from C-19.....yet go back a few months to 10th December and 800 were dying (a week) from 'normal' flu and nobody seemed bothered. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...me-winter.html

Why are the authorities getting so worked up about C-19?

 Internet is no good, it's full of speculation and hype. Press love 'end of the world' stories.

----------


## Fulmar

Yesterday I heard a great conspiracy theory that it is a deliberate ploy to get rid of all us 'everything is your fault' oldies! Meantime, in Thurso Co-Op, panic buying has evidently been rife as not a loo roll in sight! Wonderful, ain't it- no shortage of loo rolls except that which people have created themselves. That's what you get when you tell people 'no need to panic'!

----------


## Goodfellers

> Yesterday I heard a great conspiracy theory that it is a deliberate ploy to get rid of all us 'everything is your fault' oldies! Meantime, in Thurso Co-Op, panic buying has evidently been rife as not a loo roll in sight! Wonderful, ain't it- no shortage of loo rolls except that which people have created themselves. That's what you get when you tell people 'no need to panic'!


At least printers ink doesn't come off newspapers anymore!  :Grin:

----------


## Fulmar

I wasn't going to say on here in case it got out but I know you won't tell anybody Goodfellers. So, I did happen to notice that there were still boxes of tissues and some kitchen rolls available. That is about the extent of my powers of lateral thinking and besides, I was too intent on stocking up on my favourite brand of filter coffee and will be seriously put out if that is panic bought by anyone else!

----------


## aqua

> Well if Italy has now copied China in order to contain the virus, _maybe we should do that too_? _And do it now?_
> 
> *'This is Britain in a fortnight': Scientist reveals UK is on same trajectory as Italy and is two weeks away from a similar coronavirus lockdown*
> 
> How many days behind
> 
> Sorry dailymail but was the first site I found with graphs!


Thanks for posting this. The agreement between those graphs is impressive. The total number of UK cases increased by about 30% today, in agreement with the predictions. The number of cases in Scotland increased by almost 70% today, which I would guess is much higher than the percentage well see for the next week or so - I hope!

The government(s) must take firmer action now, surely!

----------


## aqua

> So, BBC just announce 10 deaths from C-19.....yet go back a few months to 10th December and 800 were dying (a week) from 'normal' flu and nobody seemed bothered. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...me-winter.html
> 
> Why are the authorities getting so worked up about C-19?
> 
>  Internet is no good, it's full of speculation and hype. Press love 'end of the world' stories.


The death rate from the Coronavirus is much higher than for seasonal flu, and this country is in the very early stages of the Corona pandemic. If everyone in the UK catches it and the death rate is 6% as suggested by the simple-minded measure on the Worldometers site, then it will kill four million people in the UK alone!

That’s a worst case scenario (I hope!).

----------


## aqua

If the UK rate of increase stays at today’s 33% per day, we will have more cases than China by the end of the month, and everyone in the UK will have it by late April, if I’ve done my sums right.

Edited, as I definitely didn’t get my sums right for April!

----------


## Corky Smeek

A little black humour is called for, I think.

The Be Good Tanyas' fantastic version of the Townes van Zandt classic "Waiting Around To Die".

----------


## The Horseman

Aqua...now how do you know if ‘any’ Country in the World is accurately reporting their cases of the illness.
And the average rate of Death so far is approx 3%.
It’s just too early to tell.  We are at the beginning. 
Listen to Prezzzzz Trump/ he is my Hero!

----------


## The Horseman

> a little black humour is called for, i think.
> 
> The be good tanyas' fantastic version of the townes van zandt classic "waiting around to die".


oh deary me.

----------


## Neil Howie

> Why are the authorities getting so worked up about C-19?


I think the reasoning is that a large spike in hospitalisations is very bad for the health service.

China, having largely resolved it's cases, is now worried about being re-infected by the rest of the world,

----------


## Neil Howie

> Aqua...now how do you know if ‘any’ Country in the World is accurately reporting their cases of the illness.


Like say Iran?  seems to have an unusually high number of death to infection rate suggests infection may be wider spread than they let on?
For the truly paranoid nothing will suffice.
For his part Trump at least tried to calm the markets, shame their healthcare system is a mess $3000 for a test, who was going to get that done?

----------


## Neil Howie

*So much interesting information in this interview  

Interview regarding World Health Organization (WHO) mission to China, led by the agency’s assistant director general and veteran epidemiologist**Bruce Aylward*I think the key learning from China is speed — it’s all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you’re going to be. Another big takeaway is that even when you have substantial transmission with a lot of clusters — because people are looking at the situation in some countries now and going, “Oh, gosh, what can be done?” — what China demonstrates is if you settle down, roll up your sleeves, and begin that systematic work of case finding and contact tracing, you definitely can change the shape of the outbreak, take the heat out of it, and prevent a lot of people from getting sick and a lot of the most vulnerable from dying.
...

More of a surprise, and this is something we still don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community. Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been done, how many people were tested, and who were they.


In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the population.


*Julia Belluz*If you didn’t find the “iceberg” of mild cases in China, what does it say about how deadly the virus is — the case fatality rate?
*Bruce Aylward*It says you’re probably not way off. The average case fatality rate is 3.8 percent in China, but a lot of that is driven by the early epidemic in Wuhan where numbers were higher. If you look outside of Hubei province [where Wuhan is], the case fatality rate is just under 1 percent now. I would not quote that as the number. That’s the mortality in China — and they find cases fast, get them isolated, in treatment, and supported early. Second thing they do is ventilate dozens in the average hospital; they use extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [removing blood from a person’s body and oxygenating their red blood cells] when ventilation doesn’t work. This is sophisticated health care. They have a survival rate for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.

----------


## aqua

> Aqua...now how do you know if ‘any’ Country in the World is accurately reporting their cases of the illness.
> And the average rate of Death so far is approx 3%.
> It’s just too early to tell.  We are at the beginning. 
> Listen to Prezzzzz Trump/ he is my Hero!


i don’t know if any country in the world has an accurate measure of their number of cases. I can only work with the data that’s available to the public. My guess is that South Korea has the most accurate figures because they’ve done far more tests than anyone else and will have picked up very mild cases. Similarly, USA numbers will be vastly underestimated because they’ve done very few tests. 

The simple-minded death rate of 6% came from Worldometers and is defined to be the number of deaths divided by the number of recoveries+deaths thus far. It’s probably a significant overestimate of the true figure at this stage of the outbreak, although it’s heading upwards due to the (nominal?) high death rate in Italy. 

Trump is out of his depth as usual.

----------


## aqua

Thanks for posting the Bruce Aylward interview Neil. I didnt do my homework on the level of testing in China, but I had picked up that the level of healthcare in China is very high. The death rate in Italy is very worrying because their healthcare system seems to have a good reputation. All data points towards the need for early diagnosis and rapid response, both in terms of isolation and medical intervention.

----------


## The Horseman

[QUOTE=aqua;1190900]i don’t know if any country in the world has an accurate measure of their number of cases. I can only work with the data that’s available to the public. *
*********My guess is that South Korea has the most accurate figures because they’ve done far more tests than anyone else and will have picked up very mild cases. Similarly, USA numbers will be vastly underestimated because they’ve done very few tests. 

**********The simple-minded death rate of 6% came from Worldometers and is defined to be the number of deaths divided by the number of recoveries thus far. It’s probably a significant overestimate of the true figure at this stage of the outbreak, although it’s heading upwards due to the (nominal?) high death rate in Italy. 

Trump is out of his depth as usual.[/QUOT

The highlighted areas are dangerous statements....Guess/Simple minded and your comment on Trump.
You have absolutely No Idea of what you speak....The prob is that some people mite believe u!
This is not personal....Just watch what U post.

----------


## orkneycadian

Tomorrow folks, you will witness one of the biggest local acts of stupidity in this saga.  According to Worldometers, Italy has the highest concentration, as a country, of cases, with 250 per million people. Shetland meanwhile has 6 cases out of 21000, beating Italy with 285 cases per million. Right about now, a cruise ship is docking in Shetland, having come from Iceland, where they have 117 cases out of 364,260 of a population. A concentration even higher than Shetland. 

Tomorrow morning, that cruise ship docks in Orkney. Present count of cases here is zero. The ship will disgorge all its passengers to congregate (a lot more than 500) and pass on their lurgies.

Many folk have protested to the council through Radio Orkney, the Orcadian and social media, to no avail. Money for the harbours department is apparently more important than the health of elderly Orcadians.

Once it's here, it's just a short hop across 'e watter to you folks. So when you get it, you can blame Orkney Islands Council.

----------


## aqua

Disgorging hundreds of cruise ship passengers in a virus free area is surely insane. 

Later today, Italy will overtake China to become the country with the highest number of recorded active cases. I expect a huge number of new UK cases be announced today. Meanwhile, Beijing sounds good:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...-fife-51857424

----------


## orkneycadian

> The simple-minded death rate of 6% came from Worldometers and is defined to be the number of deaths divided by the number of recoveries thus far. It’s probably a significant overestimate of the true figure at this stage of the outbreak, although it’s heading upwards due to the (nominal?) high death rate in Italy.


To me, that seems a more accurate way that the governments favoured one, which is number of deaths / number of cases.  That conveniently assumes that everyone who actively has it at the time of the calculation, will recover, and will not die.  Which is a bit naive.  Rather bluntly, it does seem that you are confirmed dead quicker than you are confirmed recovered.  But as time progresses, then that will start to settle out.  


and seems to have bottomed out at 6% (the orange line) and is starting a slight swing back up at 7% at the moment.  That graph shows well the effect that time has in averaging out the values.  The same calculation for Italy at the moment gives 45%.  But that is relatively new data, and too will settle out as people are declared "recovered" and averaging takes effect.

----------


## aqua

Agreed on all counts. If the published data is accurate, I first thought that the two methods would put upper and lower limits on the mortality rate, but the upper limits will be unreliable if a significant fraction of the seriously ill eventually die after a long period of illness. I have no idea how (un)likely this is. 

Ive been looking at those plots too, and Im sure youre right about having to wait to get an accurate mortality rate. Look at the plot for Italy, it was all over the place for a while, whereas the rate is now smooth but rising!

----------


## orkneycadian

Seems that Orkney Islands Council are hell bent on bringing it to Orkney early.

https://www.orcadian.co.uk/cruise-sh...ublic-concern/

----------


## orkneycadian

Seems we can put the pitchforks and water cannon away. The cruise company have announced they are cancelling. Less than 1 hour after Orkney Islands Council put out a statement saying that they had not given any consideration whatsoever to closing ports to cruise liners.  Doughballs.

----------


## aqua

Great news. I just hope theyre not diverting the cruise ship to Scrabster!

----------


## orkneycadian

Nope, left Shetland, heading back to Tilbury to disembark all the afflicted there.

----------


## The Horseman

FYI.......82 Countries with over 1Billion souls.......Yes, with One Billion people have not reported anyone afflicted......
Remember that in the Analysis!

----------


## Fulmar

There is no evidence that anyone on that cruise ship was infected orkneycadian. Iceland has cases, so does the UK and people from the UK are going all over as per usual on the regular ferries and disembarking in Orkney. Your island relies heavily on tourism and are you planning to turn everyone away for months to come?

----------


## orkneycadian

Yes, our island(s) relies(y) heavily on tourism.  But real tourism, not the kind the council have manufactured.  Cruise liner passengers benefit very few, apart from Marine Services, an arms length company owned by the council.  But they claim that money raised within Marine Services is ringfenced, and cannot be spent elsewhere.  So they can afford new pilot boats (built in Spain) and tugs (built in Turkey), but cannot spend it on new ferries for the public to use.  Sure, there are a small number of locals that benefit - Bus operators, tour guides and the likes.  But the vast majority see no benefit whatsoever, and in fact only see disruption.  Local shops sell very little to them - The odd trinket perhaps - Local cafes and restaurants don't do well from them - The passengers eat all they can at breakfast on the ship and fill their pockets with fruit and croissants to see them through the day, then go back aboard at night for their all inclusive banquets.  Local cafe owners complain that they come into their premises, buy 1 small coffee, then sit for 3 hours hogging the tables and wifi whilst they upload all their holiday selfies. People who sell postcards complain that the cruise liner passengers take post cards out of racks, photograph them, then put them back in the wrong place.  

Meanwhile, over at the "tourist attractions" (5000 year old bits of stone covered in moss....), the real tourists, the ones that come here for a week or 2, spend their money locally on accommodation, restaurants, etc, are not allowed in, as the sites have been block booked for the cruise passengers.  They then go home and tell their friends not to bother to come to Orkney - Its overrun with cruise passengers who squeezed them out of everywhere.

There is for sure rejoicing going on all over Orkney this morning, that the scourge of the cruise liners has at least been delayed till the 4th of April, when the next one is due.  That's the same one that was due today, so that too may be cancelled. 

We see the same issues here as Venice and Dubrovnik, albeit on a smaller scale.  Many folk say that Orkney is now "ruined" as a holiday destination, and thats before the first case of coronavirus.  Indeed, there may be no evidence that anyone was infected on the Magellan, but with people being infections for 5 days before the symptoms show, how would we know?  And now that the UK has effectively abolished testing, unless you are already hospitalised, then the Medical Declarations that the ships are supposed to present mean nothing.  And yes, the ferries and planes are still running as normal, at the moment.  Should we suspend them for all but freight?  Possibly.  But there, there is a much greater balancing act between bio security and economic disruption.  Much more than will ever be the case with the cruise passengers spending, we understand, less than £10 a head on their shore visits.

----------


## Neil Howie

> I’ve been looking at those plots too, and I’m sure you’re right about having to wait to get an accurate mortality rate. Look at the plot for Italy, it was all over the place for a while, whereas the rate is now smooth but rising!


Yeah 4 weeks ago Italy had 3 cases, now it according to Worldstats it has 2,547 new cases and 250 new deaths. Highest number of deaths per day in the world ever (including China at its peak) has been reported in Italy in each of the last four days.

Newt Gingrich living in Italy writes for Foxnews:




> The coronavirus is out of control of in Northern Italy. As of 6 pm local / 1 pm EST on March 10, there were 15,113 total cases in Italy, with 12,839 active cases, 1,016 deaths, and 1,258 recoveries. There are 162 total cases here in Rome.
> 
> The hardest-hit region around Milan has had to improvise as its health system has been deeply stressed by the sheer number of patients. In Milan and Brescia, field hospitals have been set up in the fairgrounds as the local hospitals have been drowned in patients.
> 
> Because the demand for respirators and intensive care has been beyond any previous planning, doctors have been forced into the kind of triage thinking developed for intense battlefield casualty situations. There are reports that emergency room doctors are allotting respirators to those with higher life expectancy due to the limited equipment in the hardest-hit areas of the province. If you are older or have other illnesses, you may simply not be eligible for treatment.

----------


## Fulmar

The UK has not abolished testing- where did you get that from?

----------


## Neil Howie

> FYI.......82 Countries with over 1Billion souls.......Yes, with One Billion people have not reported anyone afflicted......
> Remember that in the Analysis!


At this stage there are still many positives.

Sorry link requires subscription that I don't have.

*Coronavirus: Scots scientist says vaccine trials set for next month**The Scottish scientist responsible for developing a global vaccine to combat the deadly coronavirus has said it will be available for clinical trials on humans next month.*

----------


## Neil Howie

> The UK has not abolished testing- where did you get that from?


It refers to the situation in Italy and the link to the article is there.

----------


## orkneycadian

> The UK has not abolished testing- where did you get that from?





> And now that the UK has effectively abolished testing, unless you are already hospitalised


https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi...for-the-public
*What to do if you have symptoms*Stay at home for 7 days if you have either:

a high temperaturea new continuous cough
This will help to protect others in your community while you are infectious.
Do not go to a GP surgery, pharmacy or hospital.
You do not need to contact NHS 111 to tell them you’re staying at home.
*We will not be testing people who are self-isolating with mild symptoms.*

----------


## orkneycadian

I reckon we are now entering a period where the stats will start to get a bit less relevant, especially for the UK.  If the only folk being tested are those that have been hospitalised, because their symptoms have deteriorated whilst self isolating as per the guidance, then what was previously "confirmed cases" will become the tip of the iceberg, with all the folk that stay at home and have mild symptoms, being totally off the radar.  I expect we will have much more of "estimated cases" if they are even mentioned at all.

This will likely make the mortality rate look worse than it is.  At present, deaths divided by total cases with an outcome is around 7%.  I guess the deaths will always be reported, but all the cases where folk recover at home, and never even do as much as call 111 will go unrecorded.  This will create an artificially high mortality rate on sites like Worldometers.  But possibly, enough data has passed through there to see that the mortality rate is stubbornly hanging around the 6 or 7% mark.

----------


## orkneycadian

I also suspect we may be entereing a phase of massively blocked drains and sewers.....



So this guy with the rucksack couldn't get bog roll, so has stocked up on "Plenty" kitchen roll.  Will do the job he intends it for, but will not break down when wet, and will do a grand job of blocking the drains!

----------


## Neil Howie

Not mine :Smile:

----------


## Goodfellers

I can see why 'isolated' comunities don't want visitors. 

I'm booked for the IOM TT in June, organisers say it will still go ahead come what may, but locals don't want it to happen, health services could not cope, so they have started a petition to ban this years event. It will cost me a fair bit if cancelled, but I fully understand why locals may not welcome us.

https://www.three.fm/news/isle-of-ma...pkgU1YOupVmrtk

----------


## aqua

People who understand data are at last making significant noises that are being covered in the media:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

Here are a few relevant links in one place. 

The letter from practising scientists is here:

http://maths.qmul.ac.uk/~vnicosia/UK...s_measures.pdf

The detailed analysis of the data they reference is here:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca

It gives a very detailed analysis of the growth and spread of the virus, plus an analysis of why the death rate is so different at different times and in different countries. 

The open letter from Italian scientists is here:

https://left.it/2020/03/13/covid_19-...fic-community/

Im going to email local politicians (MP and MSP probably)  to demand more urgent action. I urge everyone who reads these reports and agrees with the conclusions to do the same.

----------


## aqua

To summarise the conclusions referred to above:

Unless the government(s) force(s) more social distancing NOW, the countrys hospitals will be overwhelmed in a week or so, and the death rate could be four times higher than it would be if they took action now.

Not only would the death rate be much lower, the total number of deaths in a given period would be reduced much further because far fewer people would have the virus in the first place!

Thats a lot of lives saved!

There may not be any cases in Caithness yet, but there surely will be soon.

----------


## orkneycadian

Alas, the time for action was long ago.  Borders should have been closed months ago.  But no, its "Think of the economic impact - An little Johnny really wants to go on the school trip to Italy".

Instead, we now have the economic impact, little Johnny's school trip cancelled, and lots of old folk pegging out in hospitals that are rapidly overloading.  For years, people have warned of the impact of porous borders, and this is the outcome.  Old folk being told they may have to stay at home, no visitors for 4 months.  And that's just to avoid the threat of death.  Freedom of movement huh?

----------


## orkneycadian

I see that China are now 17th in the league table of "cases per million of a population" and about to drop into 18th place when the Netherlands shortly overtake them.  UK still in 28th place, but no doubt will pass China in the near future.I also see that China are very close to having less total cases than "the rest of the world".  All according to published statistics, which we know are likely to drift more and more in the future as countries become less able to quantify their outbreaks.

----------


## Neil Howie

> I see that China are now 17th in the league table of "cases per million of a population" and about to drop into 18th place when the Netherlands shortly overtake them.  UK still in 28th place, but no doubt will pass China in the near future.I also see that China are very close to having less total cases than "the rest of the world".  All according to published statistics, which we know are likely to drift more and more in the future as countries become less able to quantify their outbreaks.


China now worried about catching it back from the West.

Nice to see them donating equipment, supplies to Italy too.  



> ROME (Reuters) - A planeload of medical supplies, including masks and respirators, has arrived in Italy from China to help it deal with its growing coronavirus crisis.


It's sad that the likely reliable indicator will be the mortality rate.  Saw this bit on the  BBC news today, linked from Yahoo




> A single page of obituaries is seen with photos of the deceased followed by another half a page.
> He then opens Fridays edition of the same newspaper.
> Mr Locatelli counts 10 pages, one by one, of obituaries.

----------


## Neil Howie

meanwhile in the uk



*Cheltenham Festival 2020*

----------


## Corky Smeek

I thought that the US ban on flights from EU26 came into effect yesterday.

The image below is a screen grab from planefinder.net at about 15h15 today.



There are still dozens of flights in the air. I checked, and many are just freight but many more are passenger flights from all over Europe including Italy. For example, Alitalia Flight AZ630 is currently on its way from Rome to Miami. These flights can't all be full of Americans going home surely.

----------


## ScottishWalrus

3OOOO dead in the US so far this year from influenza against 30 dead from coronovirus and twelve of those from the same old folks home!

Are we panicking about the right virus??? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgXJQPC3Ro8

----------


## Fulmar

Think it depends how old you are and what your state of general health happens to be. I am not panicked but I am concerned, like everyone else I should imagine. I can be vaccinated against flu (and I am) but not against this coronavirus as yet. I am glad of the approach in Scotland and feel well informed by the Scottish Government and generally supportive of the measure in the UK.

----------


## Alrock



----------


## The Horseman

> Think it depends how old you are and what your state of general health happens to be. I am not panicked but I am concerned, like everyone else I should imagine. I can be vaccinated against flu (and I am) but not against this coronavirus as yet. I am glad of the approach in Scotland and feel well informed by the Scottish Government and generally supportive of the measure in the UK.


Let me change my intro! 
**********The CDC states that vaccination may prevent up to 50% of the infections.  There is a newer/ stronger vaccination for over 65’s., which May assist, but nothing is guaranteed
Of course one must take stats into account...
So far this year in America, there have been 30,000 deaths associated to ‘common flu, whereas Covid19 is attributed to approx 30 deaths...now 60!
I am not diminishing the situation, but when panic sets in it stresses people out, weakening their Immune Systems, thus making one more susceptible to ill effects.
The facts are set out by the Centre for Disease Control.  I didn’t make them up.

----------


## The Horseman

It’s time the Western World did what occurred in China.  
Lock every infected person in their Hospital/Internment camps which they built in approx 7 days.
We are so far behind these ‘poor people’!
The Chinese are so far advanced.... In Canada/North America they send people home to ‘self isolate’ and then those people go to concerts etc and infect so many others.
There is a lot to say about an ‘Authoritarian Regime’....they get the job done.

----------


## orkneycadian

> 3OOOO dead in the US so far this year from influenza against 30 dead from coronovirus and twelve of those from the same old folks home!
> 
> Are we panicking about the right virus??? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgXJQPC3Ro8


I think exponential curves, and logarithmic scales are lost on some....  :Frown:

----------


## Fulmar

_No one is vaccinated against the flu!_??????
I am and so is every nurse and doctor in the NHS.

----------


## aqua

> I think exponential curves, and logarithmic scales are lost on some....


They will learn the hard way as this thing gets worse. 




> _No one is vaccinated against the flu!_??????
> I am and so is every nurse and doctor in the NHS.


I think he was trying to say that flu vaccines reduce the risk of flu illness by about 50%. 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm

----------


## The Horseman

Thank you Aqua.   That is what I said.
We can be on the same page’!

----------


## orkneycadian

> They will learn the hard way as this thing gets worse.


The below video of toppling dominoes might help them.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6KNAKSe7Dg

The starting dominoes running round the outside are toppling linearly.  The rate of topple is consistent.  When the triangle kicks off, the rate of topple increases by 1 on each row.

We are still somewhere up near the peak of the triangle with the "So what, more folk die of seasonal flu" mentality.  The same mentatlity that assumes that the whole triangle of dominoes will somehow be prevented from toppling.

----------


## mi16

> 


valuable input.
In other words, so be it?

----------


## Fulmar

Actually, that is not the full picture with regard to flu vaccination as there is good evidence that vaccination reduces the severity of symptoms and duration of the illness if one is infected and also, possibly provides some protection against other strains of flu. It is to be hoped that any vaccine developed for covid 19 will achieve at least that and hopefully much more, especially since some scientists believe that this will be an ongoing, annual disease.

----------


## Goodfellers

I see Rock Rose gin have made hand sanitiser and given it free to doctors surgeries and care homes. 

Well done to them.

----------


## Fulmar

Yes, brilliant and I believe the gin is very good too!

----------


## mi16

> I see Rock Rose gin have made hand sanitiser and given it free to doctors surgeries and care homes. 
> 
> Well done to them.


great touch

----------


## Goodfellers

Am I the only one who wonders what it tastes like?   :Smile:

----------


## mi16

> Am I the only one who wonders what it tastes like?


Coffee...
Or should that be coughy

----------


## Fulmar

Well that's us on way to a lock down now.

----------


## orkneycadian

China now looks pretty much like an "also ran" in this carry on.  18th in the league table of Cases per Million of Population, less than half of the cases in the world and daily new cases in the low double digits.

I think I would rather drink hand sanitiser than gin.  Isn't there a "distillery" in Caithness that makes something like "It would bring tears to a crofters eyes"?  My guess is it probably would.  There used to be a small "craft" distillery on Orkney made "Crofters Choice" whisky.  Or as it became known "It'll do if you don't have any meths"

----------


## mi16

Im not sure Id describe the reason we are facing this pandemic as an also ran.

----------


## Fulmar

Lets not forget where this all started and which draconian regime suppressed all knowledge of it at first and allowed its citizens and others to continue 'business as usual' so that now, the whole world is affected. That is fact and its not the first time either.

----------


## mi16

when and if we get over this, some questions need to be asked of China regarding this matter

----------


## Goodfellers

This is meant to be humerous, not offensive to anyone.

----------


## mi16

was just saying this to the other half he other day, its absolutely true.
Probably the right thing to do also, every man for himself and all that

----------


## orkneycadian

> Lets not forget where this all started and which draconian regime suppressed all knowledge of it at first and allowed its citizens and others to continue 'business as usual'


I don't think its Chinas fault that coutries like the UK decided to continue "business as usual".  The UK had ample opportunity to close its borders, even after the outbreak in China.  But the we had to have open and porous borders.  China had nothing to do with that.  If the UK had "proper borders", then we would not be in today's situation.

----------


## Corky Smeek

I thought Unionists didn't want Borders.  https://twitter.com/votenoborders?lang=en

----------


## orkneycadian

So in much of the world, the horse has already bolted and is running at full canter.  All we can do now is sit back and marvel at the hysteria as the sheeple try to catch it - Rather comically, using toilet roll.

Even here in Orkney its out of hand.  Folk are panic buying everything from coal to bottled water.  And its not going to make a blind bit of difference at this stage.  Its now going to be what it will be.  Best we can hope for is to see how many come out the other side, and then we can look back and realise that borders have a function after all.  Unfortunately, there might not be so many of us who can look back - Sure, the population will still have grown - But some of the oldies will have gone, and the babies less than a year old will have no appreciation of the situation.

Hopefully, it will go down as lesson learned.

----------


## orkneycadian

Having a mild interest in numbers and statistics, and now that the published stats are really starting to drift from reality - Realistic number of UK cases is likely to be in the 100,000 region, rather than the claimed 2,000 - I thought it might be fun to review the growth in statistics;

----------


## mi16

> I thought Unionists didn't want Borders.  https://twitter.com/votenoborders?lang=en


Bore off mate

----------


## Corky Smeek

> Bore off mate


Just exposing hypocrisy, that's all.

----------


## mi16

> Just exposing hypocrisy, that's all.


why not keep your independence stuff to your independence threads.

----------


## Corky Smeek

> Another SNP clusterf...


You mean like this utterly non-political post. Nothing but hypocrisy all the time.

----------


## mi16

> You mean like this utterly non-political post. Nothing but hypocrisy all the time.


was a valid response to the OP statement re the kids hospital in Edinburgh, which was some 8 pages back.

----------


## Corky Smeek

> was a valid response to the OP statement re the kids hospital in Edinburgh, which was some 8 pages back.


That was in a thread entitled "Coronavirus".  You brought the SNP into the discussion, in the second post on the thread, not me.

----------


## mi16

> The Chinese don't hang about when they set their minds to it;
> 
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ital-WEEK.html
> 
> *Hundreds of heavy-duty vehicles and armies of workers are gathered overnight as China vows to build a 1,000-bed coronavirus hospital from scratch in ONE WEEK*
> 
> 
> How long have they been at the Sick Kids Hospital in Edinburgh, and when does it open?



Just for Corky, I dont care about the thread title, this was the opening post, and my reply was and still is valid in relation to that.

Now the thread has developed over the months to have no bearing on any independence argument you may have, so kindly, as requested before, please bore off elsewhere

----------


## Corky Smeek

> I dont care about the thread title


If that's true why are you getting so upset?

----------


## mi16

> If that's true why are you getting so upset?


Upset?
No, sorry I dont follow your thinking, thankfully

----------


## Goodfellers

Apparently half of us will be dead this time next week......a bit of humour to lighten the mood   :Smile:

----------


## Alrock

> Attachment 35201


Reminds me off...

----------


## Goodfellers

> Reminds me off...



That was actually quite satisfying watching him make that!

----------


## Neil Howie

Some good news:

Coronavirus: Experiment in northern Italian town halts all new infections after trial

From Sky news

It's like the WHO said - WHO head: 'Our key message is: test, test, test'

He said it is not possible to "fight a fire blindfolded", and social distancing measures and handwashing will not alone extinguish the epidemic.

----------


## aqua

Thats obviously the way to go. Its evidently doable in a small town, and the Chinese, South Koreans and Singaporeans have done it for cities. Can we do it? Surely we must try.

----------


## orkneycadian

Well, you can try if you like. But the time for action was months ago. That window of opportunity has now passed, and only now are folk thinking about it. 

When folk can't even be trusted to buy bog roll responsibly, there's no chance of them behaving responsibly in a lockdown. 

And if forced to lockdown, then all we will hear of is infringement of civil liberties and Human Rights. 

It's like having a castle with a moat around it. Its best defence, when an aggressive attacker rides over the hill, is to pull up the drawbridge and keep the attacker at least the width of the moat away. Our drawbridge is still down, and column after column of the enemy continue to ride in and massacre the occupants of the castle. Meanwhile, the occupants are preoccupied with buying toilet roll. At that stage, pulling up the drawbridge is rather futile.

----------


## The Horseman

Yes, you are correct.
Just reading about perhaps over 100,000 in Southern Florida partying on the beach over the March break.
No one is listening......people left Canada and went to Southern Countries with a warning not to go.
Now the Borders are closed and they are calling for emergency flights home....And the Insurance Companies have notified them that their Insurance is being cancelled in less than 10 days.
Totally irresponsible!

----------


## Alrock

Scary Stuff... 

Coronavirus: 'They call it the apocalypse' - inside Italy's hardest-hit hospital

----------


## Goodfellers

Just been out for my paper. Streams of people going into Lidl, buying anything edable. No one is going to stop 'panic' buying until the shelves have food on them again. It's a vicious cycle.

Government and CEO's telling us there is plenty of food in the supply chain. No one believes you.

Use the army to transport foodstuffs and a few soldiers with each delivery to restock shelves and one or two burly sqaddies by the tills to makes sure customers only buy one of everything.

It really will become survival of the fittest soon.

Ps anyone know how to kill and butcher a sheep....just for future reference.

----------


## Alrock

> ...Ps anyone know how to kill and butcher a sheep....just for future reference.


You provide a sheep & I'll give it a go, plenty of videos on YouTube.

----------


## orkneycadian

I can just see it now. Ravenous townies, down to their last 3 pallets of pasta, hacking open a sheep, spewing on the spot then wondering why it isnt full of oven ready cuts on polystyrene trays.

----------


## Goodfellers

> I can just see it now. Ravenous townies, down to their last 3 pallets of pasta, hacking open a sheep, spewing on the spot then wondering why it isnt full of oven ready cuts on polystyrene trays.


That wont be too far from the truth!. When I ran a poultry farm we had organised groups visit every now and then. Kids were horrified to actually watch a hot wet egg come out of a hens backside. They swore they would never eat another one.

----------


## Corky Smeek

Some sound advice.

----------


## orkneycadian

So the predicted utter farce descends upon the UK.  Governments promising vast amounts of cash they don't have, in exchange for a request to internally suffer massive disruption.  Meanwhile, on the borders.....


OK, not all of those inbound flights are for the UK - Some are overflying and heading for France, Germany, Switczerland, etc. And to think, all this disruption could have been avoided if we had simply stopped people entering the country.  Thats all, nothing more.  But they said that doing that would have "an economic impact".  Ah-ha.

----------


## orkneycadian

The UK's position in the league table of "Cases per 1 million of population" = 44th
China's position = 54th

The only position China has at the top of any list now is total number of cases as an individual country.  And will likely lose that spot to Italy in less than a week.  

But still folk think they can change the outcome of Coronavirus at this ridiculously late stage.

----------


## carrepairman

This idea of Tesco`s to allow a priority hour to the over 70`s and NHS staff etc can not possibily work, The store opens at 6am so the store is immeadiatly full of shoppers, So come 9am there is nowt left. Then do they chuck everyone out of the store for an hour? No they do not.

----------


## orkneycadian

> ..... Tesco`s...... The store opens at 6am


At last!   :Grin:   The perpetual question that this forum has been asking for the last 10 years has been answered!  Admin, can the above post be pinned so that the question need never be asked again?

----------


## Alrock

> At last!    The perpetual question that this forum has been asking for the last 10 years has been answered!  Admin, can the above post be pinned so that the question need never be asked again?


Only for Wickers... 7am here in Thurso.

----------


## Fulmar

Interesting read in the FT:
https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-...f-41bea055720b

----------


## Alrock

> Interesting read in the FT:
> https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-...f-41bea055720b



Hidden behind a paywall, C&P please.

----------


## aqua

I followed Fulmars link and also hit the paywall. 

Then I Googled  Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population  Oxford study.

This avoided the paywall, at least for me.

The result of the Oxford study isnt popular amongst other scientists:

https://www.livescience.com/amp/half...s-covid19.html

Its hard to know what to think when professional epidiomologists at leading universities come up with such disparate models!

We need data. We need to test, test, test, and then test some more. Like they do in China.

----------


## Fulmar

_We need data. We need to test, test, test, and then test some more._

Absolutely!

----------


## aqua

Absolutely indeed! And when that testing is finished - test even more!

This particular amateur epidemiologist read and approved of an article in the Guardian by real epidemiologist Adam Kucharski of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine:

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...irus-modelling

----------


## Neil Howie

I would not be against supermarkets reserving items or areas for NHS staff either, though that might be a bit difficult to manage

----------


## Neil Howie

Curious study from Iceland.

Although some sites are taking away the headline that there could be a lot of asymptomatic people out there, it was a surprise to me that they found -




> 40 coronavirus mutations among infected people in the country.



but more worryingly (real word)




> A single person has been found to be infected with two variants of new coronavirus.


I wonder if the exposure to multiple strains is what is killing young-ish healthy doctors and nurses in other countries ?

I hope this link works! Google translated Icelandic newspaper

----------


## aqua

Interesting. Thanks for posting it. 

I followed the link, which led to the original Danish(?) version. I fed it to Google translate by hand. 

I was aware that coronaviruses mutate rapidly, which is why we don’t have a vaccine for the common cold, but I had no idea just how rapidly. I would guess that contracting two variants of the virus could be much worse than one, but I’ll not speculate because I really don’t know enough about all this. 

Mutations are not necessarily bad because they tend to cause the virus population to grow to be less harmful. The most harmful mutations don’t spread as rapidly because they immobilise their host, who becomes unable to move around and thereby unable to spread the more dangerous version. This is why the most dangerous viruses are less difficult to contain. Covid-19 is bad because it sits in the middle, it kills a small fraction so it can still spread like crazy. 

Well, that’s my understanding. I’m happy to be corrected by the more knowledgeable.

----------


## aqua

> At last!    The perpetual question that this forum has been asking for the last 10 years has been answered!  Admin, can the above post be pinned so that the question need never be asked again?


He’s finally found out when Tesco opens, and now he’s vanished from the forum. Has he been panic buying in Tesco ever since?

----------


## Corky Smeek

The view from El Diablo in Bath (aka Wings Over Scotland)

https://wingsoverscotland.com/lets-not-kill-ourselves/

----------


## Goodfellers

> The view from El Diablo in Bath (aka Wings Over Scotland)
> 
> https://wingsoverscotland.com/lets-not-kill-ourselves/


I've got to agree with that, driving to somewhere to walk or exercise your dog should be allowed, most information online and info from police says it is not allowed (just googled 'can i drive to a beauty spot to walk') Top answer below
https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.c...lained-2519615

Needs making much clearer whether you can or can't.

----------


## Neil Howie

I thought this was an unusually high number, continue to seek an explanation:





> ROME - Day after day the list of doctors who died on the field for Covid-19 is growing.And the total rises to *51*.


link
You may have to post the link into google and then select "translate this page"

----------


## aqua

Yes, its a high number indeed. I wonder what the infection rate is amongst medical staff.

----------


## Fulmar

''In Italy, a 101-year-old man who tested positive for Covid-19 has recovered''
I read this on BBC site and felt it was something positive.

----------


## aqua

I saw that too. Fantastic!

----------


## Corky Smeek

There's this too:-

----------


## Goodfellers

Good to see police south of the border are taking this out break seriously


 Nice that they have a decent sense of humour!

----------


## Fulmar

I heard on the news just now that a guy got tasered for coughing over officers and claiming that he had the virus. He was tested and he was thankfully negative but let's hope that message gets out to those who need to hear it. Cough over us and we'll zap you!

----------


## aqua

*Absolutely wrong': how UK's coronavirus test strategy unravelled*

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...egy-unravelled

This is the Guardians view on the UK governments strategy for dealing with the virus. In brief, the government was wrong about everything.

----------


## The Horseman

No matter what, ‘every’ Gov’t is wrong. 
No one is ever correct, whatever the outcome.
Its like Politics encroaches on everything that’s done, good or bad!

----------


## aqua

The countries that have been most successful in containing the virus and saving lives have big testing programmes. We need to test, isolate those with positive tests, track down their contacts and test them. This is what China did. And South Korea did. And Taiwan. And Germany to some extent.

The government has listened too much to the mathematical modellers. It should have listened to the medical practitioners. This sounds like Dominic Cummings influence.

----------


## Corky Smeek

I take the point about mathematical modelling but I think this article shows its worth.  it makes for fascinating, if rather sobering, reading.

I saw it on Angus MacNeil MP's Twitter - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hell-...185019616.html

----------


## aqua

Thanks for the link. 

That guy’s prediction for the US death toll on 7 April was uncannily accurate! Probably because he used real data rather than putting in so-called reasonable assumptions that turned out to be very wrong, which is what many government advisors did, as far as I can tell.

Did you see this article in The Guardian a few days ago?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...study-predicts

The UK government advisor from Imperial College claims (at least some of) the recent input data is wrong. Perhaps, but I don’t trust his judgement after his initial errors. Hopefully, the real numbers will be closer to the lowest estimate of the American team. We’ll find out soon enough.

----------


## Corky Smeek

Jeez, that makes depressing reading.

The three reasons given for the projected high level of death are a shocking indictment of HMGs level of unpreparedness. That is particularly so in the light of Exercise Cygnus in 2016 which was designed to help us prepare for an event such as this. It seems that the results of that exercise were "buried" by HMG. John Pilger's piece in the Daily Telegraph is worth reading if you can face yet more bleak news.

It would appear that the results from Exercise Cygnus were so catastrophically frightening that HMG suppressed the report for fear of causing alarm.  That might be fair enough (arguably) but the failure to act properly upon the outcome of that exercise will, undoubtedly, have caused people their lives.  Pilger calls what has (not) happened a crime. However, since the finding of Exercise Cygnus are still classified I doubt we will ever see anyone held responsible.

----------


## aqua

Depressing indeed. As is the Telegraph piece.

I still believe that the principal cause of the delay in imposing the lockdown was the complete lack of understanding of the dire consequences of exponential growth at all levels of government, which is what orkneycadian has been stressing from the beginning. Incredible as it sounds, it also seems that the bigwig in the Imperial team didnt understand until it was too late. As someone said recently, a linear response to exponential growth will always lose. We needed to kill off the exponential growth early on, which we failed to do. Hopefully, the lockdown will eventually succeed in killing it off.  We will know in a week or two. I hope!

----------


## aqua

Oh, and those that did understand the consequences of exponential growth apparently underestimated the size of the exponent. Given the data we already had from China, and also early data from Italy, this was unforgivable in my opinion.

----------


## Gronnuck

> The three reasons given for the projected high level of death are a shocking indictment of HMGs level of unpreparedness. That is particularly so in the light of Exercise Cygnus in 2016 which was designed to help us prepare for an event such as this. It seems that the results of that exercise were "buried" by HMG. John Pilger's piece in the Daily Telegraph is worth reading if you can face yet more bleak news.
> 
> It would appear that the results from Exercise Cygnus were so catastrophically frightening that HMG suppressed the report for fear of causing alarm.  That might be fair enough (arguably) but the failure to act properly upon the outcome of that exercise will, undoubtedly, have caused people their lives.  Pilger calls what has (not) happened a crime. However, since the finding of Exercise Cygnus are still classified I doubt we will ever see anyone held responsible.


John Pilger has always been at the forefront of investigative journalism, he gets better with age; that's why his revelations are almost toxic to our MSM which is, in the main. the propaganda arm of the tory government.  I doubt this government will ever reveal the true extent of the damage revealed by Exercise Cygnus.

----------


## jimbews

> Depressing indeed. As is the Telegraph piece.
> 
> I still believe that the principal cause of the delay in imposing the lockdown was the complete lack of understanding of the dire consequences of exponential growth at all levels of government, which is what orkneycadian has been stressing from the beginning. Incredible as it sounds, it also seems that the bigwig in the Imperial team didnt understand until it was too late. As someone said recently, a linear response to exponential growth will always lose. We needed to kill off the exponential growth early on, which we failed to do. Hopefully, the lockdown will eventually succeed in killing it off.  We will know in a week or two. I hope!


Seems like Imperial has a great set of experts:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52240140

----------


## aqua

> John Pilger has always been at the forefront of investigative journalism, he gets better with age; that's why his revelations are almost toxic to our MSM which is, in the main. the propaganda arm of the tory government.  I doubt this government will ever reveal the true extent of the damage revealed by Exercise Cygnus.


I forgot to mention in my previous post that the article in the Telegraph is credited to Paul Nuki and Bill Gardner.  Corky, is there also an article by John Pilger?

----------


## Corky Smeek

> I forgot to mention in my previous post that the article in the Telegraph is credited to Paul Nuki and Bill Gardner.  Corky, is there also an article by John Pilger?


I did read an article by him but for the life of me I can't find it now. I also watched his interview with RT and he covers the same issues. You can view it here. It makes for pretty depressing viewing.

----------


## aqua

Its amazing how different people are affected by the virus in such different ways. Kenny Dalglish tested positive after being admitted to hospital for treatment of gallstones. Hes been released as he showed no symptoms.

----------


## Corky Smeek

> It’s amazing how different people are affected by the virus in such different ways. Kenny Dalglish tested positive after being admitted to hospital for treatment of gallstones. He’s been released as he showed no symptoms.


That's what's so scary about it. Stay home and stay safe everyone.

----------


## Corky Smeek

If you can bear any more bleak news have a look here. 

It's a table showing the worldwide death rates by country.  The stat's only cover up to 9 April but already the UK has the 3rd worst percentage death rate.  There are a lot of "ifs", "ands" and "buts" about the stats but whichever way you look at them they make for yet more depressing reading.

----------


## richardj

Just thought I would share this video / documentary link https://www.ntd.com/coronavirusfilm.html just in case anyone is interested in the alt theory of the origins of the covid-19 pandemic. In this hour long video is the proposal that the virus was created deliberately, and no it is not a crap pot idea, there is a lot of what appears valid evidence presented to support the theory. Whether it is true or not is definitely a valid question, I suspect it is true.

----------


## Fulmar

It started in a wet meat market in Wuhan having jumped species from wild life- as did SARS.

----------


## Corky Smeek

Draw your own conclusions.

----------


## Fulmar

Perhaps it is because the Scottish Government is adamant that there is not a shortage of PPE supplies in Scotland and that they have got the issue covered?

----------


## Corky Smeek

> Perhaps it is because the Scottish Government is adamant that there is not a shortage of PPE supplies in Scotland and that they have got the issue covered?


Or, it could be, as today's National front page headline says, "UK Gov't Told PPE Firms to Prioritise England".

----------


## Goodfellers

The article says 'he SUSPECTS the order came from PHE.....headlines can be very misleading, as you have said before Don't trust the media....any media, they all have their own agenda.

I have just been on Gompels website. They are only taking orders from established customers, not accepting any new customers. Also recent reviews from Welsh customers, which doesn't tie in with the newspaper article.

----------


## Bill Fernie

Check out John Pilger at http://johnpilger.com/

Film on NHS released.

----------


## Goodfellers

I for one, would be willing to pay an extra 2p tax IF it was ring fenced for the NHS. I remember paying over 30% tax so still nowhere near that level.

----------


## Corky Smeek

> The article says 'he SUSPECTS the order came from PHE.....headlines can be very misleading, as you have said before Don't trust the media....any media, they all have their own agenda.
> 
> I have just been on Gompels website. They are only taking orders from established customers, not accepting any new customers. Also recent reviews from Welsh customers, which doesn't tie in with the newspaper article.



Nation.Cymru The Times The Press & Journal The Daily Record

I don't know much about the first publication but the others are all pretty anti-SG and are very unlikely to publish something like this unless there was some truth in it.

----------


## Goodfellers

You have taught me to never trust the MSM....does that still stand?   :-) 

Btw, I don't agree with any country prioritising itself. We are all supposed to be in this together. I'm sure the SG have their own suppliers and arrangements.

----------


## Fulmar

From BBC Scotland website:
*Claims that manufacturers of personal protective equipment (PPE) have been prioritising workers in England have been dismissed by the Scottish government's clinical director.*
Prof Jason Leitch said suggestions that PPE supplies were being given to NHS and social care staff in England ahead of those in Scotland were "rubbish".

----------


## Corky Smeek

@ Goodfellers & Fulmar.  OK, I shall wait and see how the story develops and If I have to back down I will.

@ Goodfellers. If I have "taught" you anything then I am deeply touched and, therefore, hopeful that you are not a lost cause, after all. Maybe one day you will even come and join us over here. You will be made very welcome.

----------


## Fulmar

I think it is to do with private suppliers and the Scottish govt are investigating further.

----------


## Corky Smeek

The Gompels website still has the "England only" message on it. You can find it here.

Just in case it "disappears" here is a screen grab of the relevant section of the page in question.

----------


## Goodfellers

If any company has been told by the UK government to prioritise England, why not just put the letter on your website? You think the newspapers/Scottish government would have demanded proof before publishing. Sounds reasonable to me.

----------


## Fulmar

It didn't come from the UK government anyway and the Scottish government are now satisfied over that but want the rules to be made clear to those firms and quite right too.

----------


## Goodfellers

Public Health England were blamed in the earlier post. PHE are a UK govt body https://www.gov.uk/government/organi...health-england

----------


## Fulmar

But they say they did not ever issue such an order so I don't know. The 4 governments have been working together over this and that has been a good thing so hope nothing puts that in jeopardy.

----------


## Shabbychic

This was issued on 10th April by the Department of Health and Social care.

This was a 25 page document, the extract below is para 1.38 on page 17.

"We recognise that the social care sector operates differently to the NHS, and we
need to take different steps to ensure that providers can continue to access PPE.
23 million items of PPE have been released to designated wholesalers for onward
sale to social care providers. We have made arrangements with seven
wholesalers to supply PPE to the social care sector. Careshop, Blueleaf,
Delivernet, Countrywide Healthcare, Nexon Group, Wightman and Parrish and
Gompels will all provide supplies to care providers *registered with the Care Quality
Commission*"

*Care Quality Commission*....... The Independent regulator of health and social care in England.health and social care in England

----------


## Fulmar

Ok, that looks like an oversight to me and one that wil, I would imagine, be rectified asap. There have been so many mistakes (polite word for it) already, that's for sure.

----------


## Corky Smeek

Well, this story is not going away.  The National from earlier this morning.

Also, Donald Macaskill the Head of Scottish Care has reaffirmed his original claim. 

That charade of a news briefing yesterday did nothing to quell my fears. In fact, the question on PPE looked so stage managed I became even more convinced they were trying to hide something.

Oh, and Gompels website message has changed but not by much.

----------


## Goodfellers

Reading all of the above, it seems PHE and CQC only act on behalf of England, so their statements are reasonable in the context of England. 

Jeanne Freeman made it clear yesterday that  she makes her own arrangements for PPE, not through the UK government (words to that effect). 

My question is who have the Scottish govt contracted to supply PPE? If it is any of the companies mentioned, Surely Scotland would be treated as completely separate from England, therefore the CQC registration would not matter as Scotland has Health Protection Scotland and Care Inspectorate to decide how PPE is managed. Could this story be that the supplying companies did not understand that both countries have different systems and that maybe the Scottish government failed to mention it too?

----------


## Corky Smeek

> Reading all of the above, it seems PHE and CQC only act on behalf of England, so their statements are reasonable in the context of England. 
> 
> Jeanne Freeman made it clear yesterday that  she makes her own arrangements for PPE, not through the UK government (words to that effect). 
> 
> My question is who have the Scottish govt contracted to supply PPE? If it is any of the companies mentioned, Surely Scotland would be treated as completely separate from England, therefore the CQC registration would not matter as Scotland has Health Protection Scotland and Care Inspectorate to decide how PPE is managed. Could this story be that the supplying companies did not understand that both countries have different systems and that maybe the Scottish government failed to mention it too?


I agree with some of this but have to take issue with other bits.

Gompels still say that to be able to order from them you must be CQC registered. That instantly knocks out all non-English care homes. If you are not in England and CQC registered you cannot buy from Gompels.

Also, I just don't find it credible that PPE suppliers did not know how that the NHS and Care Sectors are devolved and therefore have different systems. It's their business after all. The notion that they did not know something so fundamental isn't really credible in my view.

Clearly the implications of these allegations are profound on many levels. HMG know this and will be doing their utmost to minimise the damage.

----------


## Goodfellers

My view is that it is a misunderstanding somewhere , rather than an attemp to thwart Scoland getting PPE.

If Gompels supply care homes in France, they may have been instructed by the French govt to only supply  registered care homes. I think this is probably what's happened. The CQC are only telling Gompels to supply registered care homes (in England), NOT to exclude every other country from obtaining supplies.

Or maybe I'm just naive ….  :Frown:

----------


## Fulmar

I have to say, I agree with Goodfellers on this. I think it is incompetence. Thankfully it seems that Scotland does have the PPE but needs to ensure ongoing supply, evidently, so the sooner it is sorted the better.

----------


## Corky Smeek

I have always believed that when faced with a choice between cock-up or conspiracy in 99.9% of cases you should go with cock-up.  For the moment, at least, I am prepared not to get too hot under the collar about this as there are many other issues demanding the attention of our politicians.  I will be interested to see how the story develops. However,

@ Goodfellers. Even after all the fuss about this the Gompels website is still saying that:-

*"...As such this product has a number of restrictions on who can purchase it:*

_You must be CQC registered and operating in England..."

_That seems very clear and unequivocal to me.The issue that still concerns me greatly is why would a business willingly abandon a substantial proportion of its customer base? I cannot think of any reason for this unless it was instructed to do so by government.  If you can think of a plausible explanation I'd love to hear it.

----------


## Corky Smeek

The latest statement from Gompels:-

_Each day we distribute millions of items of PPE to care settings in Scotland, Wales and England. Our committed team have been working incredibly hard to make sure that everyone who has been a regular customer of Gompels can continue to access the stocks that we can buy in these difficult times._

_Stocks of PPE are at a record low in the UK and coronavirus has created massive demand for products that would not normally be widely used in a care setting. This has meant that the usual supply channels are unable to fulfil the requirements. Pandemic flu stocks have been released under the Department of Health & Social Care Covid-19: Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) Plan._

_These pandemic English pandemic flu stocks are mandated for supply to CQC registered settings operating in England. Currently there are only 3 products from over 2000 that this relates to. We continue to supply on a daily basis our full range (less these 3 products from Public Health England) to Care providers in Wales and Scotland.

_The 3 products referred to are:- coronavirus protective masks, gloves and aprons.  These are three vital PPE products and Gompels admits that "stocks of PPE are at a record low". Despite this Gompels states it cannot sell these items to customers in Wales and Scotland.

The stench from this is getting stronger.  I cannot begin to imagine the outcry if this were happening in reverse. The MSM would be all over it like a rash.  I'm becoming to think this may be the 0.1% where conspiracy is the answer.

----------


## Corky Smeek

And so it goes on:- https://twitter.com/BlueleafCare/sta...88508423180289

Better Together. All in this together. Pooling and Sharing. Except when it's a matter of life and death in which case all you Celts can get to the back of the queue.

----------


## Fulmar

Yes, but Scotland is getting the PPE from elsewhere and the Scottish Government don't seem to be that concerned now?

----------


## Fulmar

Also, (and in the context that we all need some better news), I think it is brilliant that the drugs that may help are even now being trialled in Edinburgh. I hope and pray that some of these really will be found to help and to save lives. 
It is stated this morning that 9 out of 10 of those who succumb have underlying health conditions, some more than one thing and also, men are twice as likely to die. There are so many aspects of this that need researching- why are men more likely to die?

----------


## Goodfellers

> And so it goes on:- https://twitter.com/BlueleafCare/sta...88508423180289
> 
> Better Together. All in this together. Pooling and Sharing. Except when it's a matter of life and death in which case all you Celts can get to the back of the queue.


Just read the tweet "








[COLOR=rgba(20, 23, 26, 1)]*Blueleaf*
[COLOR=rgba(20, 23, 26, 1)][/COLOR]

[COLOR=rgba(101, 119, 134, 1)]@BlueleafCare[/COLOR]



[COLOR=rgba(101, 119, 134, 1)]·[/COLOR]
21 Mar
[COLOR=rgba(101, 119, 134, 1)]


[/COLOR]





[COLOR=rgba(20, 23, 26, 1)]Stocks of fluid-repellent surgical face masks have been released from the Public Health England pandemic influenza stockpile for Care Providers in England only."

This is a public health England stockpile. Why would PHE release their stockpile to Scottish providers when Jeanne Freeman made it clear that PHE do not buy or distribute on behalf of Scotland. Scotland has it's own suppliers and distribution system. 

It looks like some people in Scotland want to make problems where  they don't exist.
[/COLOR]


[/COLOR]

----------


## Goodfellers

Copying the tweet seems to have messed up my settings, but you can just about make sense of it.

----------


## Corky Smeek

> Yes, but Scotland is getting the PPE from elsewhere and the Scottish Government don't seem to be that concerned now?


I'm not so sure that is true. Jeanne Freeman said this yesterday:- 

"*We are responding to legitimate concerns by a responsible organisation representing majority of care homes in Scotland."*_.

_This issue has not fully played out yet.

----------


## Goodfellers

This story in the P & J is more upsetting. Able to drive 700 miles risking emergency services lives, just because he is wealthy and doesn't accept the law applies to him. He should have a chat with Catherine Calderwood........................

A north community has reacted with anger after a Russian holiday home owner arrived with his family to stay for two weeks.Highland communities have been striving to keep holiday home owners and tourists away to avoid them spreading coronavirus to areas already struggling for medical resources.Entrepreneur Nikolay Gurianov, founder of Kent-based artificial intelligence company Braintree, says he has a very good personal reason for moving his family to the house near Helmsdale, and he has shared this with police.The police say they visited his property on Monday and advice was offered to the residents regarding the importance of following the current guidelines relating to social distancing.Mr Gurianov said: We do understand lockdown and we definitely have a reason to be here.It is not for a holiday.We did not want to upset the local community, and are not connecting with them as we have brought everything necessary with us for the first two weeks.

We are quite remote with no neighbours, but anyone who wants to speak to me about it is welcome to come and talk, staying 2m distant of course.Mr Gurianov added that he felt singled out for criticism.There are plenty of other holiday home owners here, he said.Furious local councillor Deirdre Mackay said it was unacceptable in a ward where people have been very respectful and mindful of government advice.​She said: On my daily walk I see the rainbows put up by little children who are confined to their houses.We have relatives in our care homes who are quarantined to their rooms.Were seeing our front line workers setting off every morning to do their best to keep us safe.Respect for the guidelines is paramount despite the discomfort its causing people.So when they see others moving in, demonstrating a flagrant abuse of the regulations, its naturally upsetting.The rules do not seem to be applied fairly across the piece.Local MP Jamie Stone said he took a dim view of rich people endangering the life of his constituents, who were all observing lock-down rules.He said: Any movement that might risk spreading the virus is most unwelcome.I intend to find out how this happened and make sure they totally self-isolate for the maximum recommended period.

----------


## pat

One rule for the rich.

How on earth did they manage to drive?? that far - Central Scotland they are stopping many vehicles travelling, and  asking if they are from one household in car and why they are travelling ad not letting up until they get a proper clear reason.

----------


## Goodfellers

> One rule for the rich.
> 
> How on earth did they manage to drive?? that far - Central Scotland they are stopping many vehicles travelling, and  asking if they are from one household in car and why they are travelling ad not letting up until they get a proper clear reason.


Probably had his private jet fly him to Inverness, then the Bentley the rest of the way

----------


## Corky Smeek

> This story in the P & J is more upsetting.


It really isn't you know!  The P & J story is about potential harm. The PPE story is about actual harm happening in Scottish and Welsh communities right now.

----------


## Goodfellers

> It really isn't you know!  The P & J story is about potential harm. The PPE story is about actual harm happening in Scottish and Welsh communities right now.


Maybe you should be diverting your anger at Health Protection Scotland and ask them why they were not better prepared, as they had as much warning as anyone else this was coming.

It seems that every country has acted in its own interest, only today it emerged that France and Germany placed restrictions on exports of PPE...even trying to 'hi-jack' several million pieces destined for the UK! 

Every country will learn from this pandemic. I don't think trying to 'political point score' will achieve anything. The Scottish government don't seem as concerned as you, nor any of the major news outlets.

BBC News 'Live' this morning ……  10:20EU offers grieving Italy'heartfelt apology'The president of theEuropean Commission has offered a "heartfelt apology" for lettingItaly down at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic."Yes it is true thatno one was really ready for this," Ursula von der Leyen told the EuropeanParliament on Thursday morning. "It is also true that too many were notthere on time when Italy needed a helping hand at the very beginning. And yesfor that, it is right that Europe as a whole offers a heartfelt apology."More than 21,000 peoplewith the virus have died in Italy, according to Johns Hopkins University - thehighest death toll in Europe.As Italy struggled tocontain the outbreak in early March, both France and Germany placedrestrictions on the export of face masks - despite warnings from the EUCommission that such actions could undermine the collective response to thevirus.

----------


## Corky Smeek

> Maybe you should be diverting your anger at Health Protection Scotland


Or, how about directing some anger towards whoever authorised this:- https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/w...y-test-uk.html

----------


## Goodfellers

> Or, how about directing some anger towards whoever authorised this:- https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/w...y-test-uk.html


I think that's called a diversionary tactic.

Ps Article is behind a pay wall. I tend to copy and paste when this is the case. Not all of us are wealthy enough to subscribe to every online newspaper!

Edit: Just had a quick 'google' and it seems lots of countries purchased these test kits and are unhappy with the results. If the MSM is to be believed, these kits were approved by the EU health chiefs!!!    It seems your damned if you try and do something and dammed if you don't. Who would want to be in government.

----------


## Corky Smeek

> I think that's called a diversionary tactic.


That is HMG's entire raison d'être at the moment.  If as much effort had been put into preparing, planning and executing a coherent policy on Covid19 as is now being put into diverting attention away from the huge and ever-increasing list of almighty cock-ups we might not be in this catastrophic position.  I refer you once more to this timeline of inaction, missed opportunity, misplaced arrogance and general incompetence on the part of HMG.  https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...302012418.html

Time Magazine have had a long, hard look HMG's response - https://time.com/5823382/britain-cor.../?xid=tcoshare

The simple fact is that HMG has demonstrated its quite breathtaking incompetence over this matter and is now trying to hide from the fact that it has caused many, many more deaths as a result.  Even now allegations are circulating widely that doctors are being discouraged from putting coronavirus as the cause (even as a contributory cause) of death where patients had other underlying health issues.  And, of course there are the attempts to disguise the true number of deaths in England by not including those who have died in care homes.  Oh, and don't forget the alleged attempts to put the English care system at the head of the queue for PPE. 

It is all utterly scandalous and to make matters worse we are having to rely on foreign newspapers and social media to tell us the facts that HMG wants to hide.  We certainly can't rely upon the UK MSM who are utterly complicit in these diversionary tactics. Rather than do some proper investigative journalism they ignore the realities and feed us a diet of manufactured patriotic nonsense designed to divert our thoughts and "keep our spirits up" when all we really need is the truth.

----------


## Fulmar

Personally, I think that there will come a time in the future for forensic analysis and criticism of all that has undoubtedly gone wrong, whether in terms of what has been done or not done or not been done quickly enough or whatever. But the middle of the crisis is not the time to be doing it and that is why I applaud what Nicola Sturgeon said on the Today programme yesterday morning and posted about on the Politics section. I agree with you Goodfellers when you said that few if any countries anywhere in the world are going to come out of this particularly well and without criticism, even South Korea and certainly not China.
For me also, well lets make sure that we never ever rely on other countries again for the import of stuff like PPE gowns which are now running short and orders not coming in as they should be. Plus some imported stuff has been found to be sub standard. Also, from my source on the front line, stuff is being filched within hospitals- don't know how widespread that problem is but it is and has happened.

----------


## Corky Smeek

> But the middle of the crisis is not the time to be doing it


Governments and other bodies with things to hide always support this view. It buys time and allows them the opportunity to bury stuff even deeper.  Then, when the crisis is over, the promised "forensic analysis" of what went wrong is dismissed as ancient history. No point in raking up the past; let's move on; what's important now is the future; let's get the economy back on track, etc, etc.

Now is the time.

----------


## Fulmar

I disagree. I would far rather at the moment to question, question and question again and scrutinise what is to come so that whatever plan is formulated to come out of this mess is the best and most informed that it can be, has the widest possible agreement and has some chance of success. I do realise that it is a continuum though, obviously, but I see little point at present in endless wranglings about things that are definitely past and cannot be changed.

----------


## Corky Smeek

> ...but I see little point at present in endless wranglings about things that are definitely past and cannot be changed.


And that is the main excuse that will be used to kick the whole issue into the long grass.  Any enquiry that does take place will be a PR stunt.

Maybe I have just lived too long and become a cynical old git but I have seen this sort of situation too many times to have any faith in a post-catastrophe enquiry; especially one set up to examine state incompetence.

----------


## Fulmar

But I would say we have never before been in a pandemic before and I do believe that there is more chance- but then perhaps too optimistic. I would rather attempt to have some optimism on all levels though as things are so bad as it is.

----------


## Corky Smeek

It is generally recognised that HMG's response to the pandemic has been, shall we say, sub-optimal. I suspect that the reasons for this are many and varied but have involved decision making at the highest levels in both Westminster and Whitehall.  For that reason it doesn't matter when, or indeed if, an enquiry is ever held, the people responsible will escape public censure. Anything else would embarrass the State to such an extent that it could not be tolerated. Look forward to those responsible, in about 9-18 months, resigning from their current posts having suddenly discovered that they wish to spend more time with their families and/or asserting that a seat in the HoL is a great honour from where they can still serve their country.  In the meantime a few, far less guilty, middle ranking people will be thrown to the wolves to satisfy the blood lust of the press.

----------


## Fulmar

I am just posting this. I hope it means something:
''Senior UK minister Michael Gove has conceded that the government made mistakes in its handling of the coronavirus.
He told the BBC's Andrew Marr: "All governments make mistakes, including our own. We seek to learn and to improve every day.
"It is the case, I'm sure, at some point in the future, that there will be an opportunity for us to look back, to reflect and to learn some profound lessons."
His comments come following accusations that the UK government was slow to act in preparing for the health crisis''.

----------


## Corky Smeek

> I am just posting this. I hope it means something:
> ''Senior UK minister Michael Gove has conceded that the government made mistakes in its handling of the coronavirus.
> He told the BBC's Andrew Marr: "All governments make mistakes, including our own. We seek to learn and to improve every day.
> "It is the case, I'm sure, at some point in the future, that there will be an opportunity for us to look back, to reflect and to learn some profound lessons."
> His comments come following accusations that the UK government was slow to act in preparing for the health crisis''.


I have to admire your optimism and faith in the promises of politicians. I'm afraid I don't share it. They all say stuff like this when they know they have to. Then, with the passage of time and when the raw emotions of the event have subsided somewhat, the message will change subtly and become one where the agenda is focussed on moving forward and not dwelling on past mistakes.  The opportunity to learn will be squandered as the various apparatuses of party and state seek to avoid blame being placed at their door. 

I sincerely hope I am wrong but past experience does not fill me with much optimism that this time will be any different.

----------


## Shabbychic

> I am just posting this. I hope it means something:
> ''Senior UK minister Michael Gove has conceded that the government made mistakes in its handling of the coronavirus.
> He told the BBC's Andrew Marr: "All governments make mistakes, including our own. We seek to learn and to improve every day.
> "It is the case, I'm sure, at some point in the future, that there will be an opportunity for us to look back, to reflect and to learn some profound lessons."
> His comments come following accusations that the UK government was slow to act in preparing for the health crisis''.


Don't think he did this out of guilt, or wishing to tell the truth for once, but because he didn't have much choice after that damning report in The Times today.

----------


## Corky Smeek

Link to the article in today's Sunday Times for those who have not read it:- https://archive.is/20200418182037/ht...ster-hq3b9tlgh

----------


## Corky Smeek

@Goodfellers. You have asked a couple of times why HMG is getting all the blame during the current crisis despite health being a devolved issue.  I came across it whilst reading your least favourite blogger's Twitter feed.  It's a brief analysis of the politics of Covid19.

It is pretty neutral in content - no political point scoring. I promise.

https://www.scer.scot/database/ident-12735

----------


## Goodfellers

> @Goodfellers. You have asked a couple of times why HMG is getting all the blame during the current crisis despite health being a devolved issue.  I came across it whilst reading your least favourite blogger's Twitter feed.  It's a brief analysis of the politics of Covid19.
> 
> It is pretty neutral in content - no political point scoring. I promise.
> 
> https://www.scer.scot/database/ident-12735


Good to see the report saying that Scotlands government should shoulder some of the criticism . I am still not ready to 'blame' anyone.

 If a similar situation happens again in my lifetime, then I will be ready to blame whoever, as governments now have some idea of what a pandemic involves and more importantly, how the public will behave. The public don't want liberty restricted any longer than it has to be, so lock us up too early and people start to ignore the advice, leave it too late and many more get infected. Difficult job to get right.

Paper exercises are all well and good, but until 'it' actually happens, you have no real idea of how things will play out. As I said earlier all the experts will crawl out of the woodwork and with the benefit of hindsight tell everyone where they went wrong. Everyone can be an expert after the event.

----------


## Fulmar

I think that the future analysis and enquiry needs to be in all ways constructive to prevent the same mistakes being repeated. One thing early on struck me about what one of the experts said re stocking up with ventilators and whether that should have been done sooner and that was, had they done that, these would have been sitting about in store rooms unused and not needed having cost a lot to buy. I think that one of the problems is that any government machine is basically too clunky and not nimble enough on its feet to respond quickly enough. Also, at the end of the day, they have said time and time again that they were being guided by scientific advice as hardly any of them were experts in pandemics or even medicine before this happened. Good on the small firms anyway who haven't waited for an official response from government but have gone ahead and made gowns to supply their local areas.

----------


## Shabbychic

> Good to see the report saying that Scotlands government should shoulder some of the criticism . I am still not ready to 'blame' anyone.
> 
>  If a similar situation happens again in my lifetime, then I will be ready to blame whoever, as governments now have some idea of what a pandemic involves and more importantly, how the public will behave. The public don't want liberty restricted any longer than it has to be, so lock us up too early and people start to ignore the advice, leave it too late and many more get infected. Difficult job to get right.
> 
> Paper exercises are all well and good, but until 'it' actually happens, you have no real idea of how things will play out. As I said earlier all the experts will crawl out of the woodwork and with the benefit of hindsight tell everyone where they went wrong. Everyone can be an expert after the event.


I don't 100% agree with  https://www.scer.scot/database/ident-12735  but that is another issue.


This is not the first time a pandemic has occurred. There is plenty documentation on the plague in 1665 and the Spanish Flu in 1918, so there is information on how a pandemic evolves and how the public will behave. These things haven't changed that much, except we should be wiser and better equipped nowadays. Have you read  *Daniel Defoe's A Journal of the Plague Year*, for example? Yes, it is fiction, and I am not a big fan of Mr Defoe, but he did put a bit of research into it, and in this instance it is very apt reading at this time.  There are also many books about the Spanish Flu, and how when people came out of quarantine too early, the second wave killed far more than the original outbreak.


What about Exercise Cygnus carried out in 2016? Why was this failure hushed up and recommendations ignored?


So please, don't make excuses for the Government's mishandling of this whole sorry mess.


Why, for example, are British companies sending vital supplies and equipment abroad when it is urgently needed here? I'll tell you why. Because when these companies offered these items to the UK Government, they were either ignored or turned down, because they weren't part of the "Crony Network".....and that in a nutshell is what this Government is all about.


I know you are a big Tory fan, but can you honestly say, hand on heart, that this lot in Government today, are anything like the Real Conservatives from the past? They may have the same title, but I think that is where the comparison ends, and it is maybe time Real Conservatives admitted this, and get shot of the lot of them.

----------


## Shabbychic

> One thing early on struck me about what one of the *experts?* said re stocking up with ventilators and whether that should have been done sooner and that was, had they done that, these would have been sitting about in store rooms unused and not needed having cost a lot to buy.


Isn't that what Trident does.......and what does *it* cost? I think I would rather have spare ventilators any day.

----------


## Fulmar

Absolutely agree about Trident.

----------


## Goodfellers

> Isn't that what Trident does.......and what does *it* cost? I think I would rather have spare ventilators any day.


I'm sure if you saw Russian marines landing on Thurso beach, you would wish we had Trident (assuming we no longer had it).

Trident is about the only thing keeping them at bay. It only takes a few rich Russians in London (or Helmsdale) to say they feel threatened and Putin will use that as an excuse to invade. Ask the citizens of Crimea.

I'm sure the government have planned (on paper) for this scenario. If we had no deterrent, the population would be screaming " you've planned for this, where are all our military and why did you get rid of our nuclear deterrent?"

----------


## Goodfellers

*So please, don't make excuses for the Government's mishandling of this whole sorry mess.
*
I'm not sure I've made excuses for any government. I'm playing the waiting game.

And you are right, I would rather have Mrs T over Mrs May or Boris any day.

----------


## Shabbychic

> I'm sure if you saw Russian marines landing on Thurso beach, you would wish we had Trident (assuming we no longer had it).
> 
> Trident is about the only thing keeping them at bay. It only takes a few rich Russians in London (or Helmsdale) to say they feel threatened and Putin will use that as an excuse to invade. Ask the citizens of Crimea.
> 
> I'm sure the government have planned (on paper) for this scenario. If we had no deterrent, the population would be screaming " you've planned for this, where are all our military and why did you get rid of our nuclear deterrent?"


So the Russians are planning on invading Thurso Beach? Personally, I think they would be better heading for Dunnet Beach, where they could maybe slip in unnoticed. Then they could head off to Wick for a wee fish supper.....and onward lads to the Berriedales. Then they can nip in for a wee cuppa Russian tea with their friends in Helmsdale, or perchance a wee Voddie.....and maybe even stay the night. (I think this pal has a big hoose)


Next morning, after a quick run round the garden to limber/sober up, and a full Scottish breakfast, Captain Vladimir (who actually spent the night in Portgower) said "right boys, where to today?"  "Let's invade the Irn Bru factory" they all cry.......so, after a quick round of golf in Golspie....


But, as you say....The government will have planned (on paper) for this scenario, and will be fully prepared.


Why on earth would Russia decide to invade Scotland? What have we ever done to them? Why haven't they invaded all the other countries in the world with no nuclear weapons? (unless they really are after oor Irn Bru) ::

----------


## Goodfellers

Might be a year or two off, but we have water in abundance.....You never know, some foreign power may want it! As you say, what else have we got that the world wants. I'm sure Corky listed water and wind in an earlier thread about what Scotland has an abundance of  :Smile: 

https://www.newsweek.com/2015/05/01/...er-324328.html

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/...will-be-fought

----------


## Neil Howie

Please could you move your political posts to a different thread?

----------


## Neil Howie

Back on 28 March 2020 I posted that there were 51 doctors who died of coronavirus in Italy.  Since then we have seen numbers increase in Italy, reaching 100 by 9 April 2020.

And if you think about it the number is pretty unusual as these are a group of people who look after their health.  They have the lowest mortality rate by profession.

So what is it about the coronavirus that is killing this group of professionals?

PPE certainly seems to be part of this and as far as I can tell this is because the PEE reduces the viral load at the point of contact with a patient.  It's possible that the amount of virus overwhelms the body.  Is this alone the reason? Is it possible that being exposed to multiple strains of virus causes this?  It's possible that there is a genetic susceptibility due to ethnic grounds but the evidence is not great Lancet

On 27 March 2020 the New York Times reported on an increase in heart attacks, and that a recent study in China stated:




> The study, led by Dr. Zhibing Lu at Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, found that 20 percent of patients hospitalized with Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, had some evidence of heart damage.
> Many were not known to have underlying heart disease. But they often had abnormal electrocardiograms, like the patient in Brooklyn, in addition to elevated troponin levels, which sometimes soared to levels seen in patients with heart attacks.


The figures reported by NBC state:



> From March 30 to April 5, 2019, there were an average of 69 calls a day for cardiac patients and 26 deaths, meaning 38 percent of the calls.
> For March 30 to April 5, 2020  the week ending Sunday  cardiac calls averaged 284 a day, with 200 deaths a day. Seventy-two percent of the calls ended in death.


So, reading a recent Swiss study :



> *Coronavirus attacks lining of blood vessels all over the body, Swiss study finds
> Researcher says virus enters defence line and causes circulation problems, which can lead to multiple organ failure*


I would suggest that there is a different line of attack for the virus, and maybe this is at fault?

----------


## The Horseman

I would not characterize ‘The Medical Profession’ smarter that the ‘average joe’!
Familiarity breeds contempt!
In North America, 60 Doctors held a Curling Bonspiel in March, and half are now down with the Virus! 
And Drs in Nursing Homes/Elder care are also being wiped out.
And now reported, there are at least 21 new ‘strains/mutations.
Its Gonna take a while to figure this out.

----------


## Shabbychic

> Please could you move your political posts to a different thread?


So, it's ok to talk about toilet rolls, cruise ships, horse racing, and various other things that have cropped up on this thread, including politics, but suddenly, you have decided, there will be no more politics? Well, I hate to tell you, but the situation regarding Coronavirus is very political, whether you like it or not, so why don't you just ignore that aspect of the thread, since it obviously upsets you, and carry on regardless with your insightful presentations?

----------


## The Horseman

> So, it's ok to talk about toilet rolls, cruise ships, horse racing, and various other things that have cropped up on this thread, including politics, but suddenly, you have decided, there will be no more politics? Well, I hate to tell you, but the situation regarding Coronavirus is very political, whether you like it or not, so why don't you just ignore that aspect of the thread, since it obviously upsets you, and carry on regardless with your insightful presentations?


You are correct....
I know from living in Canada, part of North America, New Zealand etc etc., the problems are all the same.
The Politics, the ‘Lack of everything’ Urgently needed, the death of Seniors/long term care homes...
We are all in the same boat! 
And now the different Strains/ Mutations of this Virus, is complicating issues to the limit if our imagination!
I suppose this is a ‘wake up’ call to The World.
Hopefully......We will be a changed people when we survive this.

----------


## Neil Howie

> So, it's ok to talk about toilet rolls, cruise ships, horse racing, and various other things that have cropped up on this thread, including politics, but suddenly, you have decided, there will be no more politics? Well, I hate to tell you, but the situation regarding Coronavirus is very political, whether you like it or not, so why don't you just ignore that aspect of the thread, since it obviously upsets you, and carry on regardless with your insightful presentations?


I followed the political points up to where it drifted off topic, with Russians invading Scrabster and the world water supply, hence my polite request.

----------


## Corky Smeek

Financial Times estimates current UK death toll to be 41,000.

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-...3-e239799fa6ab

----------


## The Horseman

> Financial Times estimates current UK death toll to be 41,000.
> 
> https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-...3-e239799fa6ab


There is no ‘World Wide’ standard for how to classify if a death is caused by The Virus.....so one gets ‘uneven stats’!

----------


## Shabbychic

> I followed the political points up to where it drifted off topic, with Russians invading Scrabster and the world water supply, hence my polite request.



Sorry about that, but I think you'll find most threads on most forums are prone to various tangential deviations now and again, before getting back on track, and I'm afraid that's what happened in this instance. Some of us don't take ourselves too seriously, nor believe our contribution on a forum can change the outcome of critical life events, although sometimes I find, too much information in certain areas, can actually scare people further.

----------


## Shabbychic

> There is no World Wide standard for how to classify if a death is caused by The Virus.....so one gets uneven stats!



I agree. I've heard several stories about family members being told their relative (usually elderly) died of the virus, but when questioned further, it is admitted they probably didn't. I don't know why this is happening, but it appears to be pretty common. Is it just laziness, or is there an ulterior motive behind it?

----------


## Alrock

Just watching the Downing Street breifing... Have I got this right...

If I'm an essential worker who needs a test & am entitled to one I would have to drive all the way down to Aberdeen to get one?

----------


## JohnDH22

> Just watching the Downing Street breifing... Have I got this right...
> 
> If I'm an essential worker who needs a test & am entitled to one I would have to drive all the way down to Aberdeen to get one?



From my reading, I think you have it spot on. Anything north of the Great Glen just doesnt exist.

----------


## Neil Howie

Corky, Shabbychic - I enjoy your banter and political posts so apologies for the David Cameron nudge' !

Alrock - you could wait for a postal one, but they seem to be oversubscribed, probably everyone will want one.

I will hang on and see if the antibody test is any good, previous tests didn't look great for false positive/negatives.

And even if I'd had it before there's a possibility I could get it again....

----------


## Shabbychic

> Shabbychic - I enjoy your banter and political posts so apologies for the David Cameron nudge' !



Oh my, a wannabe Mach? ::  Who's deviating now, m'lud? And I believe it's more a Dickie Thaler Nudge, but alas, the Russians were already long gone with their Irn Bru haul. :Wink:

----------


## Shabbychic

> Just watching the Downing Street breifing... Have I got this right...
> 
> If I'm an essential worker who needs a test & am entitled to one I would have to drive all the way down to Aberdeen to get one?



*This* has just come up on the Scottish Government website. It states, further down the page, that there are home test kits for those who can't get to a centre.

----------


## Neil Howie

More reports of covid-19 causing stroke and heart problems

https://www.boston.com/news/coronavi...vid-19-strokes




> On average the covid-19 stroke patients were 15 years younger than stroke patients without the virus.
> 
> “These are people among the least likely statistically to have a stroke,” Mocco said.
> 
> Mocco, who has spent his career studying stroke and how to treat it, said he was “completely shocked” by the analysis. He noted the link between covid-19 and stroke “is one of the clearest and most profound correlations I’ve come across.”
> 
> “This is much too powerful of a signal to be chance or happenstance,” Mocco said.

----------


## Neil Howie

But more positively:





> Frontline health workers at a UK hospital have become the first in the country to be widely kitted out with a *pioneering respirator hood* when treating Covid-19 patients.
> 
> 
> The PeRSo device consists of a fabric hood with a plastic visor to protect the face. It delivers clean air through a High Efficiency Particulate Air (Hepa) filter using a fan mounted on the wearer's belt.


https://www.standard.co.uk/news/heal...-a4421611.html

and filtering out 99.95% is better than the N95 mask only doing 95% I suppose

----------


## Neil Howie

For the earlier posts on the mortality rates you really need to have a look at this - 

*36,000 Missing Deaths:Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis*

from the New York Times




> But the total death numbers offer a more complete portrait of the pandemic, experts say, especially because most countries report only those Covid-19 deaths that occur in hospitals.
> 
> “Whatever number is reported on a given day is going to be a gross underestimate,” said Tim Riffe, a demographer at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany.

----------


## Fulmar

Maybe so but I personally know of two sad deaths in the last 3 weeks in which both people had very serious underlying health conditions, both with history of respiratory illness and pneumonia, one on oxygen for most of last year. He had been told he was at risk of dying before Covid struck. They were both in complete lock down and one had tested negative just before she passed. Covid 19 was 'mentioned' on the death certificates of both of them.

----------


## Neil Howie

I'm very sorry to read that,

----------


## Corky Smeek

Coronavirus tracking site - https://www.travellingtabby.com/scot...virus-tracker/

----------


## Neil Howie

As the Prime Minister has announced today we are past the peak, I will post some other good news.

From Gizmodo




> Some recovered covid-19 patients who again tested positive for the coronavirus likely weren’t reinfected after all. On Thursday, South Korean officials stated that there’s no evidence currently that the virus is reinfecting people in the country, and the test results that suggested reinfection were likely false positives finding dead virus particles.




If correct it's great news, and that the UK can roll on with antibody tests

----------


## Corky Smeek

Just a little something to raise a smile during these difficult times.

----------


## Corky Smeek

I came across a couple of videos from the U.S. in which doctors explain that what they are seeing in patients with Covid19 is not always what they would expect to see. They are mystified by this phenomenon and express doubts over current treatment protocols. All rather worrying!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bp5RMutCNoI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yrCjsaZKg8

----------


## Fulmar

I think it is interesting that Rowland Kao, epidemiology Prof at Edinburgh University thinks that there is an element of herd immunity now working in London where there has been a marked drop off in the number of new infections. In Scotland, which probably 'got' the virus later, the 'R' number is still thought to be too high and hasn't happened here yet.

----------


## Neil Howie

It's about time that a proper antibody test was rolled out.

Also if it' still not clear if people can be re-infected with coronavirus then find some volunteers and try it....?

----------


## Anfield

> It's about time that a proper antibody test was rolled out.
> 
> Also if it' still not clear if people can be re-infected with coronavirus then find some volunteers and try it....?


It's about time that a proper Government  was rolled out.

"Also if it' still not clear if people can be re-infected with coronavirus then find some volunteers and try it....?" 
Yes Bonkers Boris & Big Ears

----------


## Corky Smeek

For the half dozen or so who may not have seen Andrew Cotter's latest video featuring his dogs, Mabel and Olive, whilst they are all at home here is the link.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1259931151403290624

It's wonderful.

----------


## Fulmar

Halsary wind farm
Why has construction work on this site resumed, it seems, at full capacity when it has been stated again (only today) that people in Scotland are being told to stay at home and are not being told to return to work?

----------


## Oddquine

> Halsary wind farm
> Why has construction work on this site resumed, it seems, at full capacity when it has been stated again (only today) that people in Scotland are being told to stay at home and are not being told to return to work?


Because some businesses have been mithering for a relaxing of lockdown for ages, and are going with the timetable for England, regardless of the situation in  Scotland. Gotta  make a penny or two....or else no profits!

----------


## Fulmar

Yes, I thought that really but then others are complying with the rules so I don't know!

----------


## The Horseman

With respect to complaints about the handling of Covid19, all Govts in all Countries.........
No one will get an A Grade!

----------


## Corky Smeek

> With respect to complaints about the handling of Covid19, all Govts in all Countries.........
> No one will get an A Grade!


Agreed, but some will get a B or maybe even a B+. HMG would be lucky to get an F-.

----------


## The Horseman

I think we are nearly all the same.
The biggest prob I think, in North America, was that in the beginning people did not listen to the advice of Gov’t and stay at home.  Don’t travel!
Many were unable to get a refund on their travel, so they went and then we had the lockdown.
Then hundreds/thousands came back with no checks being done, other than receiving a piece of paper and advising them to Self Isolate. 70% of which ignored the advice.
I heard that thousands were mingling in airports, shoulder to shoulder, and getting their groceries and generally spreading anything they had!
Still now, people are arriving Home and receiving a piece of paper, perhaps more strongly worded, but on the honour system!
Here there were calls to not send planes to get others.
Politically, that ain’t gonna work!  Send the planes!!  Politics rule!  People need their jobs...even in Politics!

----------


## The Horseman

Someone mentioned that Covid19 was being blames for deaths. which may not have accurate..

Spoke to a person in California, and they state that The Virus Is being blamed for many more deaths than it should be!
Reason......Politics......
California is a mainly Democratic State, meaning that they want Prez Trump out...A Republican.  Thus, they skewer the facts to show that that The Prez didn’t do a good job, and show that he should not be re-elected!  Sad isn’t it!

And during the ‘Aids Epidemic‘, the very poor Countries were showing nearly all deaths as HIV., so that they would get more support/money!
It’s called..... ‘The Blame Game’.

----------


## Alrock

> Someone mentioned that Covid19 was being blames for deaths. which may not have accurate..
> 
> Spoke to a person in California, and they state that The Virus Is being blamed for many more deaths than it should be!
> Reason......Politics......
> California is a mainly Democratic State, meaning that they want Prez Trump out...A Republican.  Thus, they skewer the facts to show that that The Prez didnt do a good job, and show that he should not be re-elected!  Sad isnt it!
> 
> And during the Aids Epidemic, the very poor Countries were showing nearly all deaths as HIV., so that they would get more support/money!
> Its called..... The Blame Game.


I'm guessing that person is a Trumper... Don't believe a word that comes out of Trumps mouth, he's incapable of being honest...

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/polit...ck-orig-me.cnn

----------


## The Horseman

FYI.....
I see the article is by CNN.....which is a Democratic controlled and paid for ‘machine’, Cable News Network!
Trump is a Republican and the Democrats, using CNN., do not want him in Office.
The Russian Affair was a total lie and set up...something like a Movie!  It will all be shown soon.
Politics can be truly Brutal.  Watch FOX news.
I now see the BBC is re printing rubbish by CNN!
I am surprised educated people watch CNN.  The Tabloids have stopped degrading Prez Trump, as what they wrote about him is mostly lies, and they cannot afford the payouts for ‘Fake News’!
I am on neither side.....but the lies that are told.  Atrocious! 
You have the same......’Over ‘Ome’!

----------


## Alrock

> FYI.....
> I see the article is by CNN.....which is a Democratic controlled and paid for machine, Cable News Network!
> Trump is a Republican and the Democrats, using CNN., do not want him in Office.
> The Russian Affair was a total lie and set up...something like a Movie!  It will all be shown soon.
> Politics can be truly Brutal.  Watch FOX news.
> I now see the BBC is re printing rubbish by CNN!
> I am surprised educated people watch CNN.  The Tabloids have stopped degrading Prez Trump, as what they wrote about him is mostly lies, and they cannot afford the payouts for Fake News!
> I am on neither side.....but the lies that are told.  Atrocious! 
> You have the same......Over Ome!


 ::  pffft

Doesn't matter who controls it, they just report the news as it happens, not their fault that Trump is constantly hanging himself with his speil of easily fact checked lies & evergrowing exagerations. All Trump cares about is Trump.

----------


## The Horseman

Many of the quotes are ‘Manufactured’ from his comments.
Recently they used the first part of a sentence only!  I think a few words.
CNN and the New York Times both admitted last week, they took ‘selected’ words of the Attorney General Bill Barr, and mixed them up to show a different outcome to a comment.  And don’t forget Prez Trump’s Mother came from The Isle of Lewis, and his father was German so he talks differently.
Don’t be so hard on him.  He is your ‘Kin’. 
It’s not a job for him....It’s a Calling! 
Be kinder...He is but a man, with a few good looking women!

----------


## Alrock

Misquoting happens all the time from both sides, can't be misquoted though when he's spouting bs at live press briefings.
Where his mother is from has no bearing on his personality & as for his father, even though he is quoted as saying his father is German (or was that another misquote), he was actually born in New York, it was his grandfather who was German.
You are right on the fact that it is not a job for him, he was "Chosen by God", besides at a time of crisis don't you want someone in charge who takes the job seriously as opposed to someone who is only interested in their own ego & self-interest.

----------


## The Horseman

Facebook..Dr Clarence Sexton...Trump was born for Revival!
Take a look...A convincing video..
I am not really Religious, BUT............
And one third of Americans feel Trump was chosen!
I would put it up on here, but I don’t know how, and if I did I would likely Get Lynched..  haha

----------


## Alrock

> ...And one third of Americans feel Trump was chosen!...


"one in four Americans thinks the sun orbits the Earth"

"34 percent of Americans reject evolution entirely and believe humans  have existed in their present form for thousands or tens of thousands of  years"

"75 percent of those surveyed could not identify Iran or Israel"

https://patch.com/us/across-america/...tually-believe

Just a few examples as to why just because a significant proportion of Americans believe something doesn't necessarily make it true

----------


## The Horseman

How childish!
Without the Yanks, the UK would be in a lot of trouble.
I am not an American supporter, but.......better to leave u with your...........ty.

----------


## orkneycadian

> "34 percent of Americans reject evolution entirely and believe humans  have existed in their present form for thousands or tens of thousands of  years"


It gets worse than that.  According to Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religi...United_Kingdom, 74.3% of UK inhabitants believe that humans were created by various versions of some bloke on a cloud, with various estimates of timescales, most of which typically centre around 6,000 years ago.  Whats more, the same percentage believe the story that everything was created in just 6 days, again about 6,000 years ago.  That the dinosaurs were roaming the earths surface for 125 million years, quite a while ago, seems to be lost on them.

----------


## Alrock

> How childish!
> Without the Yanks, the UK would be in a lot of trouble.
> I am not an American supporter, but.......better to leave u with your...........ty.


Just making an obsevation, plenty of idiots here to, how else do you explain Boris being in 10 Downing Street (or comment above).

Care to explain how the UK would be in a lot of trouble if it wasn't for the "Yanks" (quite an offensive term for a US citizen, dating back to the Civil War).

----------


## The Horseman

You wouldn’t be ‘Living your Dream’ since the 1940’s!
And Yank...pray tell me!

----------


## Alrock

> You wouldnt be Living your Dream since the 1940s!
> And Yank...pray tell me!


I assume that you are talking WWII, The war that they sat out, getting very rich from selling us arms until we where skint & only then joining in once they had gotten fat of our misery.

Question is... What would have happened if they had joined in from the start?


*Calling them Yanks*
The Y word wont offend every American you meet, but never use it to  address folks from the South. There, its likely to earn you a stern  look or a full-on snarl.

----------


## Fulmar

Is this still the coronavirus thread?

----------


## The Horseman

Sorry...My bad!

----------


## ecb

This COVID-19 Community Risk Monitor measures the level of risk exposure of Scotland’s 354 local authority wards to the COVID-19 virus and displays as the risks on a map:

https://www.scotianomics.org/covid19-risk-monitor/

----------


## orkneycadian

And to think, this is what we could have had;

----------


## aqua

> Agreed, but some will get a B or maybe even a B+. HMG would be lucky to get an F-.


I would give A grades to South Korea and New Zealand. And probably to a few others in the east.

----------


## ecb

The latest weekly data for Coronavirus in Scotland: Who is dying and where?:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52214177

----------


## Alrock

> The latest weekly data for Coronavirus in Scotland: Who is dying and where?:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52214177



Not very helpful for info on Caithness, all they give is info on NHS Highland which covers a very large area, would be like trying to figure out what is happening in London by looking at figures from Manchester...

Any links to more localised figures out there?

----------


## Neil Howie

> Not very helpful for info on Caithness, all they give is info on NHS Highland which covers a very large area, would be like trying to figure out what is happening in London by looking at figures from Manchester...
> 
> Any links to more localised figures out there?


I haven't seen any since Bill Fernie raised it here

*Call for local coronavirus numbers to be given*

----------


## orkneycadian

> *Call for local coronavirus numbers to be given*


Orkney;

Number of confirmed cases = 7 - NHS Orkney flatly deny that anyone else in Orkney has ever had it.  When Dr Drew went on Jeremy Vine to suggest there may be 200 - 300 cases in the community, this was rapidly shot down by NHS Orkney - https://www.orcadian.co.uk/nhs-orkne...d-case-claims/

Number of deaths "involving" coronavirus = 2 - Both allegedly in patients with significant underlying health conditions.

Number of NHS Orkney Chief Executives exposed for travelling home at the weekends to see his family on the Black Isle = 1 - https://www.orcadian.co.uk/governmen...hland-commute/

----------


## Alrock

> I haven't seen any since Bill Fernie raised it here
> 
> *Call for local coronavirus numbers to be given*





> NHS Highland says the number of confirmed cases are released on a Highland-wide basis due to "patient confidentiality".


What bs. We don't need names, addresses, phone numbers etc., just a number.

----------


## The Horseman

We are the same.
If its a Safe area people go there, if not they don’t......

----------


## orkneycadian

Following the publication of Scotland's route map for getting out of lockdown, why on earth are "places of worship" opening up before schools?  Here we are, in 2020, and educating people about a set of fictional beliefs, based on a 2000 year old novel is taking priority over educating kids about the real world things (assuming they can pay attention long enough, and tear themselves away from their social media).  We are told that things will be different after all this - Surely this is the time to put the religious cults to bed for once and for all?  They have been a big source of coronavirus outbreaks in places like Iran, and are most definitely in the non essential category.  But for reasons unknown, they are deemed more essential than schools by Auntie Nicola?  And professional sport?  Whats more essential about 22 or 23 grown adults chasing a bag of wind about a field that makes it more important than educating kids?

I think I can see why education standards in Scotland are slipping.  Greater emphasis being placed on religion and football than on education.

----------


## Corky Smeek

The list of people the the BritNat-in-chief despises grows ever longer.  Another two added today:-

Church goers
Football supporters

He already hates:

Trade Unionists
Separatists
Women
Anyone who lives south of Perth but north of the Tweed

He's not very keen on Diane Abbott either. I'm not sure whether that's misogyny or racism or both.

----------


## The Horseman

> The list of people the the BritNat-in-chief despises grows ever longer.  Another two added today:-
> 
> Church goers
> Football supporters
> 
> He already hates:
> 
> Trade Unionists
> Separatists
> ...


Misogyny..... Most people don't even know what it means!
I agree with the Orkney standards,   Well said.....
Did you know that Orkney-men founded the Famous Hudson Bay Company, and in the category of ‘The toughest Men in the World‘.
King Harald or was it Ragnar?  
Doesn't matter......am sure Ragnar didn't know about MISOGYNY.
It’s Friday nite and we are still alive!

----------


## orkneycadian

> Misogyny..... Most people don't even know what it means!


That Corky Smeek certainly doesn't.  Apparently, referring to the wannabe Queen of Scotland as Wee Krankie constitutes misogyny.  Could never understand why that denigrates every woman on the planet, but then again, this is coming from the mindset that thinks that 45% is a majority.

What I did spend a bit of time on yesterday was watching the back catalogue of Janey Godley coronavirus briefings.  As that mocks Nicola, that must be misogynistic too.  How that works when Janey herself is a woman is baffling, but my brain is too small to understand how misogyny can be found in places where none exists. 

What the Janey Godley videos does highlight is why on earth does Nicola always turn up in such ridiculous high heels to attend the briefings?  Couldn't she just ask Frank to have a box put behind the podium for her?

----------


## Corky Smeek

> Apparently, referring to the wannabe Queen of Scotland as Wee Krankie constitutes misogyny.


Nicola Sturgeon, Diane Abbott, Greta Thunberg have all been given the treatment by you. Are you sure you don't have a problem with high-achieving, powerful women?  Looks awfully like it to me.

I'm not even going to bother addressing the other issues you raise. They are just laughable and not worthy of a response.

----------


## aqua

Interesting article about Shetland on the BBC:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-52823510

----------


## Corky Smeek

> The list of people the the BritNat-in-chief despises grows ever longer.  Another two added today:-
> 
> Church goers
> Football supporters
> 
> He already hates:
> 
> Trade Unionists
> Separatists
> ...


I see from another thread that caravaners, motorhomers and cruise liner passengers have all been added to the list. I also forgot to add to my original list, NHS workers, whom he thinks provide us with a 3rd class service.

I wonder which group is next in line to be added to his list. There can't be many left, surely.

----------


## orkneycadian

So folks in Scotland are finally starting to cotton on that there's going to be more to coronavirus than a 3 month holiday on 80% pay;

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18...-20-000-names/

*Rolls-Royce petition on Scots job cuts hits 20,000 names*What are they expecting a petition is going to solve?  Where were they when they could have had a petition to close the UK (or even Scotland's) borders in January, or even 2019, or even earlier?  You wanted freedom of movement folks.  You got it.  That means freedom of movement of diseases.  You got that too.  Now you are complaining that you don't like the consequences?

----------


## ecb

Coronavirus: Death rates twice as high in deprived areas:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53079112

----------


## orkneycadian

The 2 graphics in the above link solely seem to focus on cities in the Southern Belt. With hardly any cases here in Caithness and Orkney, we are being disproportionately penalised here, economically, by Sourthern Belt policies. England, Wales and Northern Ireland are well on the way to trying to limit economic damage, but we in the North are being dictated unviable policies by Holyrood. As a result, it's areas like ours that are going to end up as economic graveyards, thanks to the Southern centric policies.

----------


## ecb

"Highland Council finances 'hit hardest' by Covid crisis

Covid-19 has cost Highland Council more per head of population than any other UK local authority, according to BBC research.

The cost of the infection to the council could run to £96.9m, the fourth worst in the UK.

But the estimated shortfall at the council is the equivalent of £411 for every resident - the highest UK figure.  ... .":

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...lands-53149054

----------


## Corky Smeek

An extract from "Wee Ginger Dug", Paul Kavanagh's blog - dated 26 June 2020. 

It concerns the fact that 331 Tory MPs voted against given NHS and Care Staff weekly Covid19 tests.  I was going to try to paraphrase what Paul said but he says it so succinctly it's easier just to quote him.

*".....what they’ve all got in common is that every single one of this sorry shower of British nationalist apologists voted against a motion in the Commons which would have ensured that all NHS workers and care staff received weekly tests for coronavirus. What they’ve got in common is that in 2017 every single one of them voted against a pay rise for nurses. And what they also have in common is that all of them repeat the platitudes about clapping for NHS workers because they’ll make a show of supporting key workers, but won’t follow through with anything that actually has any substance to it. Yeah, this doesn’t reflect well upon them either, but then they’re Tory MPs so what were you expecting. Being a git is very much on brand for this lot. They don’t care. They didn’t care. They never cared. This is what you get when you vote Tory."*

----------


## Fulmar

A very heart warming story on BBC Scotland page about the Scottish pilot who has survived Covid in South Vietnam and become something of a celebrity there at the same time, as a result. South Vietnam has done amazingly well with this virus.

----------


## orkneycadian

One of the hardest bits of data to find in all this carry on is the number of people, particularly in the UK, who have died due to coronavirus, and not just with coronavirus. 

My Dad died some years ago with a replacement hip.  That's not what was the finish of him, but it's totally true to say he died with a replacement hip. 

I have read a number of sources that say the number of people who have died in the UK due to coronavirus is around 2000, and the number under age 60 it's around 600.  

But it's very hard to find definitive data on this.  All some folk want to count is where coronavirus is mentioned on the death certificate.  I am sure the word Sex is mentioned on every death certificate, but is unlikely to be, a few cases excepted, the real cause of a persons demise.

Any reliable source links much appreciated.

----------


## Alrock

> ...But it's very hard to find definitive data on this...


Hmmm... I wonder why?




> ...Any reliable source links much appreciated.


I guess you looked & couldn't find one... Once again, I wonder why?

----------


## orkneycadian

> Hmmm... I wonder why?


Probably to help keep us on our toes with mental arithmetic. 

So, the present number of confirmed cases in the UK is 290,133 (source = worldometers)

Back in May, an Orkney doctor (Dr Drew) went on the Jeremy Vine show and stated that in his opinion, the number of symptomatic cases in Orkney was more likely 200 to 300 and not the 7 that was being recorded at the time. 

So,  let's see,  290,133 x (250 / 7) = 10,362,000 people in the UK who have exhibited symptoms,  whether diagnosed in a clinical setting, or self diagnosed at home. 

85% of people have no symptoms. That figure came out of China very early on, and had been affirmed by data from the Herefordshire farm where just a few of the 73 who tested positive had any symptoms. 

So, 10,362,000 / 0.15 = 69,079,000 of us have had it in some form or another. 

Now,  what's the official UK population? Ah yes, that's right, 67.9 million, though the supermarkets reckon it's closer to 80 or 90 million based on their data mining. 

So, that explains why cases are flattening off.  We have almost all had it.  85% of us didn't notice,  10,362,000 of us noticed, 290,133 of those that noticed had a clinical test, 40 odd thousand folk died of the usual kinds of things folk die of, but were posthumously found to have the virus in their system (just like the rest of us), about 2000 of those 40 odd thousand died solely of coronavirus, and about 600 of those 2000 were under 60 years of age. 

Nothing like a bit of mental arithmetic to keep things in perspective.

----------


## Corky Smeek

Well, you have to give it to Orkneycadian; his arithmetic is absolutely mental.

----------


## badger

When the rule about wearing masks in shops came in I wondered about the shop assistants and see that in England they are not required to wear them. Don't know what the rule is in Scotland as I haven't been shopping since it started. Check-out staff are behind screens so that's OK.  Customers don't have to wear them for long but if assistants had to wear them I can see this being a problem.  On the other hand does it make sense for them not to when they are around customers?  Or are they all regularly tested - somehow doubt it.

----------


## orkneycadian

One aspect my arithmetic struggles to deal with is that here were are, in the middle of an extremely deadly pandemic, with a virus so debilitating that 85% of people need to get tested to even know they have it.  

And then, the governments Office for National Statistics go and publish some data that shows that for the 3rd week running, the number of deaths, in this very very deadly pandemic is lower than the average for this time of year;

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...nglandandwales 

I am trying to work out a "deadliness index" for this virus, but I keep getting a negative number.  Can any mathematicians on 'e Org help me out please?

----------


## Fulmar

Plenty of people in the States have thought the same way as you do and sadly, look at them now. I watched an interview with one of them who had believed that the virus was fake news and just a hoax. He caught it, became rapidly severely ill, spent 2 weeks on a ventilator and is now, back home, struggling to get back to any semblance of health and with considerable post-viral disability. He was in his 40s. Have you seen the footage from Brazil with all the acres of new graves rapidly filling up?
In Caithness in the shops that I have been in at least, the store staff are now wearing masks.

----------


## richardj

Covid-19 is deadly, while the overall death rate per infected may be around 1-2% this is actually meaningless. For people who are older and have underlying health issues such as diabetes and high blood pressure the death rate is far higher. 

The other issue is that other long term health issues are now being reported worldwide for people who have been infected, even for people that have not been very ill with the disease. This includes damage to the brain, heart and lungs. Not trying to scare anyone however I would suggest that nobody should underestimate the health issues with this virus.

----------


## orkneycadian

Pretty much the point I was trying to make, richardj.

As you say, for older folk, diabetics and those with underlying health conditions, there is greater risk.  But an awful lot of emphasis is placed on the number of people who have died with coronavirus, and not those who have died of coronavirus. Remember, right back at the beginning of this, when reporting number of deaths, the media meticulously added "all had underlying health conditions".

Now we are seeing that, whilst for the last few months, total deaths was higher than the 5 year average for the time of year, for the last 3 weeks, total deaths is under that average. That alone is rather bizarre whilst we are in the middle of a deadly pandemic. What will be rather telling us to look at that figure over the whole of 2020.  Will we see the first 6 months being above the average followed by the last 6 months being as equally below the average? Only time will tell. 

My play on the mental arithmetic highlights what could actually be very possible.  Most recently, at the farm in Herefordshire, most of the 73 who tested positive felt absolutely fine, and were stunned to have returned a positive result.  How many more of us would have returned the same result had we been tested?

----------


## ecb

Deaths involvingcoronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland Week28 (06 to 12July2020) at:

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files/...rt-week-28.pdf


On page 26 "COVID-19 deaths at a small  area levelA breakdown  of deaths  involving  COVID  by intermediate  zone is available  in table  S8 of the additional  analysis spreadsheet.  Intermediate  zones are a statistical geography that sit between  datazones  and local authorities.   There are 1,279 intermediate  zones covering  the whole of Scotland and  their populations  ranges between  2,500  and 6,000."

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files/...s-week-28.xlsx

Table S8    Numbers and crude rates of deaths involving COVID-19, by Intermediate Zone,  between 1st March 2020 and 30th June 2020

Figures relating to Caithness extracted and put on following graphic:

----------


## orkneycadian

They can't seem to be able to allow themselves to say "Deaths caused by Coronavirus" can they?  Always had to be "Deaths Involving Coronavirus" or "Where Covid was mentioned in the death certificate"

----------


## orkneycadian

So yesterday was a day of rather interesting revelations.

We had Matt Hancock saying that the way that deaths are counted "involving" coronavirus requires a major shake up.  This on the BBC Radio 2 news around lunchtime.  Hypothetical examples were given of someone who tested positive for Coronavirus in February, who was run over and killed by a bus in July would be counted as a coronavirus death.

Then we had Ian Duncan Smith on the Jeremy Vine show stating that survey data shows that just 4% of people who die "with coronavirus", die "of coronavirus".  The other 96% had, in his words, "co-mortalities"

So where does that sit with the earlier estimations in "mental arithmetic"?

Well, if there have been 45,223 UK deaths (source = Worldometers, Coronavirus section), then just 1,809 of these died from coronavirus rather than "with coronavirus" or "where coronavirus was mentioned"  Not far below the 2,000 estimated above.  

At last, some perspective and real numbers.

Compare the 1,809 coronavirus deaths in the first ~6 months of 2020, with the likely 165,000 cancer deaths in the UK per year for some further perspective.  Or you could compare with the 1,743 road traffic fatalities recorded in 2018.

Now, unlike cancer, if we didn't want all this upheaval, and small number of deaths in the UK, we had a choice.  Cancer unfortunately is not something we can keep out of the country, even if we tried.

----------


## orkneycadian

> One aspect my arithmetic struggles to deal with is that here were are, in the middle of an extremely deadly pandemic, with a virus so debilitating that 85% of people need to get tested to even know they have it.  
> 
> And then, the governments Office for National Statistics go and publish some data that shows that for the 3rd week running, the number of deaths, in this very very deadly pandemic is lower than the average for this time of year;
> 
> https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...nglandandwales 
> 
> I am trying to work out a "deadliness index" for this virus, but I keep getting a negative number.  Can any mathematicians on 'e Org help me out please?


Still struggling with this "deadliness index".  That's now 4 weeks on the trot where the UK's death rate has been below the 5 year average;

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...ding10july2020

And to quote from that report.....

_In Week 28, the number of deaths registered was 6.1% below the five-year average (560 deaths fewer), this is the fourth consecutive week that deaths have been below the five-year average; the number of deaths in care homes, hospitals and other communal establishments were also fewer than the five-year average, while the number of deaths in private homes was 706 deaths higher than the five-year average._

So, this pandemic has, for the last 4 weeks in the UK, resulted in a lower death rate than average.  And meanwhile, the worlds population has increased by about 45 million.  And this is a deadly pandemic?  Comparing conoravius to the Spanish Flu outbreak in 1918 - 1920, https://ourworldindata.org/spanish-f...%20population. suggests that at the time of that outbreak, the worlds population was growing by 13 million per year.  Then along came Spanish Flu, and caused the deaths of anywhere between 20 and 50 million.  So as that link above suggests, the worlds population declined.  Yet here we are, in a deadly pandemic, where the worlds population continues to increase, with almost a negligible slowing down?

A pandemic where the UK death rate is below average, and the global population growth is almost completely unaffected?  A strange definition of a pandemic if ever there was.

----------


## Fulmar

We are in the early stages of the global pandemic- I'm surprised you haven't realised that when you set yourself up to be such an expert. In many countries, infection rates are rising exponentially and sadly, that will result in many many deaths, in countries least able to withstand it and among the poorest. I find it very sad and certainly don't wish to see people dying on mass while you seem to almost relish the prospect. Even in European countries, incidence and outbreaks are rising again and the fear in these islands, is for a covid 19 combined with flu epidemic this winter. The Spanish flu actually killed more people second time around. My maternal great uncle was one of them, having survived the First World War, he died from Spanish flu aged 38. 
It is a pity that you do not show more compassion but maybe it is not too late. Disasters Emergency Committee and Unicef are among the many seeking donations to combat Covid 19.

----------


## The Horseman

I realize what you are saying....on the other hand when The Aids Prob arose, some years later it was discovered that in some poor Countries, every person who died, did so from Aids...Reason....More money was available to them.
And each Country has it’s own reporting criteria.
And I heard from ‘a person in authority‘ that certain Hospitals do not want to be known as the Hosp., with the most Covid deaths!
Sends an ominous msg on accuracy!

----------


## orkneycadian

> I find it very sad and certainly don't wish to see people dying on mass while you seem to almost relish the prospect.


Not sure where that concept came from?  In the very early stages, I was rather concerned about this, and the growth rates.  I tried to bring to folks attention, the exponential growth rates that were happening in China.  But no-one seemed to be batting an eyelid on here back then.  Thats when we could have taken real action, in closing our borders.  But that, to some, if not most, seemed a completely unpalatable action.  

So, having passed up on our chance to keep this virus out, we embraced its arrival, by welcoming tens of thousands of arrivals a day through our ports and airports.  That inevitably led to its spread.  It was only after that, that people started paying attention, and rather than every death being reported as "with underlying health conditions" the focus seem to change to "Died with coronavirus"

Since then, we seem to have almost developed a fascination for this virus and the more it can be bigged up, the better.  As a result, about 1900 deaths from coronavirus has become 45,000 deaths with coronavirus.  Hundreds of thousands, soon to become millions of people in the UK have lost their jobs, and we have brought on the biggest recession in 300 years, all for not a lot of purpose.  And now we have the inconvenient truth that the death rate in the UK has been lower than the 5 year average for the last 4 weeks.  And as a result, 3 times more people now die from common or garden flu and pneumonia than they are of (or even with) coronavirus.  And the number of people who are likely to die early of undiagnosed conditions like cancer, has a high probability of going through the roof.

We had our chance to keep coronavirus out of the country.  Instead, we welcomed it in.  Time then now to make sure that (and I think this might be a bit late too.....) that the pill is not worse than the ill.  With ~1900 folk having died in the UK *from* coronavirus, now is the time to make sure we don't have more than that dying from other things.

As for other countries?  Well, its fair to say that the UK has more than its fair share of problems at the moment.  If other countries were to count only deaths from, and not with coronavirus, they will find it not as bad as places like the UK have made it out to be.  As for the UK helping out?  Well, we are still firing vast amounts of foreign aid all over the world.  For example, we were sending £71m to China each year, even though they are the worlds second largest economy;

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/f...-a4506646.html

*Dominic Raab slashes foreign aid to China after £71m taxpayers' cash paid in one year*We send foreign aid to India, even though they are rich enough to have their own space programme

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian...h_Organisation

And we send lots of money to countries that then go and spend it on arms, Bob Geldof found out to his disappointment.  

https://www.spin.com/featured/live-a...eldof-feature/

Though I think he managed to cover up that disappointment and continue trying to deny that much of the Live Aid money went on arms.

With the first wave having been something of a damp squib, it seems now that the scaremongers have moved onto the fabled Second Wave.  Anything to try and squeeze some more out of the furlough scheme and get some more paid holidays.

----------


## Fulmar

What an imagination you have. You should write a book- maybe you already have.

----------


## The Horseman

Could someone explain Sturgeon’s 3 day Turnaround on Spain Quarantine?
Seems a bit of a Faux Pas?

----------


## pat

It is British customs and immigration, not Scottish,  that is why Sturgeon cannot do more on Scotland lockdown and who comes into Scotland.

----------


## The Horseman

> It is British customs and immigration, not Scottish,  that is why Sturgeon cannot do more on Scotland lockdown and who comes into Scotland.


News says ScotGov..........
Are u for the IndyRef Thingy?    U can PM me....s

----------


## orkneycadian

Oh er....  The 5th week on the trot that the number of deaths in England and Wales is below the 5 year average;

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...ding17july2020

*In Week 29, the number of deaths registered was 3.0% below the five-year average (270 deaths fewer), this is the fifth consecutive week that deaths have been below the five-year average; the number of deaths in care homes, hospitals and other communal establishments was also fewer than the five-year average, while the number of deaths in private homes was 766 higher than the five-year average.*

Deaths in care homes and hospitals again below the 5 year average, those in private homes above the 5 year average.

This must be the deadliest pandemic on record.  Less folk dying than usual.  The official statistics are now really starting to undermine the myth of this virus.

----------


## orkneycadian

This country is reaslly starting to lose the plot now, even In Westmister (though fortunately they are not as bad as Holyrood)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53621613

*Coronavirus: Pubs 'may need to shut' to allow schools to reopen*Did Professor Graham Medley actually give any thought to just how daft that is before he said it?  Is he imagining pubs that fill up with schoolkids on their way home for a swift half or a prosecco?  Is he envisaging that the teachers will be so stressed about having to work for 100% pay, instead of sitting about for 80%, that they will be flocking to pubs to ease their tensions?

If they must do anything, then make it simple.  No kids nor teachers allowed in pubs.  Schools open, Pubs open.  Simples.

----------


## orkneycadian

Are the BBC now getting Diane Abbot to do their statistics for them?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53622005

*Coronavirus: Cases rise by 18 in Scotland*


With the particular statement;

*"The tally of 18 new cases on Saturday accounts for 0.5% of the 15,382 tests carried out in the past 24 hours."*

Eh?  Using the arithmetic I was taught at school, 18 is 0.12% of 15,382, not 0.5%

Is it the BBC that's overstating the figures by at least a factor of 4, or the Scottish Government?

----------


## orkneycadian

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...ding24july2020

_In Week 30, the number of deaths registered was 1.8% below the five-year average (161 deaths fewer); this is the sixth consecutive week that deaths have been below the five-year average._

[Alarm Clock] - "Drrrriiinnngggg!!!!!]
[Orkneycadian] "Yawn, what time is it?  Oh that smells nice - Must be Kenco Costa Rican"
[Other orgers] "ZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzz"

----------


## orkneycadian

At last, the penny seems to be dropping.... 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53654644

Coronavirus: UK made serious mistake over border policy, say MPs

----------


## orkneycadian

Looks like Trump was right after all.  The pill is worse than the ill;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020...ort-shows/amp/

Lockdown may cost 200,000 lives, government report shows

----------


## Fulmar

Worse for whom? I think that the families of those who have died from Covid and continue to die every day might argue with you on that one.

----------


## orkneycadian

I guess the families of the 200,000 that could die from lockdown, would be a much more vocal  bunch than the families of the 1,860 who have died from conoravirus.  But the trouble is, we will now have both,  not one or the other.

----------


## Fulmar

There have been 2491 deaths from Covid 19 in Scotland alone- that is deaths where the person had a positive test and then subsequently died from the disease. There is double that number, at least, in which Covid 19 is mentioned on the death certificate though not necessarily having been confirmed by a positive test. I do not understand why you believe your calculations when no one else does nor why you persist in playing down the danger posed by this virus. Can only think it is because you are safely cocooned there up on Orkney and feel you know better than pretty much everybody else. You are in a tiny minority. I know of no one else in my own circle of family and friends who does not take this seriously. If you feel this way, how about a trip to a pub in Aberdeen or north of England just to prove your point?

----------


## orkneycadian

It was the UK Goverment themselves who stated that just 4% of those that have died WITH conoravirus, died  FROM  conoravirus. And it was Matt Hancock who stated that the way deaths are counted, really needed a shake up, citing a hypothetical example of someone asymptomatic, who returned a positive test in March, but was run over and killed by a bus in July, would be counted as a conoravirus death.

----------


## orkneycadian

So, population of Wales = 3,153,000

(source = Wikipedia 2019 estimate)

Population of Scotland = 5,463,300

(source = Wikipedia 2019 estimate.

Wales positive Conoravirus cases in week to 26/8/20 = 177

(source = https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/w...atest-18831580)

Scottish positive Conoravirus cases in week to 26/8/20 = 531

(source = https://www.gov.scot/publications/co...-for-scotland/)

Rate of new Conoravirus cases in farcemask shunning Wales in the last 7 days = 177 / 3,153,000 = 0.0056%

Rate of new Conoravirus cases in farcemask adoring Scotland in the last 7 days = 531 / 5,463,300 = 0.0097%

So, based on actual data, wearing a farcemask increases your chances of testing positive for Conoravirus by by a factor of almost 2.

Who is pulling who's leg?

----------


## orkneycadian

Oh dear, the stats continuing to highlight the dangers in wearing farcemasks.

In the last 24 hours, 40 new positive tests in Wales, where farcemasks are optional;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51888681

Meanwhile, 88 new positive tests in Scotland, where farcemasks are mandatory; 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53958229

You can work out the rates yourselves based on the above respective populations, but yet again, data shows that wearing farcemasks leads to a higher rate of positive tests?

----------


## orkneycadian

56 new positive cases in the last 24 hours in farcemask free Wales.

123 new positive cases in the last 24 hours  in farcemasks galore Scotland.

Both sets of data from the BBC News site. 

Can anyone see a pattern emerging yet?  I can.

----------


## orkneycadian

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53971946http://

Coronavirus in Scotland: Nicola Sturgeon 'concerned' over 160 new cases

Yes Nicola, we are all concerned too. Concerned why you cannot make the connection with why Wales only has  39 new positive cases to Scotland's  160

----------


## Fulmar

So are you saying that, in your scientific judgement (and what do the WHO know compared to you with your evident years of experience in lab research on communicable diseases), that wearing face masks is causing more cases in Scotland compared to Wales?

----------


## orkneycadian

The first thing to bear in mind Fulmar, that the 2 administrations have a different approach. So it's not possible for them both to be following WHO guidance or directives to the letter.  So this is not just an "Orkneycadian vs the WHO" matter. One of the 2 administrations it's also somewhat questioning of the WHO recommendations. 

So day after day, stats come our showing that Scotland is returning more positive cases than Wales. Today it's 154 and 51 respectively. At the very least, we can say with some degree of certainty that farcemasks are not doing a very good job of limiting the number of positive test results. But then again, that's what the WHO said months ago.  "Don't wear masks,  save them for the medical people. They don't make any difference in this scenario anyway"

A few weeks ago I posed the question of why ordinary flu and pneumonia were, at the time, killing 6 times the number of people who were dying with (not of) conoravirus, despite everyone wearing farcemasks. If they are so good, then we should be having no cases of ordinary flu either. But we do.

So, one of the two administrations is not fully following WHO recommendations. 

One of the  two administrations has a much lower rate of positive tests than the other, even taking population into account. 

Both countries are similar in terms of variation from urban to very rural. Both share a land border with England.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist, or even a lab researcher in communicable diseases.

----------


## orkneycadian

So when Aberdeen gets 14 positive cases per 100,000 people its "Lockdown! Shut everything down, close the pubs,  shops, cafes, offices, etc"

When Glasgow gets 33 positive cases per 100,000 people its "Gonnae nae go visiting so many o yer pals?"

----------


## kosacid

everyone has gone mad lol, I was at Lidl Thurso the first time I have been out since this started, got this woman screaming in my face why I wasn't wearing a mask and saying to the staff to chuck me out I was like wtf, I said I was exempt then she started on about some bloody badge, so basically I have to display I am disabled might as well go about with a star of David on my sleeve, having COPD and a heart murmur its impossible to wear one so I think I will just stay in the house a few more months until folk get a grip

----------


## orkneycadian

Don't lose heart kosacid. If they, or anyone else tries that on again, just put your hand up, traffic officer asking you to stop style, and remind them about social distancing and the ban on raising your voice, as that apparently spreads this elusive virus.

----------


## orkneycadian

> So when Aberdeen gets 14 positive cases per 100,000 people its "Lockdown! Shut everything down, close the pubs,  shops, cafes, offices, etc"
> 
> When Glasgow gets 33 positive cases per 100,000 people its "Gonnae nae go visiting so many o yer pals?"


Nicola didn't really think her discrimination would go unnoticed did she? 

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/p...s-22616270.amp

*Aberdeen council leader accuses Scottish Government of 'central belt bias'*

And how right that Council leader is. It's quite shameful the way Aberdeen have been treated.

----------


## orkneycadian

So in one day, Greater Glasgow and Clyde turn in more positive cases than the whole of Wales.  And this is the area that Queen Nic thinks needs less of a lockdown than Aberdeen. And on top of that, folk think she is making a good job of this.  You couldn't make it up. You really couldn't.

----------


## orkneycadian

Ahh, so the herd immunity theory works after all then?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54000629

*Coronavirus: Tests 'could be picking up dead virus'*

----------


## Fulmar

It has nothing whatsoever to do with herd immunity. Picking up dead virus on the tests is not the same as the antibody test. The jury is still out on whether people who have had the virus can be re-infected sometime later and how long any initial immunity conferred by antibodies may last.

----------


## The Horseman

Russia to the ‘rescue’.   Nice friendly people.... eh!

----------


## orkneycadian

And slowly, but surely, Scotland wakes up to the smell of coffee......

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54042003

*Anti-lockdown protest as coronavirus cases rise by 141*

----------


## ecb

From the BBC web site, titled "Coronavirus: Five reasons why rise in cases is not all it seems … ": 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54064347

----------


## orkneycadian

Simon of Simon's Cat gets the common cold.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNAZ...axbGG5&index=1

Simon of Simon's Cat gets a positive Conoravirus test result and has to work from home....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWIPZvwcnX8

----------


## Fulmar

You are ploughing an even more lonely furrow now. Restrictions now UK wide (with the agreement of most people, it seems) and face masks now compulsory in all indoor settings in Wales. Virus cases rising fast everywhere and we are thought to be following the pattern of France where the initial rise in cases among the young is now starting to affect the older folk who are arriving in the hospitals there in increasing numbers because they are ill with Covid 19. Of course, no more cases on Orkney so you can continue to spout that it is all some kind of over-reaction and not a problem even though 41,000 plus people in the UK have died from this virus. I know of absolutely nobody who agrees with you in my personal circle but perhaps there is a little group of you on Orkney who all feel the same- or is just you, I wonder.

----------


## orkneycadian

> even though 41,000 plus people in the UK have died from this virus.


Get with the terminology Fulmar.  Its 41,000 plus people have died *with* the virus.  Not *from* it.  That's the terminology used by government, and for a reason which we all know.  

For months, deaths in England and Wales have been below the 5 year average.  There have been a couple of exception weeks, but the ONS state that (and to quote them from https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...ng28august2020) "however, the rise was not driven by the coronavirus (COVID-19)." 

At some point, we are going to see the deaths back up above the 5 year average, with the ONS stating its not coronavirus as the cause.  Instead, its likely to be all the folk dying of untreated conditions, undiagnosed cancers and the likes.

----------


## orkneycadian

How much flatter does the curve have to be?



Source - Worldometers

----------


## kosacid

its a well known fact they are saying it's only 6% of that 41.000 have died directly from covid like I say everyone needs to get a grip including this government and come clean with facts, or is this whole dam thing about controlling the sheep and reducing the population by all means possible this is going to have a big knock-on effect for years killing more than covid will ever do

----------


## orkneycadian

Not sure what the latest number is, but certainly the government were putting about the number of 4% a few months ago.  Whether you use 4% or 6%, thats still less than 2,500 people.  Still equal to or a bit more than the 1784 road fatalities in 2018, but I havn't noticed that we have abolished all forms of motor transport to save 1784 lives a year.

----------


## orkneycadian

I think this one has been kicking around since at least March, but it does complement the chart a few posts up;

----------


## Alrock

> I think this one has been kicking around since at least March, but it does complement the chart a few posts up;



If only they took all these other causes of death as seriously as they take covid-19

----------


## orkneycadian

And the other sad fact is that you could re-do that sign to say "Welcome to NHS [insert region here]" and the only queue that would be moving would be the Convid19 one. All the others would be completely static, with folk getting iller and dying in them.   ::

----------


## Fulmar

That is complete rubbish and not true. People, for example, are having cancer surgery now for primary tumours (thank goodness) in all parts of the UK and with short waiting times. Why do you consistently run down the NHS?

----------


## orkneycadian

How's the Caithness General doing for in patients?  Balfour is still like a ghost town.  Folk with appointments for things like CT scans that were cancelled in March still waiting.

----------


## orkneycadian

You would kinda think we would be seeing the benefits of wearing farcemasks by now, wouldn't you?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54131591

*Coronavirus in Scotland: Covid cases hit four-month high*

----------


## Fulmar

Well, I know of people who have had CT scans at Caithness General- maybe the ones you are referring to were not urgent, I do not know, obviously.

----------


## orkneycadian

These farcemask manufacturers seem to have a lot to answer for, especially in France, where they are mandatory in so many more places than in the UK.  But despite the French dutifully wearing their face nappies, the rate of "cases" continues to rise;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54137319

*Coronavirus: Cases in France leap past 10,000 a day*Are Trading Standards aware of all these farcemasks that are being sold that appear to be not working properly?  Is there any logical explanation as to why the rate of cases, and even the rise in cases seems to be unaffected by the introduction of rules mandating farcemask wearing? Why are the farcemasks not doing anything about the rate of deaths from "normal flu" and pneumonia, which are now running at 10 times the rate of deaths "with" Conoravirus?

So many questions, so few answers.....

----------


## ecb

Story about treatment such as fillings aren't allowed to be done by dentists on the NHS, but are available at the same dentists if the patient goes as a private patient but at a much higher price, with affordability issues for less well off patients:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...-fife-54178544

----------


## orkneycadian

Jeremy Vine squirming quite badly there between 1230 and 1300 when so many of his callers were from Sweden telling him that its been largely business as usual there, no lockdown, no farcemasks, no social distancing, and they have a low pro rata there than the UK.  Jeremy trying to hold up the other side of the argument, suggesting that Sweden has less people than the UK, that they "automatically social distance", etc, only for the British expats in Sweden to pull him up on it and tell him that's not the case.  No wonder he was so pleased to get the Undertones on and the callers in Sweden off.....

And the dentist story highlighted by ecb above.  Just shows how much of a scam this all is.  Orkney Islands Council have all but stopped providing services, blaming conoravirus.

----------


## orkneycadian

So Wales introduces compulsory farcemask wearing in shops.  Rather than the number of cases in Wales falling as a result, they go up.

Does anyone know how that works?

----------


## Alrock

Interesting...




> Face masks may be inadvertently giving people Covid-19 immunity  and making them get less sick from the virus, academics have suggested  in one of the most respected medical journals in the world.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/face-masks-could-giving-people-covid-19-immunity-researchers

----------


## Fulmar

Really good news!

----------


## orkneycadian

Interesting article there Alrock.  Just a shame it doesn't contain the text you have quoted.

----------


## Alrock

> Interesting article there Alrock.  Just a shame it doesn't contain the text you have quoted.


Sorry... Fixed post with correct link now.

----------


## Neil Howie

> Jeremy Vine squirming quite badly there between 1230 and 1300 when so many of his callers were from Sweden telling him that its been largely business as usual there, no lockdown, no farcemasks, no social distancing, and they have a low pro rata there than the UK.  Jeremy trying to hold up the other side of the argument, suggesting that Sweden has less people than the UK, that they "automatically social distance", etc, only for the British expats in Sweden to pull him up on it and tell him that's not the case.  No wonder he was so pleased to get the Undertones on and the callers in Sweden off.....
> 
> And the dentist story highlighted by ecb above.  Just shows how much of a scam this all is.  Orkney Islands Council have all but stopped providing services, blaming conoravirus.


What's your point?  Take the foot completely off the break and end up like America?

You suggest Sweden is some how not social distancing but haven't mentioned that the official guidelines is to social distance and that people were banned from going to care homes.  Some numbers - total deaths: 
Sweden 5,865 

Norway 567 

Denmark 638

----------


## orkneycadian

Some more numbers - From Worldometers.

Sweden - Deaths per 1M population = 580
UK - Deaths per 1M population = 615

And

Sweden = No lockdown, economically OK, schools and workplaces stayed open throughout, no looming unemployment crisis, no farcemasks, etc
UK = Lockdowns galore, economically trashed, schools closed, businesses and jobs on the scrapheap, increasing use of farcemasks with no effect

Jeremy Vine was trying to make the same point as Neil, but was getting corrected by callers from Sweden.

"Ah but!" said Jeremy, "in Sweden they don't have folk going on the lash like in the UK and getting all cuddly at closing time!"
"Wrong" said the Swedish callers, "Folk in Sweden like a bevvy as much as the Brits"

"Ah but!" said Jeremy, "in Sweden they naturally social distance!"
"Wrong", said the callers, "Swedes have not been doing any social distancing"

Jeremy - "Er, I think I'll play some Undertones......"

p.s.  One of Jeremy's callers said that even the news in Sweden is now largely Conoravirus free and they are onto more pressing matters.

----------


## orkneycadian

> Interesting...
> 
> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/face-masks-could-giving-people-covid-19-immunity-researchers


Another interesting link there Alrock.  Thank you for posting.

The theory there seems to basically be herd (natural) immunity, with a suggestion that the viral load can be controlled by a farcemask.  In order to get some of that viral load, to subsequently develop that herd (natural) immunity, the person needs some exposure to the virus.  Sitting at home "shielding" in a farcemask, or wearing a farcemask whilst the sole occupant of a car (there are plenty do it....) is not going to bring on that immunity unfortunately.

In the earlier incarnation of this virus, it appeared that 85% of people who had it were not aware of it.  Not sure what the current level of that is.  So 85% of people could happily take a "full viral load", bearing in mind back then there were no lockdowns, social distancing, farcemasks etc, and not exhibit any symptoms.  Those 85% don't / didn't need any throttling of their viral load to obtain immunity.  In fact, for 85% of the population, viral load throttling may actually be what tips the balance towards failing to get enough virus for that immunity to develop.

Again it seems to point to letting the healthy out, and shielding the vulnerable.

My suggestion is therefore anyone who thinks that Conoravirus is a threat to them should stay out of the way in their houses, wrapped from head to toe in farcemask material, which they spray with 70% alcohol every hour.  They should stay well away from their net curtains, which means no looking out the window to see what the healthy neighbours are up to.  Alas, there will be no furlough payments this time, so they'll need to live off their savings.  The rest of us will get on with life as normal, like the Swedes.  When the shielders feel silly enough, they can emerge from their shielding, realising that they are the ones now that need the vaccines, not just for Conoravirus, but just about everything else as well due to their immune systems having given up and gone to sleep.  The rest of us will be herd immune.

----------


## Shabbychic

> Some more numbers - From Worldometers.
> 
> Sweden - Deaths per 1M population = 580
> UK - Deaths per 1M population = 615
> 
> And
> 
> *Sweden = No lockdown, economically OK, schools and workplaces stayed open throughout, no looming unemployment crisis, no farcemasks, etc*
> UK = Lockdowns galore, economically trashed, schools closed, businesses and jobs on the scrapheap, increasing use of farcemasks with no effect
> ...





Since I don't watch things like Jeremy Vine, I can't argue with your statement, But *this article* has a slightly different take on it.

----------


## orkneycadian

I see Convid-19, as a "cause" of death (jury is out on this posting as to whether or not this is death *by* Convid-19 or death *with* Convid-19) in England in August, according to the ONS, was a whopping 24th in the "league table" of causes of death.  

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...les/august2020

As well as being behind;

Dementia / Alzheimers
Heart disease
Lung cancer
Cerebrovascular disease
Lower respiratory disease
Colon cancer
"something else"
Flu and pneumonia
Lymphatic cancer
Prostate cancer

Which make up the "top 10", Convid-19 doesn't even make it into the top 20, let alone the top 10.  At least in Wales, it makes it into the top 20, at position 19.  

Glad to see we are putting so much effort into dealing with a cause of / with death that's so far down the list.  We must be doing amazing things by comparison to deal with things like prostate and colon cancers, given their much higher prevalence. 

But still gobsmacked that flu and pneumonia are still in the top 10, despite the wearing of farcemasks.  Surely they should be well down the list by now?

----------


## orkneycadian

If Conoravirus becomes so deadly at 10pm, can't we simply outsmart it by putting the clocks back 3 hours?

----------


## orkneycadian

Seems that the Conoravirus continues to outsmart the policy makers, especially in Wales;

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/h...er-20-18983902

*Coronavirus infection rates, cases and deaths for all parts of Wales on Wednesday, September 23*

"Wales has had 389 new coronavirus cases. There were only more new cases in a single day once before, on April 9"



There they were with no farcemasks and increasing numbers of cases.  So they thought that to reverse the rise, they would start wearing farcemasks. And lo, not only did the rate of new cases fail to fall, they have continued to rise, by an ever increasing number.  

You would think that even the medical boffins would conclude "Hmmmm, that didn't work worth a snuff - We might as well drop that and try something else"

Gives absolutely no confidence in vaccine development.  I can see it now......

"We tried injecting the hamsters with sample no 43F of the trial vaccine, boss.  It didn't work, and half the hamsters died within 10 minutes of the jab"

"Righto, keep 43F in the mix.  Now try injecting the hamsters with a mix of 43F and 43G and see what happens.  But whatever you do, keep the 43F going" 

"But boss, 43F didnt work and made things worse!"

"Keep up the good work troops, your country is counting on you - Smithers, can you order some more 43F please?  We can't go running low on it."

----------


## Fulmar

One more try for you who are so obsessed with facemasks. It is clear to most people that the infection rate rise is not BECAUSE (responsible) people are wearing facemasks but because the irresponsible have been flouting social distancing and restrictions and gathering in situations (while not wearing them, of course) that has allowed the virus to spread. If you want evidence of that, look no further than the outbreaks in the universities. Look at any report from any city or town where a member of the public in the street has been interviewed and the words lately have been the same ''people are not bothering any more''. People know that the irresponsible few have been doing what they shouldn't have and what the responsible majority have avoided doing to the best of their ability. This virus IS highly infectious and contagious. You should humble yourself and talk to someone/medic who has actually seen it and dealt with it on the frontline and who is now braced for further horrors in the hospitals or to someone who has been affected by it and is struggling to recover though I doubt that anything will penetrate your closed mind on this.
I realise I should not have 'shouted' up there (if that is what it is called) but I find your dismissive, contemptuous attitude hard to take. My nurse daughter in London was deployed to the front line from her regular nursing job during the initial outbreak onto a Covid ward and nursed patients, some of whom died. They didn't die of other things, they died from this virus. She did a 14 hour shift and didn't have time to take her breaks, they were so busy. She went home, went straight to bed and was back in again at 7am the next morning. That's what it was like and you give the lie and rubbish all of it.

----------


## orkneycadian

Farcemasks are a good yardstick in that they are / were claimed to be so outstandingly effective.  And Wales is a further good yardstick in that there is good evidence of no farcemasks, then farcemasks.

Taking each in turn.

Remember all the graphics telling us how effective farcemasks are meant to be?  The ones where its suggested that if neither of 2 people wear a mask, then each is in sneeze range, if 1 wears a mask, then 1 is in sneeze range of the other, but not vice versa, and if both are wearing masks, they can both sneeze to their hearts content, and nothing will go anywhere.  And then there was the analogy that no masks was the same as someone peeing on your bare leg.  If you wore trousers, you would still get a wet leg, but if you both wore trousers, only the pee'er would get a wet leg.  The graphics showed that wearing farcemasks was so effective that there was no excuse not to wear one.  And this before they even became mandatory.

Then take Wales.  Before the introduction of compulsory farcemasks, pubs were open, folk were eating out to help out, going back to work, the lot.  Then, in a very singular change, farcemask wearing was mandated.  So within 2 weeks or so of that, and changes can only really be down to the efficacy, or lack of as the case may be, or farcemasks.  Of course, from the first analysis above, we are told that they work so unbelievably well, that you would have no hesitation in betting your life that Wales introducing farcemasks would have nothing other than a cliff edge in "cases", with them almost stopping overnight.

But no.  Rather than that, the cases rise.  Whats going on?  

There is no doubt that more folk in Wales are wearing farcemasks.  Sure, there will be ones that don't or won't.  But lets just say that before the compulsion, that 10% of Welsh shoppers wore farcemasks and after compulsion 80% do.  Even if the latter is not 100%, then the step change in wearing of farcemasks before and after compulsion is significantly upwards.  But yet, the rate of cases has not fallen.

That is why these 2 variables are so interesting, and the even of farcemask compulsion being introduced in Wales is so relevant.  If ever there was a test for them, with before and after metrics, that was it.  And they have failed.  Miserably.

----------


## orkneycadian

> Sweden 5,865 
> 
> Norway 567 
> 
> Denmark 638


So Sweden, you can travel to and from without quarantining at the moment (UK Govt advice, heavens knows what Krankie is prescribing.....)

Norway too

But on Saturday Denmark becomes a country which if you come to the UK from, you will need to quarantine.

So much for Sweden doing so much worse than its neighbours.

----------


## Fulmar

You just don't get it do you. The cases have risen lately because people have not been complying with the rules, the most important of which are the social distancing and hand washing. (Face masks were only ever part of the mix and I have seen no report in all this time that ever suggested otherwise- that they might help and were worth having as part of the measures). Prior to this, as we all know, the numbers dropped as we came through the initial peak and then people were allowed and even encouraged to start mixing again (with, actually, no requirement for facemasks in ordinary social situations) at a time when the virus had not gone but was very much still out there. Result, a few weeks later, an inevitable rise in cases that has now accelerated so much as to cause real concern, just when we are entering the flu season and that will have a big impact too. And lets not forget that children are a big spreader of flu but not of Covid. You may not care and clearly you don't give a damn but I do not want to see the situation repeated in the hospitals again with other equally important services shut down simply because the NHS cannot turn away the critically ill. However, you will have this thread to yourself now as I'm done with it for the time being.

----------


## orkneycadian

BLataently copied accors from a site here in Orkney......

*Someone looked Into this for Lockdown Skeptics and wrote:

**What about the cost of the Nightingale Hospital in Glasgow that is shutting its doors. Eye watering!

**Further to your story today on the decommissioning contract for the NHS Louisa Jordan facility at the SEC in Glasgow, I had a quick look into the costs involved with this empty COVID-19 hospital.*
*The contracts page you provided a link that shows it's costing £429,877.48 for a contract merely to appoint a "Lead Advisor consultant to support the decommissioning of the NHS Louisa Jordan temporary field hospital at the Scottish Events Campus (SEC) in Glasgow".*
_The minutes of the NHS Louisa Jordan Governance Board on May 21st states that total decommissioning costs were estimated at over £4 million, so there's considerably more to come._

*A Scottish Government FOI release published on July 22nd shows that no patients were treated at the facility.*
*This recent spreadsheet from September 10th shows that the final build cost was £30.9 million and monthly running costs have been £2.4 million.*
*The Herald featured these figures in a story on September 11th.*
*The Daily Record ran a story on the costs on September 20th, stating that the hospital with no Covid patients will cost taxpayers £67 million.*
]*But, all is not lost  it has been used to provide healthcare training.*
*And it may have hosted some orthopaedic outpatient consults.*
*Multiply these staggering sums of cash across all of the standby Covid facilities, and there's a colossal bill to be paid by taxpayers.*
*And for what in return?*

----------


## ecb

Article in the Groat online, "New Covid map shows number of coronavirus cases in Caithness areas":

https://www.johnogroat-journal.co.uk...-areas-214081/

----------


## aqua

What numbers, or ranges of numbers, do the colours on the map represent?

I dont see a caption or a key. 

According to the forum, this is my first post since 3 June, so 4 months ago. Not much has changed here since then.  ::

----------


## aqua

Ok, I see, you have to visit the Public Health Scotland website. 

Having done so, I learned there were more than 100 new cases per 100,000 population in North East Caithness in the week leading up to 1 October. That’s quite a lot!

----------


## Alrock

From my reading of the map...

25th Sept to 1st Oct...
Wick side = 1-4 positive cases
Thurso side = 0 positive cases

----------


## aqua

Yes indeed. 

If my arithmetic is correct, 4 cases in NE Caithness is more than 100 in 100,000, but 3 cases is not. So according to the map above there were 4 cases in NE Caithness during that 7 day period.

----------


## Scunner

2 in Thurso area in the past 2 weeks.  abroad on holiday, visit Cumbria, and back to Caithness.  Tested in Dornoch

----------


## Fulmar

Yes, well I have heard of cases in the county too. Sadly,  Forse of Nature have just had to close for a deep clean and will not re-open until it 100% safe to do so. That is on their Facebook page.

----------


## Neil Howie

> BLataently copied accors from a site here in Orkney......
> 
> 
> *And for what in return?*


the suppression of a pandemic.  

Would you rather we take off the masks, stop social distancing and accelerate the spread?  Really?

----------


## orkneycadian

I think Neil you are missing the point of what the original author was saying. They were noting that the total cost of the Louisa Jordan hospital will be at least £67 million, yet has never seen a conoravirus patient. The original author goes on to question the total cost, multiplied across all the temporary hospitals, most of which have also seen no conoravirus patients, and those that have, at a tiny fraction of their capacity. The author then asks what we get in return for all these empty and unused hospitals.

----------


## Fulmar

Well, it is good news as far as I'm concerned that the hospitals were not needed and I hope that they will still not be needed but until we come through the pandemic, we are not going to know that for sure. Further restrictions will be announced today and polls show that around 70% of the Scottish public support the Scottish Governments approach and have confidence in what they are doing. Must be  very galling for you orkneycadian but there it is.

----------


## orkneycadian

It's also great news that a further 26 billion plus of taxpayers money is going out the door, never to be seen again, including an estimated 1.9 billion going to scammers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54432916http://

*
Bounce back loans: Taxpayers may lose £26bn on unpaid loans*

As you never know when you might need a scammer, it's good to see them being so well supported.

----------


## orkneycadian

> Further restrictions will be announced today and polls show that around 70% of the Scottish public support the Scottish Governments approach and have confidence in what they are doing.


Seems like her approach isn't working though..... 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54435870http://
_
"The first minister said in June that she believed Scotland was "not far away" from eliminating the virus.
But the number of people testing positive has increased sharply in recent weeks - in keeping with some other parts of the UK and Europe - despite Scotland generally taking a more cautious approach to the virus than England."_

----------


## orkneycadian

So here we are again.  Orkney, Shetland and even Highland being tarred with the same Southern Belt brush;


Source = https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54432006

Glasgow, Lanarkshire and Lothian all with infection rates above the UK average.  And somehow, this is considered an achievement for Holyrood, as they are supposed to be doing better than Westmister.

And remember, Aberdeen had a very serious lockdown imposed from Holyrood when they hit 14 cases per 100,000.  Its taken until Glasgow reached 176.5 cases per 100,000 before a lesser lockdown was applied there.  And the various areas of Scotland are supposed to be treated equally?  

So as well as Aberdeen now being very aggrieved with the Scottish Government, you can understand from the graphic above why hospitality businesses in Orkney are wondering why, with 0 cases per 100,000, they are having to effectively close.  Drinking outside in an evening in Orkney and Shetland, in October?  Aye, right......

On the plus side, Nicola has given a huge boost to the Orkney and Shetland "lets get the hell out of Scotland and secure our place in the UK" campaigns today.  Not hearing many folk here tonight thinking that being run by the Southern Belt is still a good idea.

----------


## orkneycadian

So looking to see how the 4 nations are doing with cases per 100,000

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases



And taking the 6th, as the data for the 7th looks incomplete so far.

England - 7138 positive tests out of a population of 56,286,961 (source = wikipedia, 2019 estimate) = 12.68 per 100,000
Scotland - 949 positive tests out of a population of 5,463,300 (source = wikipedia, 2019 estimate) = 17.37 per 100,000
Wales - 130 positive tests out of a population of 3,153,000 (source = wikipedia, 2019 estimate) = 4.12 per 100,000
Northern Ireland - 763 positive tests out of a population of 1,893,700 (source = wikipedia, 2019 estimate) = 40.29 per 100,000

So Northern Ireland are making the biggest pigs ear of it.  Scotland are in second place.  England are doing considerably better than Scotland, and Wales are glad they managed to go so long without farcemasks.  But as we saw from the grpahic above posted yesterday, its the south of Scotland that is really dragging the rest down with it.  She's not doing very well is she?

----------


## orkneycadian

Some interesting data in this link, reported from the Oxford University Centre for Evidence Based Medicine

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/a...AVID-ROSE.html

Most interesting is that the average age of people dying *with* conoravirus is 82.4

Meanwhile, the average age of folk dying with other causes is 81.5

And this against a backdrop of an average UK life expectancy (source = https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ife_expectancy) of 81.2

So its official.  People with conoravirus live longer.  OK, well, maybe not quite.  But given that the average age of people dying at the moment is higher than the current life expectancy for the UK, its not the most aggressive of pandemics this.  Especially since the worlds population has increased by 60 million since the start of the year.

----------


## orkneycadian

Oh dear, its not working, is it Nicola?

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18...rded-24-hours/

*Covid in Scotland: 1246 new cases recorded over 24 hours*You told us it was Weegies going to each others houses that was the main cause.  So you banned them (going to each others houses, rather than banning Weegies, per se).  Why's it not working Nicola?  Your Southern Belt compatriots are dragging down the country, and nothing you are doing seems to be working.  Instead, you are shutting down businesses 300 miles away.  Will you be surprised, Nicola, when you find that doesn't work either?

On the plus side, the herd immunity is now coming along nicely!

----------


## Fulmar

_I would simply appeal to people, even if you fundamentally disagree and hate what I am doing right now, at least try and remember that I am not doing it because I want to harm you. I am doing it because I want to keep people safe and strike that balance as best I can.
_

Nicola SturgeonFirst Minister

----------


## orkneycadian

So she gives no explanation why its not working then?

----------


## orkneycadian

Dear Auntie Nicola,

Thank you for printing my letter in your Agony Aunt column. 

My problem is this. Some months ago, I found a crack in an egg in a box of 6 I bought in Tesco. This worried me a lot, so I tested the other 5 by tapping them with a small hammer. They all cracked too. I bought another box of eggs and tested them with a bigger hammer. Not only did they all crack, but they smashed to bits. Concerned by all of this, I have ramped up my checks on eggs. This has included using nail guns, tarmac whackers, and the latest, a road roller, to perform mass testing on thousands of eggs at a time. They all keep breaking, and I am now finding tens of thousands of weak eggs every day.  There's egg everywhere, including on my face.  What should I do? 

Love

Orkneycadian




Dear Orkneycadian

Stop testing the eggs and just eat the damned things like you used to. 

Love

Auntie Nicola

----------


## Fulmar

Oh, and you've had a confirmed case in Orkney in the last 24 hours.

----------


## orkneycadian

Dear Auntie Nicola,

Thank you very much for your help, but I am still a bit worried.  I have been taking advice from PARSLEY (Professors And Retired Scientists who Love Egg Yolks) and they are advising me differently.  Professor Donald "Duck" Wit tells me that if the increasing measures are not finding eggs that don't break, then we need even more measures.  It was he who suggest the road roller, since the tarmac whacker seemed to break all the eggs.  He also suggested that we should wrap up all the eggs individually in little white and blue pouches with elastic ties, and seperate them by 2m, before testing them with the road roller.  But its not made one bit of difference.  The road roller simply crushes the eggs through the pouches, and travels 2m before crushing each one.  Duck Wit is now suggesting we get more and bigger roadrollers, as the previous roadrollers are obviously not enough.  He also suggest laying the eggs down 3m apart instead of 2m.

All this plant hire is costing me a fortune.  But Professor Wit is a very highly respected rocket scientist, so that obviously makes him very knowledgeable about eggs.  And road making equipment.

There are egg soaked blue and white pouches everywhere.  Its a bit of an environmental nightmare, as I understand they do not break down due to all the plastic in them.

I did try your advice, and broke an egg into a pan, the way we used to, and was a bit stunned to see that it still fries and tastes as good as I remember.  But PARSLEY, and their advice, must know the truth?  Don't they?

Love

Orkneycadian

----------


## orkneycadian

> Oh, and you've had a confirmed case in Orkney in the last 24 hours.


Just the one?  Not the 800 or 900 as in the Southern Belt?  Bummer, its going to take ages to get to herd immunity at this rate.

See what happens when you go and shut the pubs.

----------


## Fulmar

It's not you then- was starting to worry due to feverish posts above. If I were you, I would change where I buy my eggs.

----------


## Neil Howie

> Bummer, its going to take ages to get to herd immunity at this rate.


I just think that a radio phone-in show should not be the basis for a nation's pandemic response.

I'm curious as to what you think it should be, non-suppression?

----------


## orkneycadian

Suppression?  Of a virus so deadly, most folk have to be tested to know they have it?

Sounds like time for some perspective again.  

Lets remember some of the reliable stats we have had;


Oxford Universities Centre for Evidence Based Medicine has this week highlighted that the average age of Conoravirus deaths (with, from, the lot) is above the average age of all the rest, and above the average life expectancyThere have been various figures bandied about as to how many folk who are reported as dying *with* conoravirus actually died *from* conoravirus.  Ian Duncan Smith told Jeremy Vine some months ago it was 4%, someone posted on here since then, it was 6%.  Either way, its in the same ball park.  worldometers is today reporting 42,760 for the UK.  So taking 5% of that, then its 2138 who have died *from* conoravirusIn August in England, deaths *with* conoravirus was the 24th leading "cause" of death.  In Wales, it was 19th.  Lung cancer was in the top 10.In 2016, there were 77,900 smoking related deaths (source = https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-info...-and-mortality)  Now smoking is an awful lot easier to "suppress" and therefore suppress the deaths and ill health arising from it.  Shutting down a few tobacconists here and there is nothing compared to the hospitality shutdown that Scotland has had foisted upon it.  Now, some have argued in the past that the government would never outlaw smoking, as it rakes in too much tax for them.  How much?  About £12 billion, according to https://fullfact.org/economy/does-sm...akes-treasury/ with about £3.2 billion (same source) lost from the Treasury in cost of treating the smokers.  So the Government "makes" about 9 billion a year from smokers.  But yet, it has been prepared to throw away many, many times that sum on a virus that is 24th in the league table?  Why not simply ban all smoking and sale of tobacco in the UK tomorrow?  Would save 77,900 lives a year (eventually), which is an awful lot more than 2138 in 9 months.The mortality rate of conoravirus is well under 1%, and almost all of those are above the life expectancy age, and the average mortality age of other causes of death.

So Neil, I guess since you have asked about suppression, how do you feel we should be tackling the 77,900 annual avoidable deaths arising from smoking?  At just £9 billion of net revenue to the government, is it worth it?  Its the easiest 77,900 deaths to avoid - Just needs a simple bit of legislation passing through parliament.  And the revenue loss is peanuts by comparison to the eventual cost of the conoravirus farce which is likely to run to trillions.

----------


## orkneycadian

> So looking to see how the 4 nations are doing with cases per 100,000
> 
> https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases
> 
> 
> 
> And taking the 6th, as the data for the 7th looks incomplete so far.
> 
> England - 7138 positive tests out of a population of 56,286,961 (source = wikipedia, 2019 estimate) = 12.68 per 100,000
> ...


Oh dear, its all going pear shaped now.  Using the same data source as above for the 8th of October;

Scotland = 17.46 per 100,000
Northern Ireland = 35.22 per 100,000
England = 7.36 per 100,000
Wales = 1.61 per 100,000

England and Wales making good progress.  Northern Ireland still the worst but a bit better.  Scotland have changed by 0.1 per 100,000

----------


## aqua

Although I don’t have the greatest trust in the motivations of the left wing organisation Skawkbox, their claim that only 4% of virus transmission occurs via hospitality venues bothers me. They claim 38% of transmission occurs in schools/universities, 26% in the workspace and 18% in care homes. That was data for week 40, which was presumably very recently. 

https://skwawkbox.org/2020/10/09/tor...chools-are-38/

----------


## orkneycadian

And very recently, when faced with rising positive test results in the Glasgow area, way in excess of what required a lockdown in Aberdeen, The High Priestess of Holyrood told us that the issue was not in hospitality (so the Weegie pubs could stay open! - Unlike the Aberdeen ones) but in household visiting.  the 4% for hospitality you mention above Aqua, sounds familiar.  So households visits were banned in the Glasgow area.  But yet, the number of positive tests kept rising.

There is no correlation whatsoever between any of the measures being taken, and the resulting data.

----------


## aqua

Most of the words and arguments on Skawkbox are either plain wrong or loony leftie lies and the sort of pathetic unmitigated garbage that youd expect from them.  But I worry about the numbers.

----------


## Neil Howie

You didn't answer my question if you wanted any measures.

Seems to me like you're falling with a parachute and you're thinking, this isn't working, might as well take it off.

----------


## The Horseman

New stats out in Europe, show that altho there is a resurgence of Covid cases, less people are going to Hosp.....and there have been less deaths!
Just heard a Swedish Scientist talk about it.......

----------


## orkneycadian

> You didn't answer my question if you wanted any measures.


Sorry, that was maybe in an earlier posting - To re-iterate, for those that want to lock themselves away, wrapped up in 70% alcohol soaked cotton wool, feel free.  But there's no furlough money this time.  If thats your lifestyle choice, you need to fund it yourselves.  The rest of us will get on with it, and wonder why the 23 causes of death above Conoravirus (In England in August) are now not getting similar treatment to what Conoravirus did to date.




> Seems to me like you're falling with a parachute and you're thinking, this isn't working, might as well take it off.


Exactly the right thing to do if the parachute ain't working - https://vimeo.com/280184515


*Skydiver forced to cut away main parachute, low. Lands Reserve on hay bale!*


If he hadn't cut away his non working parachute, he would be dead.  But he had the wisdom to know that a non working parachute was useless, so he ditched it.  Top man, and then landed on his feet on a bale!

----------


## Neil Howie

> If he hadn't cut away his non working parachute, he would be dead.  But he had the wisdom to know that a non working parachute was useless, so he ditched it.  Top man, and then landed on his feet on a bale!


touche!

Yes if your parachute's not working use a parachute.

OK, so still a little unclear on your plans but here goes. (and maybe it might come down to it one day so who know...)

We drop furlough, masks, no more lockdown - other than everyone above the age of 65 has to stay at home. (I'm assuming you're not that heartless)

What you will have everywhere is a rapidly escalating spread. r number goes crazy.

So let's assume we see much higher than April levels of infection.  Do you still accept people with coronavirus into hospital or do you triage them?  What's your plan?

----------


## orkneycadian

As stated before, if any snowflakes want to wrap themselves in alcohol soaked cotton wool, and lock themselves away, feel free. But they have to fund that lifestyle choice themselves.

----------


## orkneycadian

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...-fife-54571043

*Coronavirus: Pubs urged to do whatever it takes to avoid closure*
_
"Pub and hotel owners are being urged to do whatever it takes to avoid closing down amid the coronavirus pandemic."

_
Er, open as normal?

----------


## Neil Howie

> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...-fife-54571043
> 
> *Coronavirus: Pubs urged to do whatever it takes to avoid closure*
> _
> "Pub and hotel owners are being urged to do whatever it takes to avoid closing down amid the coronavirus pandemic."
> 
> _
> Er, open as normal?



no comment on your proposed plan?  No estimated deaths, no long term casualties?

----------


## Fulmar

They are all dying of other things according to orkneycadian.

----------


## orkneycadian

> no comment on your proposed plan?  No estimated deaths, no long term casualties?


Don't you read the postings?  Those that wish to, wrap themselves up in alcohol soaked cotton wool and stay at home at their own expense.  The rest get on with it.  Deaths are recorded only as *due* to conoravirus and not *with* conoravirus.  So right away, the media divide the number they are using by 20, and we are down at about 2k territory.  And we start paying attention to the 23 causes of death that were above conoravirus in England in August, and put everything back into perspective.

----------


## Scunner

question  =  Do we need 10/12 people on testing duty in Thurso?

----------


## Fulmar

Orkneycadian, your splitting of hairs is beyond belief with your 'dues' and 'withs'. When someone has terminal cancer, quite often what will ultimately carry them off is organ failure or pneumonia, not the actual cancer. So do you then say that is what the poor person died of rather than the cancer- no, of course not. Without cancer the person would not have died and without Covid infection, people would not be dying at that particular moment either.

----------


## orkneycadian

There is, or should be, a tremendous difference between Due and With.  It was Matt Hancock himself who presented the example of someone who tested positive in March, being run over by a bus in June, and having the death certificate "mention" Convid-19.  The government themselves have stated that only about 4-5% of "withs" are "dues".  That's a tremendous difference.

----------


## Fulmar

Right then, here is a set of common circumstances that often happen. Say there is someone with advanced cancer who has a non existent immune system due to possibly months of chemo and an immune system that has been attempting to combat the tumours, who now develops a recurrent infection that does not respond to antibiotics due to all the above and who sadly dies due to that (please note there are two 'dues' in that sentence)! So my question is, what would you say the person died of if you were issuing a death certificate? If the person had not had cancer and had been in rude health, they probably (a) would not have got the recurrent infection in the first place (b) would have had a functioning immune system that could have dealt with it and (c) if that was not the case, then antibiotics would have kicked the infection into touch. Did they die of cancer or not?
Now apply this to a Covid patient who say has type 1 diabetes that is normally well controlled and who is rigorous with their blood tests and insulin injections. That person gets Covid (and as we know, any infection can throw things off course for someone with diabetes, never mind Covid but who would usually survive such an infection) and sadly also becomes very ill and dies. What, in your view did this person die off? As far as I'm concerned it is Covid since without that, he or she would still be walking about and leading their life with their diabetes well under control.
There are going on for 44,000 people in the UK who have died from Covid 19.

----------


## orkneycadian

OK, so in the first circumstance, the person with advanced cancer died of cancer.  Alas, it was in an advanced state, and many more people die of cancer than of (due or with) conoravirus.  Its a sad fact, but people have been dying of cancer for centuries, probably millenia, and they were doing that long before convid came along.  In fact, in my post in http://forum.caithness.org/showthrea...75#post1194875 there were at least 4 specific cancers in the "top 10 causes of death" in England in August.  Convid was in 23rd place.

In the second circumstance, the type 1 diabetic died of Convid.  Type 1 diabetes is not generally a fatal condition, providing it is managed well.  So I would agree with your opinion.

To put forward a few more, similar examples.....

An old dear of 93 lives in a care home.  She has had dementia / Alzheimers for the last 10 years, and over the last few months, her condition has deteriorated to the extent that she doesn't recognise any of her family, or any of the care home staff.  She views them all as trying to "do bad things to her", and has been refusing personal care, food and drinks for the last week.  For the last few days of her life, she just "gave up".  On the day before she died, the care home carried out a screening for Convid of all residents.  The old dear tested positive, yet she showed no symptoms.  Even up to the point she died, she was not exhibiting shortness of breath, coughing or fever.  She just slipped away, unfortunately, as so many with that condition do.  As she tested positive for Convid within 28 days of her death, she is included in the statistics for "deaths involving conoravirus"

Bob is 43 and in rudely good health.  One day, he notices he has all the published symptoms of conoravirus.  He phones up and books a test, and is asked to drive to a test centre 50 miles away from his home.  He duly takes the test, and the centre staff advise him they will text him the results when they are available, but in the meantime, he should go straight home and self isolate.  On the way home, on a blind summit, Bob finds a driver on the wrong side of the road, recklessly overtaking another vehicle.  Despite his valiant attempts at evasive action, Bob and the reckless driver are involved in a head on collision.  Tragically, Bob is killed instantly.  Several hours later, after being cut from the mangled wreckage and being taken off to the morgue, Bob's phone beeps.  Its the lab with his test result.  It was positive.  Bob's death is included in the Conoravirus statistics for that day as he had tested positive with 28 days of his untimely death.

Jimmy is 71 and ordinarily enjoys good health.  Last month, he had a bit of a cough, so went for a test.  It was positive.  He did as instructed and self isolated for a couple of weeks.  His cough got better and within a week he felt right as rain again.  Yesterday morning, Jimmy's daughter found him dead in bed when her phone calls were not answered and she went round to see if he was OK.  Turns out, he had a massive and catastrophic stroke in his sleep, and died from it very quickly.  As he tested positive for coronavirus 3 and a half weeks before, he is included in the statistics.

You get the gist.....

----------


## Fulmar

I feel we have made some progress as before, you were insisting that anyone with any pre-existing health condition somehow did not count and should be excluded. So, your figures were reduced down to a truly ridiculous low level which clearly did not reflect what actually happened in our hospitals which would not have been full and overwhelmed if it was only the fantasy numbers that you came up with.

----------


## orkneycadian

Not at all, Fulmar. I had always pointed to the Government figure if 4%.  Hence the statement that the real figure was in the 2 to 2.5 k region.

----------


## Fulmar

So why were the hospitals so overwhelmed then in many parts of the UK? If the people were not sick with Covid, what was happening- was it all made up? You can't have it both ways.

----------


## Neil Howie

> Don't you read the postings?  Those that wish to, wrap themselves up in alcohol soaked cotton wool and stay at home at their own expense.  The rest get on with it.  Deaths are recorded only as *due* to conoravirus and not *with* conoravirus.  So right away, the media divide the number they are using by 20, and we are down at about 2k territory.  And we start paying attention to the 23 causes of death that were above conoravirus in England in August, and put everything back into perspective.


Fails to understand that people are staying at home to protect other people not themselves...
  Bizarrely compares coronavirus to smoking.
Has no plans to protect the sick or elderly, will happily throw them to the wolves. 
Worst of all can't see the impact on the NHS of an out-of-control coronavirus spread

----------


## ecb

Regarding NHS dentistry, the good news is that the range of NHS dental procedures available is due to return to pre-pandemic levels on 1 November. 

The bad news is that NHS dentists' fears of struggle to meet demand.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...-fife-54631039

----------


## orkneycadian

> So why were the hospitals so overwhelmed then in many parts of the UK? If the people were not sick with Covid, what was happening- was it all made up? You can't have it both ways.


Overwhelmed? With boredom? I know if hospital staff who say they have never drunk so much tea in their lives. In England, some NHS staff faced disciplinary action for setting up improvised 10 pin bowling alleys in hospital corridors on nightshift to alleviate the boredom. 

The much publicised Nightingale hospitals still remain empty of Conoravirus patients. 

What is this overwhelming you speak of?

----------


## Neil Howie

> Overwhelmed? With boredom? I know if hospital staff who say they have never drunk so much tea in their lives. In England, some NHS staff faced disciplinary action for setting up improvised 10 pin bowling alleys in hospital corridors on nightshift to alleviate the boredom. <br>
> <br>
> The much publicised Nightingale hospitals still remain empty of Conoravirus patients. <br>
> <br>
> What is this overwhelming you speak of?


We enjoy our privileged position of remoteness while other areas are affected differently, but for how long?

Link 1 
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...surge-12111689
Sky News todayTracy Taylor, the CEO of Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, said it had been a "difficult decision" to *postpone some appointments*, but added there are more than 200 patients with coronavirus in hospital in the city, and "*everyday this is increasing by nearly another full ward of people."*
Link 2
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-patients.html*First Nightingale REOPENS: Manchester to open mothballed unit in preparation for Tier 3 lockdown* 
as hospitals in neighbouring *Liverpool* are already treating *MORE Covid-19 patients than during first peak*
Link 3
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-10-22/...demic-in-aprilWriting on Twitter, Dr Tristan Cope said: "Sadly we are now treating more patients in hospital with Covid-19 @LivHospitals than we did in April at the peak of the first wave and numbers continue to rise."

So important that people in #liverpool and @LivCityRegion adhere to social distancing restrictions."

Paul Brant, cabinet member for adult health and social care at Liverpool City Council, said *intensive care capacity in the city was over 90% full*, with Covid-19 patients making up an increasing proportion of patients.
Link 4
https://www.mylondon.news/news/healt...being-19131204*London Covid: Number of people being admitted to London hospitals with coronavirus more than doubles in 20 days*

A leading expert has said more restrictions may be needed *to stop the NHS being 'completely consumed'“*

I really want to emphasise that it is the over-60s that really worries us most because these are the people who become severely ill with Covid-19, they are more likely to be admitted to hospital, if they are admitted to hospital they stay in hospital for longer and sadly they are more difficult to save,” he said.

He said that infections among younger people are now penetrating those older age groups.
Link 5:
https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/...id-19-19136796Surge in seriously unwell Covid-19 patients in Bradford leads to *suspension of some hospital appointments*

Around 100 Covid-19 patients are in Bradford Royal Infirmary and some are seriously unwell

Link 6
https://www.lep.co.uk/health/coronav...-first-3011326Lancashire PostOf the 114 coronavirus patients currently occupying beds at RPH and Chorley Hospital, 14 are in critical care, *filling half of the unit’s capacit*y.

And with a number of the other ICU beds being taken up by non-Covid patients, there are *worries the hospital’s high-dependency facilities are fast becoming stretched* - something which may have an impact on elective surgery if availability of places becomes critical.

One member of staff said: “At the moment we can cope. But right now we are still continuing with elective surgery and other types of work that occupy critical care beds.

“But what could happen if Covid carries on getting worse is it could result in elective and non-urgent work being postponed. Hopefully that won’t happen.”

*But other medics at RPH say ICU has come under so much pressure at times during this second wave that it has had to overflow into a geriatric ward*, reducing the number of ordinary beds available at the hospital for elderly non-Covid patients.

Link 7
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/h...-b1203983.htmlBradford
Bradford Teaching Hospitals said it was being *forced to stop non-urgent surgery and outpatient appointments for two weeks* from Tuesday because of the numbers of *severely ill Covid-19 patients*.

In statement the hospital said it had seen a spike in admissions in the last few days with 100 coronavirus patients now on the wards with 30 patients needing oxygen support – the highest number of any hospital in the northeast and Yorkshire region.

The trust is the latest to announce cancellations, joining the University Hospitals of Birmingham, Nottingham University Hospitals and Plymouth Hospitals as well as those in Liverpool and Manchester where hundreds of Covid patients are being looked after.

{I think this may be the same hospital as mentioned at link 5, but it gives a bit more detail on other hospitals}Had to edit fomatting, so that's all for now!

----------


## Fulmar

Well, as my daughter was actually involved on the nursing side in London (and I described it previously) then I think I do know what it was like a lot better than you from what she told me. It makes me so angry when you write like you do- as Neil says, from your place of safety on Orkney- ignoring all the televised reports (and interviews with) from the hospitals of exhausted staff who were themselves made ill with the stress of it, if not the virus itself- and many did get the virus, my daughter included. You should be ashamed to denigrate NHS staff the way you consistently do on here but no, it's all just a really stupid, point scoring game with you.
Post a verified link then about the so called 'bowling alleys'- let's all see it. It's easy though to say 'I heard this and that'- where did you hear it when you live in your ivory tower on Orkney?

----------


## orkneycadian

> Fails to understand that people are staying at home to protect other people not themselves...
>   Bizarrely compares coronavirus to smoking.
> Has no plans to protect the sick or elderly, will happily throw them to the wolves. 
> Worst of all can't see the impact on the NHS of an out-of-control coronavirus spread


Out of interst Neil, and using the figures for England for August, solely on the grounds they are so readily available, if you propose to do much for the 23rd cause of death, what should we be doing for those who die from the 22 more common causes? If we fail to take the same actions for those, then by your definition, are we throwing cancer patients,  stroke patients, et al, to the wolves as well?

----------


## orkneycadian

> We enjoy our privileged position of remoteness while other areas are affected differently, but for how long?
> 
> Link 1 
> https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...surge-12111689
> Sky News todayTracy Taylor, the CEO of Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, said it had been a "difficult decision" to *postpone some appointments*, but added there are more than 200 patients with coronavirus in hospital in the city, and "*everyday this is increasing by nearly another full ward of people."*
> Link 2
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-patients.html*First Nightingale REOPENS: Manchester to open mothballed unit in preparation for Tier 3 lockdown* 
> as hospitals in neighbouring *Liverpool* are already treating *MORE Covid-19 patients than during first peak*
> Link 3
> ...


I think perhaps, you may have missed Fulmars reference to the past tense when discussing the overwhelming of hospitals. So staying with the last few months to begin with.  Of 16 or 17000 beds of capacity in the various pop up hospitals, I understand from wikipedia, that 54 convid patients were treated at London, and 100 at Manchester. All the others saw none.  By my counting, that's a peak occupancy of 0.9%

Turning to the present, I understand that one of the pop up hospitals has been placed on standby, but I don't think it has, as yet, received any patients.

----------


## orkneycadian

> Well, as my daughter was actually involved on the nursing side in London (and I described it previously) then I think I do know what it was like a lot better than you from what she told me. It makes me so angry when you write like you do- as Neil says, from your place of safety on Orkney- ignoring all the televised reports (and interviews with) from the hospitals of exhausted staff who were themselves made ill with the stress of it, if not the virus itself- and many did get the virus, my daughter included. You should be ashamed to denigrate NHS staff the way you consistently do on here but no, it's all just a really stupid, point scoring game with you.
> Post a verified link then about the so called 'bowling alleys'- let's all see it. It's easy though to say 'I heard this and that'- where did you hear it when you live in your ivory tower on Orkney?


Hopefully this doesn't come as too much of a shock to you Fulmar, but Orcadians, and their family members, have a bit of a reputation of moving away for work, careers and family reasons, a significant proportion end up in care work, or working for the NHS. So it's not just Fulmarville that has connections to workers in care elsewhere.  

And hopefully, it's also not too much of shock to learn that these wandering Orcadians, like your daughter, also report home with their news and experiences.

----------


## Fulmar

Where is the link?

----------


## orkneycadian

What are you expecting a link to?  There's more ways of people communicating than using webpages you know.

----------


## Fulmar

I think all will know just what to make of this.

----------


## orkneycadian

Ah, sorry, my mistake.  I didn't realise we were meant to transcribe all communications with people and publish them on a website.  I'll be more diligent in future.

Now, I have been furiously Googling "Fulmar's daughter's account of hospital life in London during Conoravirus" but nothing is coming up.  Could you post the link to these conversations please? 

Thanks very much.

----------


## orkneycadian

In a worrying development, Conoravirus has moved up to be the 19th most common cause of death in England;

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...il.htmlhttp://
*

England and Wales coronavirus fatalities rose in September for first time since April... but it's still only the NINETEENTH most common cause of death 
*

On the plus side, in Wales, it's dropped down to 24th place.

----------


## Fulmar

This good enough for you orkneycadian? It's on the BBC website right now and suggest you read it.
It's called 'People on the edge of exhaustion' and here's some of it (my daughter was also re-deployed, but no, she is not in print): 
*"I still have nightmares most nights about being completely out of my depth."*


*Gemma, a ward nurse in Northern Ireland, was redeployed to a critical care unit at the end of March when the first wave of coronavirus struck.*


*"I had never looked after a critically ill intensive care patient in my life," she says.*


*"I just thought, I'm coming in here and I'm going to die. I'm going to catch Covid and I'm going to be one of those patients in the beds."*


*As the second wave of the pandemic takes deep root across parts of the UK, thousands of NHS workers are struggling to recover from what they have already been through.*


*"We were all in PPE all the time," recalls Nathan, a senior intensive care nurse at a hospital in the Midlands. "All you can see is people's eyes, you can't see anything else."*


*He describes trying to help junior members of staff survive long and difficult days.*


*"And I'd see these eyes as big as saucers saying help me, do something. Make this right. Fix this."*


*"The pressure was insane, and the anxiety just got me," he says. "I couldn't sleep, and I couldn't eat, I was sick before work, I was shaking before I got into my car in the morning."*


*Nathan ended up having time off with severe anxiety, but he is now back at the hospital, waiting for the beds to fill up again.*

----------


## Fulmar

They dont sound to me like folk who had either the time or the energy to set up bowling alleys in the hospital corridors as alleged by orkneycadian.

----------


## orkneycadian

Yup, there have been articles like that since MArch and beyond.  And there have also been the "other articles";

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style...-cancelled-nhs

Which dates from April.

and from June;

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...sis-empty.html

Now, bear in mind, that before March, our hospitals were pretty stretched at the best of times already.  The Nightingales / Louisa Jordan / Dragons Heart were meant to catch all that overspill.  154 patients out of a total capacity of 16 or 17,000

----------


## Neil Howie

> Yup, there have been articles like that since MArch and beyond.  And there have also been the "other articles";
> 
> Now, bear in mind, that before March, our hospitals were pretty stretched at the best of times already.  The Nightingales / Louisa Jordan / Dragons Heart were meant to catch all that overspill.  154 patients out of a total capacity of 16 or 17,000


Covid-19 moved to first cause of death in New York before measures kicked in.  I see you're banned now so no point arguing further, you clearly can't see we want to keep it (further) down by implementing control.  You against the world eh?  Cases in USA continue to rise, could be a big week.

Expect to see more headlines like this:

*Utahs hospitals prepare to ration care as a record number of coronavirus patients flood their ICUs*

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/10/...navirus-cases/

*'People are dying every night': Staff at overwhelmed Wisconsin hospital urge people to take coronavirus seriously*

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/...ly/3669849001/
Maybe worth posting in case orkneycadian is still watching, kind of sums it up?

"I think the thing that's most painful for them right now, and most challenging for them, is while they're working their butts off  and they're working hard  it's the fact that they don't know if the community sees how serious this is," Heywood said. "They see the politicization of it, and then they see the repercussions of what's happening when they do their job every day.

"And they're watching people die."

Eggman, who's worked as a registered nurse for 20 years, said he thinks anyone who spent just 15 minutes with him on "any given day" would be taking every possible precaution to avoid catching or spreading coronavirus.
"It's not just about you," he said. "It's about the people you care about, as well."

Eggman has also listened to the final words of COVID-19 patients.

*"We have many patients who have come in here and their last words before we put a in breathing tube are they didn't realize it was as bad as it was," he said.*

----------


## The Horseman

I am trying to get ‘The gist’ of what is going on here.....
Why was OC banned?
I dealt with many very serious emergencies as ‘a worker’ and as a ‘Senior Manager’.  Some people get used to these ‘things’.  Others who are in usually quiet places, do not.
For some it is distressing, for others for whom it becomes a daily routine just ‘gets on with it’.   And people ‘have to get on with it’ to protect others!  If not, how would we survive.
And let me add...I see many quotes here just now are from the United States....  Believe it or not....some of this is Political.....churned out by CNN, copied by BBC.
I am not saying that Covid is not serious......but generally, Hospitals are near capacity all the time.  A year ago a friend was taken into hospital in a beautiful area outside Toronto and lay in the hallway for some 4/5 days.   Suddenly the Staff who are running ‘flat out’ most of the time  get an influx of patients and its chaos!  
Take a look at the UK stats for Ambulance wait times for 999 calls. Sometimes 12/24 hours.
My Daughter works in a Hosp and was ‘re deployed’.  She stood up and did her work, and is still at it.  
I think the word is Simply ‘Dedication’.
I read some of the comments. In PPE all the time..,seeing eyes.......etc etc.
It’s an education and a learning period for all of us.  Regards.

p.s.  I just read the Utah story..they are Democrats and blaming Prez Trump thru CNN reporting, who is Anti Prez Trump.

----------


## dc1

i was thinking the same horseman why was he banned i dont agree with alot he says but thats his opinion

----------


## The Horseman

Yes DC1.   I have  read a bit more and NH’s descriptors are common terms in a busy Hosp.   People die there.  People are under pressure, who perhaps have not dealt with these situations and have have never seen death.
And the UK’s Nat Health stories....they had extra hospital facilities set up and haven't used them!
Perhaps Bill Fernie could advise why OC was banned.
It will give us all ‘guidance’ on what is ‘not acceptable’. This is a Private Board...ty

----------


## Fulmar

Like many, I am wondering which tier we might be in come Monday and have just read this. However, I can't see that it is truly level one if the ban on 6 people from 2 different households meeting indoors continues to apply.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has indicated that some councils currently under Level 2-type restrictions could be moved into the next tier down. However, although the Level 1 definition includes six people from two households meeting indoors this would not apply to any council that finds itself in that category on 2 November. That said, hospitality would be able to open until 22:30.



Highland




Moray




Orkney




Shetland




Western Isles

----------


## The Horseman

Yes, I see your system is as confusing as ours.

----------


## sprint95m

> That said, hospitality would be able to open until 22:30.


If I may, to clarify, what may seem like a small point but is actually very significant to us employed in hospitality,
in Level One, hospitality is allowed to be open until 21:30 with all customers to leave by 22:30.

Thanks.

----------


## aqua

This is my first post in some time. I stopped visiting and posting largely because I was tired of serial extreme opinions from a small number of people. I couldn’t be bothered reading it, never mind responding to it. I see one person has been banned, which is sad and has killed off most of the ‘discussion’.  :: 

I don’t claim to be a particularly informative or entertaining poster, or a very good debater, but I am still here, for now at least.

----------


## Neil Howie

Meanwhile in Sweden...




> Intensive care in the Stockholm Region is under severe pressure. On Tuesday, the intensive care units were 99 percent full. This is the first time this has happened during the pandemic.
> 
> - These are activities that are about life and death, so the situation is very serious, says Björn Persson, operations manager for perioperative medicine and intensive care at Karolinska.
> 
> The director of health and medical care, Björn Eriksson, says that he turned to the National Board of Health and Welfare for staff reinforcement.
> 
> In the Stockholm region, there were 160 intensive care units on Tuesday, including intensive care for children, which were 99 percent full. Both by covids and by other patients who need the most advanced emergency care.

----------


## ecb

What do people thing about the cancellation of next year's Higher and Advanced Higher exams?  Instead a new model that has been developed and awards will be based on teacher judgement of evidence of learner attainment.

I saw a comment attached to a newspaper story about this, which seems (to me) to have a grain of truth about it:

Employer; "so when did you get your 5 advanced grade Highers at A* "
Interviewee; " it was in 2021 actually"
Employer; "oh! I see, don't call us we'll call you"

----------


## Alrock

> What do people thing about the cancellation of next year's Higher and Advanced Higher exams?  Instead a new model that has been developed and awards will be based on teacher judgement of evidence of learner attainment.


Good year to be a teacher... Lots of bribes coming your way...  ::

----------


## aqua

The new variant of coronavirus is scary. Can its advance be halted without a vaccine? With an estimated increase in R of 0.4, I fear it may be unstoppable before mass vaccination nears completion.

----------


## ecb

Stricter lockdown rules for Scotland:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55379632

But will people follow the new restrictions.  I saw the following humourous comment in a newspaper, about people's attitudes to the Covid rules:

"They break the rules;
You bend the rules;
I have a very good reason for what I am doing."

It seems to have a grain of truth in it.

----------


## aqua

Bending rules a bit isnt as bad as flagrantly disobeying them. 

Err, oops, I think I may have just provided an example of your comment.  ::

----------


## aqua

> The new variant of coronavirus is scary. Can its advance be halted without a vaccine? With an estimated increase in R of 0.4, I fear it may be unstoppable before mass vaccination nears completion.


Gulp! The increase in R is now being quoted as being in the range 0.4 to 0.9. The latter would be deadly, and probably make it unstoppable without near-total vaccination.

----------


## aqua

I note that Trump criticised the London and SE England lockdown on Twitter almost immediately. Thank goodness the American people saw sense and voted out the self-obsessed evil buffoon decisively.

----------


## Fulmar

I agree that it is absolutely scary and people are still not taking it seriously, including in Caithness. I just don't understand that mentality. Lets hope that the new measures will curb the rampant spread.

----------


## pat

That's post to Europe now halted immediately due to the new strain and parcelforce also have closed Turkey and Canada too.  

How long before the food is not allowed into Britain due to the vehicles/drivers getting contaminated?

----------


## Corky Smeek

What is driving me nuts is the media doing vox pop interviews with people who moan about not being able to go to the pub or to a Christmas party or to visit family at the other end of the country. They just don't seem to get the potential consequences of allowing those activities.

----------


## Fulmar

I don't understand how people just don't get it. The only ones I feel for are those on their own like my widowed sister in law who has no family anywhere local to where she lives in Scotland. She is stoical though and like she says, once Christmas day is over, she can then meet a friend for walks as she has been doing but doesn't want to intrude on anyone on the actual day as the friend does have family. Also, I do feel for those who don't have long to live and think that if those who were planning to visit them have been isolating beforehand then that should be allowed.

----------


## ecb

Seen on the BBC web site.  "Covid-19: Five ways to stay positive through the winter":

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55264224

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## Neil Howie

How could we have ended up in another lockdown?

Oh yeah...

From "Metro"" in Dec 2020



Link

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## ecb

"Covid vaccines: Boris Johnson pledges surplus to poorer countries at G7"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56117120

Apparently some people are complaining that it is not enough.  For example:

"The UK should donate vaccines to developing countries now rather than waiting until it has a surplus, the new head of the World Trade Organization has told the BBC. ... ":

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56135778

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