1.3 In assessing the importance of the current London Gatwick to Inverness route in generating these types of benefits we conducted, in October 2001, a telephone based survey of around 260 representatives from two of the key beneficiaries of the service: local businesses and the tourist sector.

1.4 Our survey was aimed at assessing the types of benefits identified above by addressing various critical issues in terms of the:

1.5 Our survey results were subsequently reviewed at a workshop with representatives of these two groups to assess the robustness of our findings and to confirm, on a qualitative basis, the impacts identified.

1.6 Respondents to our survey indicated that annually their staff, customers and suppliers undertake - in total - 28,230 round trips. This represents around 38% of the current level of round trips on the London Gatwick to Inverness route.

1.7 In addition freight and packages usage - for both in and out bound delivery - was identified as another important benefit of the current route.

1.8 In regard to businesses our results also highlighted the importance of interlining. For example we have estimated that 28% of all business trips involve interlining at Gatwick from within the UK and 23% from outside the UK.

1.9 Similarly - in respect of the tourist sector - over 50% of our respondents customers using the route are international tourists who depend upon the availability of interlining at Gatwick to arrive in (and depart from) the study area.

1.10 In the context of the above it is not unsurprising, therefore, that many of our respondents were able to identify a series of short to medium term actions they might take were the route to be withdrawn, including:

1.11 The loss of the service will impact directly upon Inverness airports operation. The extent and nature of this impact is difficult to predict given the opportunities available to substitute the loss of passengers from this route to alternative sources. Even so if the reduction in throughput was at a level of 50,000 round trips - as indicated by our survey results - this is likely to lead to an immediate potential loss of direct employment at the airport of around 62 employees or 25% of the current workforce.

1.12 Analysis of our findings suggests, however, that the major impact of cessation is likely to fall upon businesses in the region that depend upon this service to serve the South East as well as for domestic and international interlining of staff, suppliers and customers.

1.13 In total we suggest that, in the short to medium term, around 719 jobs may be at risk from the closure of the current service.

1.14 It is also important to recognise that, while the current dependency (and thus benefits) of this route by businesses may be measured by the loss in employment implied by our results, additional negative effects of cessation (as confirmed by our workshop attendees) may also include reduced:

1.15 In respect of the tourist sector we have identified several likely negative impacts upon current operations including the loss of:

1.16 In total our analysis suggests that around 253 jobs may be at risk.

1.17 It is also apparent, from both our survey results and workshop discussions, that certain “flagship” or premier accommodation facilities will be significantly affected by cessation to the extent of considering closure in the long term.

1.18 The future negative impacts upon the tourist sector may, as a result, be further accentuated as less high value foreign tourists are attracted to the area.

1.19 These negative impacts will have further multiplier impacts within the economy. We estimate these to be in the region of 21 jobs at risk for Inverness Airport and its supplier base, 252 jobs at risk for businesses and 86 jobs for the tourist sector.

1.20 The short to medium term impact of cessation will be significant. Overall the total jobs at risk in the region - as indicated in the table overleaf - are likely to be around 1,393 representing around 0.85 % of total HIE area employees.

1.21 While in themselves these impacts indicate the importance of the current route to the regional economy the longer term effect of closure may be greater in terms of the perceptional influence upon UK, European and Global businesses, investors and tourists behaviour towards a peripheral area with minimal interlining and premier routes from the South East of England.